Red Rock Resorts (NasdaqGS:RRR) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 10, 2026 04:30 PM ET Speaker0Good afternoon and welcome to Red Rock Resorts' fourth quarter and full year 2025 conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Please note this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Stephen Cootey, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer of Red Rock Resorts. Please go ahead.Speaker1Thank you, Operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Tha ...

Core Insights - Golden Entertainment reported a quarterly loss of $0.18 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.08, and compared to earnings of $0.18 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of -125.00% [1] - The company posted revenues of $154.82 million for the quarter ended September 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.98% and down from $161.23 million year-over-year [2] - Golden Entertainment shares have declined approximately 32.8% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 15.6% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.13 on revenues of $167.48 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.31 on revenues of $648.32 million [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Golden Entertainment was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Gaming industry, to which Golden Entertainment belongs, is currently in the top 33% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - GameSquare Holdings, Inc., another company in the same industry, is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.03 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +78.6% [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenues exceeding $1 billion for the third quarter, with EBITDA at $322 million, maintaining a margin of 37% [4][17] - The total leverage ratio improved from 2.8 times to 1.5 times following the sale of a stake in FanDuel, with lease-adjusted leverage declining from 3.2 times to 2.0 times [23][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Las Vegas Locals segment generated revenues of $211 million and EBITDA of $92 million, with year-over-year growth of 2% in both metrics when excluding the Orleans [5][6] - The Midwest and South segment achieved its strongest third-quarter performance in three years, with revenues rising 3% to $539 million and EBITDA growing to $202 million, exceeding 2% over the prior year [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The broader Las Vegas Locals market saw gaming revenue growth of over 3% in the last 12 months, supported by solid wage growth of more than 6% in Southern Nevada [7][8] - The company noted improvements in play from both core and retail customers, indicating a positive trend in customer demand across the country [12][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital investments to enhance property offerings, with a budget of $100 million per year for growth capital projects [14][21] - Significant developments include the $750 million resort in Norfolk, Virginia, scheduled to open in November 2027, and the Cadence Crossing project in Las Vegas, set to replace the Joker's Wild Casino [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the Southern Nevada economy and the ongoing growth potential of the Las Vegas Locals business [9][18] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in the fourth quarter, supported by improving customer trends and ongoing capital investments [12][24] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $160 million in stock during the quarter and paid $15 million in dividends, returning a total of $637 million to shareholders year-to-date [17][22] - The company is maintaining a disciplined approach to marketing spend, despite increased competition in some markets [56] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the main drivers of weakness in the destination business? - Management noted that the weakness is primarily in the destination business, particularly at the Orleans, while core and locals customers continue to perform well [26][28] Question: Can you share thoughts on the M&A pipeline? - Management indicated a disciplined approach to M&A, monitoring opportunities but not seeing a significant increase in pitch books [31] Question: How did the Midwest and South properties perform? - Performance was generally broad-based, with notable growth at Treasure Chest, indicating strong results across the portfolio [36] Question: What is the expected impact of the tax bill? - Management believes the tax bill will provide incremental benefits but has not quantified its impact on revenue and EBITDA [66] Question: How is the company managing disruption from renovations? - Management stated that while there is disruption, performance at properties like Suncoast remains in line with prior year results, and they are managing through the construction effectively [60][62] Question: What is the outlook for the balance sheet and leverage? - Management plans to maintain leverage around 1.5 to 2 times, gradually increasing as capital plans are executed, while remaining prudent about future opportunities [90][92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenues exceeding $1,000,000,000 for the third quarter, with EBITDAR at $322,000,000, maintaining a margin of 37% consistent with the prior year [4][17] - The total leverage ratio improved from 2.8 times to 1.5 times following the sale of a stake in FanDuel, with lease adjusted leverage declining from 3.2 times to 2.0 times [24][100] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Las Vegas Local segment generated revenues of $211,000,000 and EBITDAR of $92,000,000, with year-over-year growth of 2% in both revenues and EBITDAR when excluding the Orleans [5][6] - The Midwest and South segment achieved a 3% revenue increase to $539,000,000, with EBITDAR growing by over 2% [9][10] - The online segment is projected to achieve $60,000,000 in EBITDAR for the year, with expectations of approximately $30,000,000 for 2026 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The broader Las Vegas locals market saw gaming revenue growth of over 3% year-over-year, supported by solid wage growth exceeding 6% [6][7] - The Downtown Las Vegas segment's revenues and EBITDA remained stable, driven by