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纸浆和纸张月度追踪报告— 2025年5月
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-11 02:50
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the pulp and paper industry [1]. Core Insights - Chinese pulp prices for May decreased by 13% month-over-month (m/m) for hardwood and 11% m/m for softwood, with hardwood resale prices declining by 5% and softwood resale prices decreasing by 2% m/m [5]. - In Europe, pulp prices remained stable, with hardwood prices flat m/m and softwood prices increasing by 1% m/m [5]. - China's paper prices showed mixed results, with most grades experiencing flat to low single-digit declines m/m, while containerboard prices slightly increased [5]. - Compared to their 5-year historical averages, paper margins are 38% below for ivoryboard and 15% below for tissue, while 5% above for uncoated woodfree (UWF) and 13% above for coated woodfree (CWF) [5]. - China’s pulp port inventories increased by 3% m/m to 2.2 million tons (Mt), exceeding the historical average of 1.8 Mt [5]. - European port inventories declined by 13% m/m in April, reaching 1.3 Mt, aligning with the historical average [5]. Summary by Region Global - The report includes a comprehensive overview of global pulp and paper prices, production, and consumption trends [6]. China - Pulp prices in China for hardwood are at $517 per ton, down 13% m/m, while softwood prices are at $712 per ton, down 11% m/m [7]. - Paper prices in China show a range of changes, with coated woodfree at 5,475 CNY per ton, down 4% m/m [7]. Europe - Hardwood pulp prices in Europe are stable at $1,194 per ton, while softwood prices increased to $1,597 per ton, up 1% m/m [7]. - Containerboard prices in Europe have risen by 1% to 3% m/m [5]. USA - In the US, coated woodfree prices are at $1,515 per ton, stable m/m, while uncoated woodfree prices are at $1,610 per ton, also stable m/m [7]. Latin America - The report highlights trends in containerboard shipments in Brazil, indicating a year-over-year growth [70].