Group 1: Market Analysis and Strategy - The current market is characterized by "multi-variable tearing," necessitating a new approach to timing strategies as traditional methods lose effectiveness[5] - A three-dimensional analysis framework using HMM models quantifies the unobservable market environment into four perceivable hidden states: uptrend, upward fluctuation, downward fluctuation, and downtrend[5] - The optimized strategy (HMM Opt Kelly) achieved an annualized return of 20.9%, surpassing the Wind All A Index's 16.8%[6] Group 2: Risk Management and Performance Metrics - The annualized volatility of the optimized strategy is 16.2%, significantly lower than the index's 23.4%[6] - The Sharpe ratio of the optimized strategy is 1.29, and the Calmar ratio is 1.90, indicating superior risk-adjusted returns[6] - Maximum drawdown for all optimized strategies is strictly controlled at -11.0%, compared to -16.6% for the market benchmark[6] Group 3: Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism - The introduction of dynamic modulation matrices based on macroeconomic indicators (PMI and credit impulse) and market sentiment enhances the model's responsiveness to market changes[5][21] - The model's ability to adjust outputs based on external environmental changes significantly improves its reaction speed to market turning points[5] Group 4: Investor Decision Support - The report provides a quantitative "market state observation lens" for subjective investors, helping to clarify complex macro changes and market fluctuations[7] - The system's state recognition capability effectively compensates for human biases in market perception, improving decision-making accuracy[7]