波动中布局成长确定性，出口链叙事逻辑渐明 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 | 轻工制造 | [Table_StockAndRank] | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 波动中布局成长确定性，出口链叙事逻辑渐 明 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 本期内容提要: [造纸：木片收购价上移，浆纸全线企稳；仙鹤发力竹浆，成长逻辑延续。 Table_Summary] 根据 Fastmarkets，南美漂阔浆评估价格依旧维持在 500-510 美元/吨，尽 管部分买家持续压价，但浆厂挺市态度强硬；部分浆纸企业阔叶木片收购 价自 6 月中下旬已涨 90 元/绝干吨，制浆成本持续提升。我们认为当前海 外浆价已逼近国内浆厂成本线，Q3 价格有望触底回暖。纸价方面，本周各 个纸种价格全线启稳，其中包装纸规模 ...

Core Insights - The Jeep brand is entering the VIP protection and law enforcement market with the launch of the 2025 Jeep Wagoneer Command Operations Vehicle (COV) [3][5] - The vehicle has already garnered significant interest from government agencies since its introduction in January 2025 [5][6] - The Jeep Wagoneer COV features advanced safety and technology attributes, earning a Top Safety PICK rating from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) [5][6] Vehicle Features - The Jeep Wagoneer COV includes a 420-horsepower Twin-turbo Hurricane engine, capable of accelerating from 0-60 mph in 6.3 seconds [7] - It offers best-in-class towing capacity of 10,000 lbs and more than 130 standard safety and security features [7][8] - The vehicle is equipped with a comprehensive digital connectivity package, including three years of app-based Jeep Connect services and over-the-air updates for software evolution [8] Market Engagement - The Jeep Wagoneer COV was showcased at a Stellantis event attended by over 200 fleet customers, highlighting its potential in secure VIP transportation [4][6] - The vehicle is available for order through Stellantis U.S. dealerships, with details for the Canadian market to be announced for the 2026 model year [3][4]

Core Insights - authID announced a new integration with Ping Identity to enhance identity proofing and biometric authentication, aiming to eliminate passwords and reduce account takeover fraud [1][2][3] Company Overview - authID provides a patented biometric identity platform that ensures enterprises "Know Who's Behind the Device™" for every login and transaction, with biometric identity proofing in 700 milliseconds and authentication in 25 milliseconds [5] - The company’s PrivacyKey™ solution boasts a false match rate of 1-to-1 billion while storing no biometric data, effectively preventing fraud during onboarding and blocking deepfakes [5] Integration Details - The integration of authID's Verified platform and PrivacyKey™ with PingOne DaVinci allows organizations to seamlessly incorporate biometrics into their onboarding and authentication workflows for both workforce and consumer applications [2][3] - This collaboration aims to improve user experience by eliminating the vulnerabilities associated with passwords and enhancing identity assurance [2][3] Strategic Goals - The CEO of authID emphasized the mission to eradicate identity fraud through secure, frictionless biometric authentication at scale, with the integration accelerating the transition to passwordless security for enterprise customers [3] - Ping Identity's commitment to expanding its technology partner ecosystem is highlighted, aiming to deliver better customer experiences through seamless orchestration [4]

编 译 / 周 洲 设 计 / 赵昊然 来 源 / A u t o m o t i v e N e w s ，b y Vi n c e B o n d Jr.、L u c a C i f e r r i 、 P e t e r S i g a l 继日产汽车之后，Stellantis新CEO艰难上岗。 CEO职位空缺6个月之后，全球第四大车企Stellantis任命美国高管安东尼奥·菲洛萨（Antonio Filosa）为首席执行官。 5月28日，Stellantis发布声明称，目前担任美洲首席运营官兼全球首席质量官的菲洛萨接替去年12 月辞职的唐唯实（Carlos Tavares），将于6月23日履新。 52岁的意大利人菲洛萨是菲亚特克莱斯勒资深高管，1999年进入菲亚特集团，有26年的行业工作经 验。 Stellantis董事长约翰·埃尔坎（John Elkann）在过渡期一直承担CEO的职责。 埃尔坎称，菲洛萨在面临前所未有的挑战之际，在北美和南美展现出强大而高效的领导力"证明了 他胜任这一职位的卓越能力"。 菲洛萨在履新当日亦将宣布新的高管团队，同时推动集团重组。 在晋升过程中，菲洛萨参与过采购、物流 ...

5月8日，一款弹幕射击游戏《无声冲突》悄悄上线了，它是由谷得游戏研发的，全球游戏发行公司TBG Limited负责发行。 其实在那之后，这家公司曾趁热打铁推出过系列续作《世界2》《世界3》，也曾尝试俯视角射击、格斗、RTS、二次元、沙盒等其他品类，后来也开始做 休闲游戏。这些游戏有少数声量不小，不过更多的没有形成太大影响力。到现在，反而是线下VR游戏门店业务做得有模有样。 谷得游戏似乎一直在坚持一种「小而美」的发展策略，无论在公司经营还是游戏研发上都是如此。只是时至今日，有些理解还很保守，似乎不太适合现在 的市场。 国内首个月流水千万的游戏 谷得游戏成立于2011年3月。那一年，智能手机正迅速扩大市场，搭载塞班系统的诺基亚正处于没落前最后的巅峰，三星、HTC等厂商带着安卓平台迅速 崛起，iPhone 4则成为席卷全球的潮流高端机。刚刚成立的谷得游戏，看中了安卓机在国内的巨大发展潜力。 谷得游戏，这个名字我们好像已经有很多年没听到了。早在2012年，这家公司研发的《世界OL》是国内第一款月流水过千万的游戏。而据公司CEO许远 说，在《世界OL》上线之前，市场上的最高月流水纪录还只有300多万。 《世界OL》 毫 ...

