Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology's stock has experienced a decline despite positive recommendations from analysts, indicating potential investor skepticism about the company's future performance [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Recommendations - TD Cowen set a price target of $600 for Micron, predicting a 55% profit and earnings of up to $60 per share due to favorable market conditions in DRAM [2]. - Deutsche Bank analyst Melissa Weathers also recommended Micron, citing "unprecedented" tight supplies of DRAM and high demand for DRAM and HBM, which could lead to higher prices and profits for the company [5]. - Weathers forecasts Micron to earn $46.50 this year and values the stock at $500, suggesting a valuation of 11 times earnings [6]. Group 2: Market Risks - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about potential supply increases from competitors, particularly Samsung, which could negatively impact memory pricing and Micron's profitability [7]. - The semiconductor industry remains cyclical, and even with a valuation of 12 times earnings, Micron's stock carries inherent risks [7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The Motley Fool Stock Advisor has identified 10 stocks as better investment opportunities than Micron, suggesting that investors should consider alternatives [8].

Core Insights - Micron Technology reported Q3 2025 earnings with $9.3 billion in revenue, a 39% gross margin (non-GAAP), and adjusted EPS of $1.91, all exceeding guidance [1] - The company forecasts Q4 revenue (non-GAAP) at $10.7 billion with a 42% gross margin midpoint, driven by ongoing AI-driven demand [1] Group 1: Revenue and Market Position - Data center revenue more than doubled year over year, with HBM revenue experiencing a nearly 50% sequential increase, running at over a $6 billion annualized rate [2] - Micron became the 2 global data center SSD brand by market share during calendar Q1 2025, indicating strong cross-platform execution [2] - HBM revenue is projected to grow from approximately $18 billion in 2024 to about $35 billion in 2025, with significant demand growth expected to exceed overall DRAM industry demand growth in 2026 [3] Group 2: Investment and Capacity Expansion - Micron announced a $200 billion multi-decade U.S. investment plan, including $150 billion for manufacturing and $50 billion for R&D over the next twenty-plus years [4][5] - The investment plan includes building a second leading-edge memory fab in Boise, Idaho, and expanding the existing fab in Manassas, Virginia, to support automotive, aerospace, defense, and industrial markets [5] - The first customer DRAM wafer output at Idaho's new ID1 fab is scheduled for H2 CY2027, enhancing scale and time-to-market [4] Group 3: Financial Performance and Inventory Management - Free cash flow surpassed $1.9 billion, the highest in six years, supported by lean inventories and operating income reaching $2.5 billion (26.8% margin) [6] - Ending inventory for fiscal Q3 was $8.7 billion or 139 days, down $280 million sequentially, indicating strong bit shipment growth in both DRAM and NAND [7] - Management guides Q4 revenue (non-GAAP) to a record $10.7 billion (+15% sequentially) and expects non-GAAP EPS for Q4 to be $2.50 (± $0.15) [7]