Group 1: Company Overview - Xipuni (02583) has quickly become a market focus since its IPO on September 30, 2023, with a first-day surge of 258% and a total increase of nearly 480%, surpassing a market capitalization of HKD 10 billion [1] - The company primarily sells gold watches under its flagship brand "HIPINE," and is the largest gold watch brand in China with a market share of 27.08% as of 2024 [7] - Xipuni's revenue from 2022 to 2024 showed a gradual increase from HKD 324 million to HKD 457 million, but the growth rate has significantly slowed down in 2024 [7] Group 2: Market Performance and Trading Dynamics - The extreme concentration of shares, with over 90% locked in by cornerstone investors and large international placements, created a favorable environment for price manipulation, leading to a significant price increase despite low trading volume [2] - The trading volume dropped from 2.82 million shares on the first day to 620,000 shares by the third day, indicating a classic "volume-price divergence" [2] - The current turnover rate is around 0.1%, confirming that the initial price surge was not driven by market consensus but rather by a limited supply of shares [2] Group 3: Market Expectations and Stock Connect - The market is particularly focused on Xipuni's potential inclusion in the Stock Connect program, which could significantly increase trading volume and attract mainland capital [3] - As of December 15, 2023, Xipuni's average market capitalization was HKD 9.848 billion, just above the threshold for inclusion in the Stock Connect [3] - The trading structure indicates a "stabilization" operation, with smaller brokers executing short-term trades while larger investment banks maintain a more cautious approach [4] Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Xipuni faces significant competition in the gold watch market, with the top five brands holding a combined market share of 37.48%, and must compete with both international luxury brands and domestic smart watch giants [8] - The company has a high customer concentration, with over 87% of sales revenue coming from the top five clients, which increases operational volatility and dependency on a few key customers [8] - Despite a recovery in revenue growth in early 2025, the current market capitalization of over HKD 10 billion lacks solid financial backing, raising concerns about sustainability [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant revival in IPO sentiment, with total fundraising exceeding HKD 130 billion by the end of August 2025, marking a nearly sixfold year-on-year increase and positioning it as the global leader in IPO fundraising [1] Company Overview - Xipuni, a gold watch brand from Putian, is gaining substantial attention from investors, with its IPO scheduled for September 29, 2025, aiming to raise approximately HKD 314 million [1] - The company is recognized as the largest gold watch brand in China, holding a market share of 27.08% as of 2024 [5][6] Financial Performance - Xipuni's revenue has shown a recovery in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.6% in the first five months, reaching HKD 231 million [7] - The company's net profit has also rebounded, with a significant increase in the first five months of 2025, achieving HKD 42.8 million, which is 86.7% of the total net profit for 2024 [8] - The gross profit margin has improved from 19.8% in 2022 to 31.01% in the first five months of 2025, indicating better product structure and cost management [9] Revenue Structure - Xipuni's revenue is primarily driven by its own brand (OBM) business, which accounts for 80%-90% of total sales, while the ODM business contributes supplementary income [10] - The company has diversified its product offerings, reducing reliance on traditional gold watches and increasing the share of gold jewelry and smart watches, which has positively impacted overall profitability [11][12] Market Trends - The gold watch market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.19% from 2024 to 2029, reaching RMB 340.8 billion by 2029 [13] - The demand for gold watches is resilient to economic fluctuations, driven by their dual role as consumer goods and investment assets, particularly in uncertain economic conditions [14] Challenges - Xipuni faces challenges such as high inventory levels of HKD 656 million and a long turnover period of 708 days, which could expose the company to risks associated with declining gold prices [15] - The company has a high dependency on a few major clients, with over 87% of revenue coming from the top five clients, which poses risks related to customer concentration and market volatility [15] - Despite being a leader in its niche market, Xipuni's brand recognition among general consumers remains limited compared to larger competitors, presenting a long-term challenge for brand development [15]