strong play from Hawaiian customers despite lower hotel revenues [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital investments to enhance guest experiences, with a budget of $100,000,000 annually for growth capital projects [13][21] - Ongoing renovations at properties like Suncoast and Orleans are aimed at maintaining competitiveness in the market [12][46] - The company is pursuing significant growth opportunities, including a $750,000,000 resort development in Norfolk, Virginia, scheduled to open in November 2027 [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted continued strength in play from core customers and improving trends from retail customers, indicating a positive outlook for the fourth quarter [12][25] - The Southern Nevada economy is described as resilient and diversified, positioning the company well for future growth [8] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $160,000,000 in stock during the quarter and paid $15,000,000 in dividends, returning a total of $637,000,000 to shareholders year-to-date [17][22] - The company is maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation, with plans for ongoing share repurchases and dividends [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the main drivers of weakness in the destination business? - Management indicated that the weakness is primarily in the destination business, while core and local customers continue to perform well, with improvements in forward bookings noted [27][28] Question: Thoughts on the M&A pipeline? - The company is monitoring M&A opportunities but remains disciplined in its approach, focusing on the right assets at the right price [34][35] Question: Trends in the Midwest and South properties? - Results were broadly strong across the Midwest and South, with Treasure Chest noted for its continued growth [39][41] Question: How are the Vegas locals assets positioned from a CapEx perspective? - The company is confident in its Vegas locals assets, with ongoing renovations at Suncoast and plans for updates at Orleans to remain competitive [43][46] Question: Expectations for the impact of the tax bill? - Management expects incremental benefits from the tax bill but has not quantified the overall impact on revenue and EBITDAR [72][73] Question: How did the quarter play out month to month? - The quarter was steady, with some fluctuations due to holiday timing, but core trends remained consistent [77] Question: Any impact from the cybersecurity incident? - The cybersecurity incident did not impact business operations, and the company has cyber insurance to mitigate risks [90] Question: How is the balance sheet being optimized? - The company is maintaining a leverage target of around 2.5 times, with current leverage at 1.5 times, and is open to adjusting based on future opportunities [99][100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenues exceeding $1 billion for the third quarter, with EBITDA at $322 million, maintaining a margin of 37% consistent with the prior year [3][16] - The total leverage ratio improved from 2.8 times to 1.5 times following the sale of a 5% stake in FanDuel, while lease-adjusted leverage decreased from 3.2 times to 2.0 times [22][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Las Vegas Locals segment generated revenues of $211 million and EBITDA of $92 million, with year-over-year growth of 2% in both metrics when excluding the Orleans property [4][8] - The Midwest and South segment achieved its strongest third-quarter performance in three years, with revenues rising 3% to $539 million and EBITDA growing to $202 million, reflecting broad-based growth across the segment [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The broader Las Vegas Locals market saw gaming revenue growth of over 3% in the last 12 months, supported by solid wage growth exceeding 6% in Southern Nevada [5][6] - The Downtown Las Vegas segment's revenues and EBITDA remained stable compared to the prior year, driven by strong play from Hawaiian customers despite softness in destination business [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital investments to enhance guest experiences, with a budget of $100 million annually for growth capital projects, including expansions at Sky River Casino and Cadence Crossing [10][19] - The company plans to maintain a balanced approach to capital allocation, with intentions to repurchase approximately $150 million in stock quarterly while paying dividends [16][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential of the Las Vegas Locals business, citing ongoing improvements in customer demand and operational efficiencies [3][11] - The company noted that customer trends observed in the third quarter have continued into October, indicating a positive outlook for the fourth quarter [11][23] Other Important Information - The company completed $146 million in capital expenditures during the third quarter, bringing year-to-date expenditures to $440 million, with expectations to reach approximately $600 million for the year [18][19] - The company is undergoing renovations at several properties, including the IP Hotel and Orleans Hotel, to enhance competitiveness [12][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the main drivers of weakness in the destination business? - Management indicated that the weakness is primarily related to the Orleans property, while core and retail customer segments continue to perform well [25][26] Question: Can you provide insights on the M&A pipeline? - Management stated they are monitoring opportunities but have not seen a significant increase in M&A activity recently [28] Question: How did the Midwest and South properties perform? - The performance was broadly strong across the portfolio, with notable growth at Treasure Chest Casino [31][32] Question: What is the expected impact of the Orleans Hotel project? - Management anticipates limited disruption from the renovation project, with more clarity expected as the project scope is defined [45][49] Question: How is the promotional environment across markets? - The company has maintained a disciplined marketing approach despite increased competition, resulting in consistent margins [50] Question: What are the expectations for the tax bill benefits? - Management noted that while there are several elements to the tax bill, they have not quantified the overall benefit to revenue and EBITDA [57] Question: How is the balance sheet positioned regarding leverage? - The company is currently at a leverage ratio of 1.5 times, with plans to gradually increase it to around 2.5 times as capital projects progress [80][81]

