GPU/ASIC和网络设备
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明年数据中心资本开支增长将超50%!摩根大通:AI相关股票盈利预期被低估了
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-18 07:49
Core Insights - Morgan Stanley significantly raised its forecast for data center capital expenditure growth, indicating that the market has severely underestimated the profit potential of AI-related stocks [1][2][4] Group 1: Capital Expenditure Forecasts - The growth rate for data center capital expenditure in 2025 has been revised upward from 55% to approximately 65%, driven by large cloud service providers increasing investments in AI infrastructure [2][3] - For 2026, data center capital expenditure growth is expected to exceed 50%, a substantial increase from the previous estimate of 30%, translating to over $150 billion in incremental spending [1][2] - Historical data shows that capital expenditure growth expectations tend to be revised upward throughout the year, and this trend is likely to continue for 2026 and 2027 [3] Group 2: Revenue Potential for Chip Suppliers - Analysts' consensus forecasts for companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and Marvell do not fully reflect the upcoming $150 billion to $175 billion in new capital expenditure, indicating a potential upside in revenue projections [4][6] - The strong and urgent demand for AI computing could lead to data center capital expenditure growth reaching 60% or more, which would necessitate upward revisions of profit expectations for these chip giants [4] Group 3: Order Backlogs and Emerging Buyers - Morgan Stanley highlighted that the market has misinterpreted the backlog value of companies like Broadcom and Nvidia, underestimating the speed at which these backlogs will convert into actual revenue [6] - The focus on the top four or five U.S. cloud providers overlooks significant spending from emerging players, including neoclouds and sovereign AI projects, which are becoming crucial pillars of AI chip demand [6]