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海澜之家(600398):2025Q2主品牌环比改善,电商盈利质量优化
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 06:53
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 14 times for 2025 [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 2% year-on-year for H1 2025, reaching 11.57 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3% to 1.58 billion yuan. The non-recurring net profit increased by 4% to 1.57 billion yuan [1]. - The gross margin improved by 1.1 percentage points to 46.4% in H1 2025, indicating enhanced profitability quality [1]. - The company is expected to see steady recovery in profitability quality in H2 2025, driven by new store openings and improved project profitability [5]. Revenue and Profitability - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.38 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 14% to 650 million yuan [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 increased by 2.6 percentage points to 46% [2]. - The main brand's revenue for H1 2025 decreased by 6% to 8.39 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved by 2.2 percentage points to 48.3% [3]. Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand's performance in Q2 2025 improved compared to Q1, with a significant focus on technology, fashion IP, and quality products [3]. - The group purchase and customization series saw a revenue increase of 24% to 1.34 billion yuan in H1 2025 [3]. - Direct sales channels outperformed franchise channels, with direct sales revenue increasing by 17% to 2.9 billion yuan in H1 2025 [4]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - The company's inventory at the end of H1 2025 increased by 7.3% to 10.26 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days rising by 49.7 days to 322.6 days [5]. - The net operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 2.72 billion yuan, approximately 1.7 times the net profit attributable to shareholders [5]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenue growth in the low single digits for 2025, with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.45 billion yuan, 2.84 billion yuan, and 3.23 billion yuan, respectively [6].
海澜之家(600398):分红卓越,主业稳健,期待京东奥莱引领增长
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 03:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a revenue decline of 3% year-on-year in 2024, with a significant drop in net profit by 27% [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 91%, making its dividend attractive with an estimated yield of 5.2% based on the closing price on April 29, 2025 [1] - The main brand's revenue is projected to decrease by 7% in 2024, while new business lines such as JD Outlet and Sporz are expected to drive growth [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be CNY 20.96 billion, down 3% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 2.16 billion, down 27% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 6.19 billion, flat year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 0.94 billion, up 5% [2] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to remain stable at 44.5%, while the net margin is projected to decline to 10.4% [1] Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue is expected to decline by 7% to CNY 15.27 billion in 2024, but it maintains a gross margin of 46.5% [3] - The group purchase and customization series is projected to see a revenue decline of 3% to CNY 2.22 billion [3] - Other brands are expected to grow by 32% to CNY 2.67 billion, driven by the integration of Sporz and JD Outlet [3] Channel Performance - Offline store revenue is expected to decline by 10% to CNY 15.74 billion in 2024, while online sales are projected to grow by 36% to CNY 4.42 billion [4] - Direct sales are expected to increase by 5% to CNY 4.78 billion, outperforming franchise sales, which are projected to decline by 6% [4] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - Inventory levels are expected to increase by 28.4% year-on-year to CNY 11.99 billion by the end of 2024, with inventory turnover days increasing [5] - Operating cash flow is projected to be CNY 2.32 billion in 2024, approximately 1.1 times the net profit for the same period [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential revenue growth in the low single digits for 2024, with net profit expected to grow rapidly due to a low base effect [5] - The report suggests that the company will continue to focus on high-quality store openings and improving profitability in new projects [5]