12 Dec 2025 01:08:59 ET │ 12 pages Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) Top Buy in China Restaurant Industry; Open 30D Positive Catalyst Watch CITI'S TAKE In the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) concluded yesterday (Xinhua, Dec 11th), the government highlighted its plan to "eliminate unreasonable restrictions on consumption and boost service consumption" as one of the priorities in pro-consumption policy execution in 2026E. With this context, we reasonably expect government's easing of anti-e ...

Flash | 13 Nov 2025 08:45:59 ET │ 11 pages HDL saw LSD YoY growth of table-turn in Oct (vs largely flat in 3Q). Given seasonably cold weather in Nov-Dec (which is a peak season for hot pot) and a low comp base in 4Q, mgt sees "less pressure" on table-turn in 4Q25E. Considering a late CNY in 26E and therefore YoY longer CNY holiday period in 26E (which is positive for hot pot biz), mgt anticipates "positive momentum" of table-turn in 1Q26E. Per mgt, its GPM sequentially improved in 3Q25 vs 1H25 and its YoY O ...

Summary of Haidilao International Holding (6862.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International Holding - **Ticker**: 6862.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$82.9 billion / $10.6 billion - **Industry**: Restaurant and Food Service Key Financial Metrics - **1H25 Sales**: RMB 20.7 billion, a decline of 3.7% year-over-year (yoy) [1][4] - **Net Profit**: RMB 1.76 billion, a decline of 14% yoy, missing expectations by 8% [1][13] - **Recurring Net Income**: RMB 1.55 billion, a decline of 27% yoy [1][13] - **Interim Dividend**: HK$0.338 per share, with a payout ratio of 95% [1][14] - **Operating Income**: RMB 2.2 billion, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 10.6%, missing expectations of 11.8% [11][16] Sales and Revenue Insights - **System Sales**: Declined by 6.5% yoy in 1H25 [3] - **Revenue from Haidilao Restaurants**: Below expectations due to a reduction in store count and lower per store sales [4] - **Delivery Revenue**: Increased due to the rapid growth of single-serving fast food business [4] - **Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG)**: Overall group SSSG was -10% yoy, with variations across tiers [5] Operational Metrics - **Average Table Turn**: 3.8x in 1H25, down 10% from 4.2x in 1H24 [10] - **Store Count**: 1,322 stores, with 33 net closures in 1H25 [9] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: RMB 97.9 in 1H25, slightly up from previous periods [10] Cost and Margin Analysis - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Lower-than-expected due to increased labor and operational costs [1][11] - **Effective Tax Rate**: 33.2%, above expectations of 29% [13] - **Operating Expenses**: Increased in various categories, notably other expenses which rose by 23.4% yoy [16] Future Outlook and Strategic Focus - **Key Focus Areas for 2H25**: 1. Table turn trends and outlook 2. Pricing strategy and promotion trends 3. Margin outlook and potential for improvement 4. Store expansion plans, particularly for the Haidilao brand and new brands like Yanqing [2] 5. Progress on new brands and shareholder return plans [2] Investment Rating and Price Target - **Current Rating**: Neutral - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$15.30, with an upside of 2.8% from the current price of HK$14.88 [18][19] - **Key Risks**: Variability in table turn recovery, expansion speed, cost inflation, and food safety issues [18] Conclusion Haidilao International Holding has faced challenges in the first half of 2025, with declines in sales and net profit attributed to operational inefficiencies and increased costs. The company is focusing on strategic areas for improvement and expansion, while maintaining a stable dividend payout. The outlook remains cautious, with a neutral rating from analysts.