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海光和曙光合并怎么看?
2025-06-10 15:26
Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the merger between **Haiguang Information** and **Zhongke Shuguang**. Zhongke Shuguang holds a 28% stake in Haiguang Information, which had a market value of approximately **RMB 310 billion** before suspension, while Shuguang's stake is valued at around **RMB 90 billion**. The market sentiment significantly impacts Shuguang's stock price, often viewed as a shadow stock of Haiguang Information [1][2][3]. Core Business Insights - **Zhongke Shuguang's Business**: - The company operates in IT equipment and software system integration, with projected revenues of **RMB 12 billion** and profits of **RMB 1.6-2 billion** for software integration, leading to an estimated valuation of **RMB 356 billion** including its stake in Haiguang [1][3]. - **Haiguang Information's Core Business**: - The main business segments are **CPU** and **GPU** (referred to as DCU). The CPU segment is expected to generate **RMB 70 billion** in revenue with a profit of **RMB 20 billion**, benefiting from the scarcity of X86 architecture, projecting a **30% growth** in the coming years [1][5]. - The GPU segment is anticipated to achieve **RMB 90 billion** in revenue, with profits of **RMB 40 billion**. The new product, **Deep Calculation 3**, is expected to ship **50,000 units** at a price of **RMB 90,000** each, while the previous model, **Deep Calculation 2**, is expected to ship **100,000 units** at **RMB 45,000** each [1][6]. Merger Details - The merger involves Haiguang issuing shares to acquire Zhongke Shuguang, with a share exchange price of **RMB 79** for Shuguang and **RMB 143** for Haiguang, resulting in a dilution rate of approximately **7%** for Haiguang's shareholders [1][7][8]. Shareholder Impact - Post-merger, Haiguang's shareholders will experience a **12%-15% increase** in value despite a **7% dilution** of their shares. Shuguang's shareholders benefit from a **30% premium** on the acquisition price [8][9]. New Company Structure and Valuation - The merged entity, referred to as **New Haiguang**, will consist of three main business segments: server boards, CPU, and GPU. The GPU segment is expected to be the largest contributor, with a potential market valuation of **RMB 2.4 trillion** based on a **60x PE ratio** [10][11]. - Future growth potential for New Haiguang is heavily reliant on the market's valuation of its GPU business, with projections indicating a possible market cap of **RMB 4.2 trillion** if a **75x PE ratio** is applied [11]. Stock Price Predictions - The stock price is expected to rise by approximately **10%** due to the merger's added value of **RMB 350 billion to 400 billion** and the positive market trends during the suspension period [13]. Changes in Shareholding Structure - After the merger, the largest shareholder of New Haiguang will be **Chengdu Industrial Investment** and related institutions, holding **16%** of the shares, while the shareholding of the **Institute of Computing Technology** will decrease to **4.8%** [12]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the merger's implications for both companies and their stakeholders.