Core Insights - Paycom Software (PAYC) shares have increased by 26.3% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 22.6% and the S&P 500 index's rise of 15.3% [1] - The recent rally is attributed to broader market optimism, particularly due to progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations and better-than-expected first-quarter 2025 results, with revenues and non-GAAP EPS increasing by 6.1% and 8% respectively [2][3] Performance Drivers - PAYC's strong first-quarter performance is driven by automation, effective sales execution, and operational efficiency, leading to wider margins and sustained growth [3] - The Beti platform has significantly reduced payroll labor requirements by 90% and error correction time by 85%, enhancing client retention and satisfaction [4] - The GONE automation solution has shown up to 800% return on investment, improving onboarding efficiency and client productivity [6] Client Satisfaction and Retention - Paycom has seen a 16-point year-over-year increase in its Net Promoter Score, indicating enhanced customer satisfaction due to successful client-focused initiatives [7] - The return of former customers, such as a 500-employee healthcare firm, highlights the effectiveness of Beti's automation architecture and measurable ROI [5] Financial Outlook - Paycom has raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $2.023-$2.038 billion, suggesting an 8% year-over-year growth at the mid-point, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $2.03 billion [9] - The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is $8.91 per share, reflecting a 2.2% increase over the past 30 days and indicating year-over-year growth of 8.53% [10] Conclusion - Paycom's accelerating growth, product innovation, and expanding margins position the company for long-term potential, with strong client retention and ROI-driven adoption suggesting further growth opportunities [11]

Paycom Software (PAYC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company Participants James Samford - Head - IRChad Richison - Founder, President, CEO & Chairman of the Board of DirectorsBob Foster - CFORaimo Lenschow - Managing DirectorSamad Samana - Managing DirectorBhavin Shah - Director - Software Equity ResearchIan Black - Equity Research Associate Conference Call Participants Mark Marcon - Senior Research AnalystSteven Enders - Equity Research AnalystJason Celino - Managing Director & Equity Rese ...

Industry Overview - The film industry in Hollywood has experienced a significant decline, with production falling by 40% over the last decade, leading to a shift of productions to other states and countries [2][4]. - Popular filming locations have shifted to countries like Britain, Australia, and Canada, which are now preferred over California for movie production [2]. Economic Factors - The exodus of the film industry is primarily driven by economic factors, including lower labor costs and more attractive tax incentives offered by other countries [4]. - The impact of this shift has resulted in many studios in Los Angeles being frequently empty, leading to job losses for those working behind the scenes [4]. Government Response - President Trump has proposed a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films entering the USA as a potential solution to the industry's decline [5]. - There is uncertainty regarding the implementation of these tariffs, with questions about their applicability to different types of films, such as those shown in cinemas versus streaming [6][7]. Industry Concerns - Filmmakers express concerns about the lack of detail in the proposed tariffs and how they would affect the production of films that require specific locations [9][14]. - The prop supply industry in Los Angeles has been severely impacted by the COVID pandemic, strikes, and the globalization of the film industry, leading to a significant decline in business [10][12]. Future Considerations - Industry stakeholders emphasize the need for careful consideration of the proposed tariffs to avoid unintended negative consequences for independent films and the overall film ecosystem [12][14].

Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) is set to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 7, after market close.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pinned at $2.60 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 0.4%. The consensus estimate for the bottom line has been revised downward by 3 cents over the past 60 days.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Paycom’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $525.6 million, suggesting a rise of approximately 5.2% from the year-ago quarter’s sales of $499. ...

周二，美国总统特朗普在庆祝就职百日的活动中，为自己的经济政策和关税制度辩护，同时再次批评美 联储主席鲍威尔。 特朗普在密歇根州底特律郊外的一场集会上表示："通胀基本下降，利率也降了，尽管我手下的美联储 官员工作做得不怎么样。" 本月早些时候，在对美联储降息步伐抱怨数日后，特朗普曾表示不打算解雇美联储主席，但他仍提出了 批评。围绕鲍威尔去留的不确定性震动了市场，加剧了投资者对特朗普关税计划的担忧。 特朗普称："按常理来说，不应该批评美联储（主席），应该让他自行其是，但在利率问题上，我懂得 比他多得多。" 此外，特朗普还呼吁国会通过他的税收立法，这是对其2017年税改的延续，还包含对小费收入、社会保 障收入和加班费免税等新增条款。他警告潜在的共和党反对者称，如果他们不支持，就应该被投票赶下 台。 在集会上，特朗普大部分时间都在宣扬他的驱逐非法移民行动，并嘲讽他的民主党政治对手。他还将自 己标志性的关税政策吹捧为激发经济增长浪潮、吸引制造商回流美国的关键。特朗普称："他们都想回 到密歇根州，重新在这里生产汽车。知道为什么吗？因为我们的税收和关税政策。" 这场活动标志着总统任期早期成功的传奇性里程碑。台下的观众正是特 ...