Big-box retailer Target (TGT 0.86%) has been one of the S&P 500's worst-performing stocks this year. Poor growth numbers and concerns about the overall economy have been weighing on its valuation of late. The stock is trading at levels it hasn't been at in multiple years.While Target's stock does look cheap, investors may be worried that it's not necessarily a bargain but instead a value trap and that the stock may be destined to fall even lower. Is that the case with Target, or could the market be overreac ...

Casey's General Stores (CASY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call June 10, 2025 08:30 AM ET Speaker0 Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 Fiscal Year twenty twenty five Casey's General Stores Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is ...

The dollar stores, such as Dollar General NYSE: DG and Dollar Tree NASDAQ: DLTR, have stock prices trading at discount levels in 2025. The discounts were deserved, driven by sluggish retail business and much-needed rationalizations that are now underway. The takeaway for investors in June is that both turnaround stories are gaining traction, but only one is a buy today. The difference is in the guidance issued for the year. Both will struggle with headwinds, including tariffs and a consumer pullback, but Do ...

Core Insights - Analysts expect Casey's General Stores (CASY) to report quarterly earnings of $1.93 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 17.5% [1] - Revenue is projected to be $3.97 billion, indicating a 10.3% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation of initial estimates by analysts [1] - Analysts forecast 'Net Sales- Fuel' to reach $2.40 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.3% [3] - The estimate for 'Net Sales- Other' stands at $134.72 million, suggesting a significant year-over-year increase of 104% [4] Sales and Store Metrics - 'Net Sales- Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage' is estimated at $400.18 million, indicating a 12.1% increase from the prior year [4] - 'Net Sales- Grocery & General Merchandise' is projected to be $1.02 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of 13.1% [4] - 'Same-store sales - Grocery & General Merchandise' are expected to reach a year-over-year change of 2.0%, down from 4.3% [5] - The 'Number of Stores (EOP)' is predicted to be 2,918, up from 2,658 year-over-year [5] Profit Estimates - 'Gross Profit- Grocery & General Merchandise' is expected to reach $348.35 million, compared to $310.17 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Gross Profit- Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage' is projected at $228.54 million, up from $207.44 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Gross Profit- Other' is estimated to be $37.11 million, compared to $26.85 million from the previous year [8] Market Performance - Shares of Casey's have decreased by 6.1% in the past month, contrasting with a 5.2% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the near future [8]

Core Insights - Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) is expected to report a revenue increase of 10.3% year over year for Q4 fiscal 2025, with projected revenues of $3,969 million [1][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are anticipated to decline by 17.5% year over year, with a consensus estimate of $1.93 per share [2][9] Revenue Drivers - The company's strong performance is attributed to its resilient business model, enhanced omnichannel capabilities, and exclusive private-label offerings [3] - Significant growth is expected in the prepared food and dispensed beverage segments, with a projected revenue increase of 13.2% [4] - Grocery and general merchandise categories are also expected to see a 12.7% increase in sales, driven by trending items like energy drinks [5] - Inside sales are projected to rise by 12.8%, with same-store sales growing by 2.6%, reflecting strong foodservice innovation and effective promotions [6] Challenges - The anticipated decline in earnings is primarily due to the dilutive impact of the Fikes acquisition, which has led to higher interest expenses and additional integration costs [7][9] - Other factors affecting profitability include the absence of the leap day benefit from the previous year and adverse weather conditions impacting February sales [7][9] - Operating expenses are expected to increase by 14.9% for the quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - Dollar General's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a 45% drop in 2023 and a further 44% decline in 2024, but has shown a recovery with a 31% increase year-to-date in 2025, making it one of the best performers in the S&P 500 [1] Financial Performance - Dollar General's earnings per share (EPS) have seen a sharp decline, with a 53% drop year-over-year in Q4 and a 32% decline for the full fiscal year [4][5] - The company reported diluted EPS of $5.11 for fiscal 2024, down from $10.68 in fiscal 2022, but management expects EPS to stabilize in fiscal 2025 with a forecast of $5.10 to $5.80, indicating potential growth of nearly 14% in a best-case scenario [13] Inventory Issues - A significant factor in the decline of profits has been the excessive inventory levels, which led to increased theft, damage to merchandise, and the need for discounts to clear stock [7][9] - Management has been addressing inventory issues, with theft decreasing and inventory levels approaching expected trends [10] Store Closures and One-Time Expenses - The sharp decline in Q4 profits was partly due to one-time expenses associated with closing underperforming stores, which would have otherwise resulted in relatively stable profits year-over-year [11] Economic Context - Despite high sales figures, the shift towards lower-margin food products due to economic pressures may limit profit potential [14] - Operational improvements are expected to enhance profits in the coming years, with additional growth anticipated once the economy improves [15] Valuation and Investment Potential - Dollar General's stock is currently trading at its lowest price-to-sales (P/S) valuation ever, suggesting it is undervalued relative to its profit potential [15] - If management can maintain control over past issues, the stock presents a buying opportunity as it is positioned for steady improvements [17]

Group 1 - Walmart continues to dominate the US grocery market, capturing 21.2% of grocery spending solely through its Walmart US banner, and 25% when including Sam's Club [1][6] - Walmart's grocery market share is more than double that of its closest competitor, Kroger, and it would require the combined efforts of the four largest grocery chains (Kroger, Albertsons, Publix, and Ahold Delhaize) to surpass Walmart [2] - Costco has been increasing its grocery market share from 7.6% in 2023 to 8.5% now, indicating a growing presence in the grocery sector despite its focus on bulk products [3] Group 2 - The growth in market share for Walmart and Costco is attributed to US shoppers seeking value amid economic uncertainty, leading to increased transactions and sales for these retailers [4] - Both Walmart and Costco also benefit from strong sales in general merchandise, which often yield higher profits than grocery sales, helping to balance lower margins on essential food items [5] - Collectively, Walmart, Sam's Club, and Costco now account for 33.7% of US grocery spending, up from 30.1% five years ago, reflecting a significant shift in consumer behavior towards these value-oriented retailers [6]

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call March 12, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Brian Johnson - SVP of IR and Business Development Darren Rebelez - Chairman, President and CEO Steve Bramlage - CFO Conference Call Participants Jacob Aiken-Phillips - Melius Research Anthony Bonadio - Wells Fargo Bonnie Herzog - Goldman Sachs Mike Montani - Evercore ISI Bobby Griffin - Raymond James Krisztina Katai - Deutsche Bank Kelly Bania - BMO Capital Markets Chuck Cerankosky - N ...

BJ’s Wholesales (BJ) Q4 2025 Earnings Call March 06, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company Participants Catherine Park - VP - Investor RelationsBob Eddy - Chairman & CEOPeter Benedict - Managing Director - Equity ResearchLaura Felice - Executive VP & CFOEdward Kelly - Managing Director - Equity ResearchBill Werner - EVP - Strategy & DevelopmentOliver Chen - Managing Director - Retail, Luxury, New Platforms Sector HeadChuck Grom - Managing DirectorSimeon Gutman - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Robert Ohme ...