Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Generac Holdings (GNRC) despite an increase in revenues when it reports its results for the quarter ended June 2025 [1] Earnings Expectations - Generac Holdings is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.33 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -1.5% [3] - Revenues are projected to be $1.02 billion, which is an increase of 2.6% from the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.94% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Generac Holdings is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.19% [12] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with significant predictive power for positive readings only [9][10] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have historically produced a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [10] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Generac Holdings had an earnings surprise of +27.27%, reporting earnings of $1.26 per share against an expectation of $0.99 [13] - The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all of the last four quarters [14] Conclusion - Generac Holdings does not appear to be a compelling earnings-beat candidate based on current estimates and rankings, suggesting caution for investors ahead of the earnings release [17]

Financial Performance - Generac's 2020 net sales reached $2.5 billion[12], representing a 12.7% increase compared to 2019[107] - The company's adjusted EBITDA for 2020 was $584 million[12], with a margin of 23.5%[12], a 28.6% increase from 2019[107] - Free cash flow for 2020 amounted to $427 million[12], a 70.3% increase compared to 2019[107] - Consolidated gross debt at the end of 2020 was $885.2 million[60, 107], with a leverage ratio of 1.5x[60, 107] Business Outlook - Generac anticipates a consolidated net sales increase of 25% to 30% in 2021[72] - The company projects adjusted EBITDA margins between 24% and 25% for 2021[67] - Free cash flow conversion of adjusted net income is expected to be approximately 90% in 2021[69] Strategic Direction - Generac is evolving into an "Energy Technology Solutions" company[19, 29], expanding beyond traditional generators to include energy storage, monitoring, and grid services[23, 32] - The company is focused on expanding market penetration for standby and clean energy solutions in North America and globally[48] - Generac aims to capitalize on the growth of natural gas as an energy source and expand applications beyond standby power[49]

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