Core Insights - Las Vegas is experiencing a significant decline in international tourism, particularly from Canada, which is its largest international market [1][4] - Mayor Shelley Berkley has made a public appeal to Canadian visitors, emphasizing the need for their return to support the local economy [2][14] - The downturn in tourism is attributed to various factors, including economic conditions, rising costs, and political concerns [7][9] Tourism Decline - The city saw a drop of 11% in total tourists in June 2025 compared to June 2024, with international visitors down by 13% [3] - Canadian tourist numbers fell sharply, with Air Canada and WestJet reporting declines of 33% and 31% respectively, and Flair Airlines experiencing a 62% drop [4] - Canadian tourists contributed approximately $3.6 billion to the Southern Nevada economy in 2024, supporting over 43,000 jobs [5] Economic Impact - The tourism industry in Southern Nevada generates a total economic impact of $85.2 billion [12] - The decline in visitors has led to a 27,000 room-night decrease in the second quarter, significantly affecting major gaming companies [10] - Las Vegas visitor volumes have consistently declined each month in 2025, with a 7.3% decrease in the first half compared to 2024 [12] Affordability Concerns - Mayor Berkley highlighted that Las Vegas has strayed from its historical value proposition, with rising costs alienating potential visitors [6][8] - Resort fees now range from $44 to $57 per night, and parking fees have increased significantly, impacting visitor spending behavior [8] - In response to criticism, some properties have begun offering value-focused promotions to attract visitors [11] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there is optimism for recovery, with upcoming events like the Formula 1 Grand Prix expected to drive tourism growth [13] - The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority has invested $3.25 million in marketing campaigns targeting international markets [13]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment reported a mixed performance in 2Q25, with net revenue growth but lower-than-expected EBITDA, leading to revised earnings forecasts and a lowered target price while maintaining a Buy rating [1][4]. Financial Performance - 2Q25 net revenue reached HK$12.0 billion, reflecting an 8% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 10% year-over-year increase [1]. - Normalized adjusted EBITDA was HK$3.2 billion, showing a 7% increase QoQ but a 1% decrease YoY, attributed to a lower mass market hold rate [1]. - Total gross gaming revenue, mass market revenue, slot machine revenue, and VIP rolling chip volume recovered to 82%, 130%, 138%, and 31% of 2Q19 levels, respectively [2]. - EBITDA recovery was at 79% of the 2019 level [2]. Dividend and Cash Position - As of June 30, 2025, the company's net cash stood at HK$30.3 billion [4]. - The interim dividend is set at HK$0.70 per share, with a payout ratio increased to 58% from 50% in 2024 [4]. New Developments - The Capella Hotel, a 95-all-suite project, has been in trial operation since May, with full opening expected soon [3]. - Construction of Phase 4 of Galaxy Macau is progressing, with completion scheduled for 2027, featuring high-end hotel brands, a theater with approximately 5,000 seats, green gardens, a water resort deck, and a casino [3]. Investment Outlook - The target price has been revised down from HK$55 to HK$50, indicating a 24% upside potential, while the Buy rating is maintained due to the resilience of the gaming business and long-term growth potential [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - Golden Entertainment reported quarterly earnings of $0.09 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.10 per share, but showing improvement from a loss of $0.37 per share a year ago [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $160.84 million for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.91% and down from $174.05 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once [2] Stock Performance - Golden Entertainment shares have declined approximately 18.2% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of 4.3% for the S&P 500 [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.21 on revenues of $170.28 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.58 on revenues of $666.38 million [7] - The trend for estimate revisions ahead of the earnings release has been unfavorable [6] Industry Context - The Gaming industry, to which Golden Entertainment belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 41% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8] - Another company in the same industry, Snail, Inc. (SNAL), is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.11 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of -120% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Golden Entertainment despite lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results will compare to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Golden Entertainment is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.10 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +127%, while revenues are projected to be $162.32 million, down 6.7% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.54% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates a negative Earnings ESP of -41.85% for Golden Entertainment, suggesting analysts have become bearish on the company's earnings outlook [11][10]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Golden Entertainment was expected to post earnings of $0.22 per share but only achieved $0.10, resulting in a surprise of -54.55%. Over the last four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [12][13]. Investment Considerations - Despite the negative indicators, the potential for stock movement is influenced by various factors beyond earnings results, including unforeseen catalysts and overall market conditions [14][16].