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研报 | 英伟达H20出口解禁助力需求释放,预估中国外购AI芯片比例将回升至49%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-16 09:05
Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA is expected to resume sales of H20 GPUs in the Chinese market, which will boost local AI and cloud service providers' demand, making H20 a key player in high-end AI chips and increasing HBM demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - TrendForce estimates that NVIDIA's potential push to meet its original shipment targets will increase the proportion of NVIDIA and AMD chips purchased in the Chinese AI market to 49%, up from a previous estimate of 42% due to export restrictions [2]. - The resumption of H20 supply is anticipated to effectively release deployment demand for AI applications in China, particularly among large cloud service providers (CSPs) who will prioritize building their own data center infrastructure [2]. - NVIDIA plans to launch a special version of the RTX PRO 6000 for the Chinese market to meet diverse application needs, including edge AI inference [2]. Group 2: HBM Insights - The H20 expected to ship in 2024 will primarily use HBM3 8hi, with a gradual upgrade to HBM3e 8hi by early 2025, increasing total capacity [2]. - Currently, many self-developed ASIC products in China utilize previously procured HBM2e, but H20 is expected to be favored, leading to an increase in its share of HBM consumption [2]. Group 3: Uncertainties and Opportunities - The development of the AI market in China is influenced by international circumstances, leading to a degree of uncertainty for NVIDIA [2]. - When the export ban on H20 is lifted, local CSPs and OEMs are expected to actively accumulate inventory, while domestic AI suppliers and ecosystems will rapidly develop under supportive policies [2].