International stocks, emerging markets and gold will shine in the second half of the 2020s, as investors have made clear that it's time for anything but bonds, Band of America says. ...

Core Insights - The importance of asset allocation in investment portfolios is highlighted, emphasizing that market fluctuations can lead to unintended shifts in the asset mix [1] - Rebalancing is essential for maintaining the desired risk profile and involves selling appreciated assets to buy underperforming ones, although it may not always enhance returns [2] - The article discusses the need to assess the current asset allocation, particularly the balance between stocks and bonds, and the exposure to international versus U.S. stocks [3][4] Group 1: Rebalancing Strategy - Rebalancing helps maintain the intended asset allocation, which may shift significantly over time, such as a portfolio moving from 60% stocks and 40% bonds to over 80% stocks [3] - The article suggests that a reasonable strategy is to keep about one-third of equity exposure in international stocks to align with global market standards [4] - It notes that growth stocks have significantly outperformed value stocks recently, indicating potential imbalances in stock types within portfolios [4] Group 2: Tax Considerations - Adjustments to the portfolio should focus on the overall asset mix rather than individual accounts, with tax-deferred accounts being the most tax-efficient for rebalancing [5] - In taxable accounts, strategies such as offsetting realized capital gains by selling holdings with unrealized losses can be employed, although this may be challenging due to a strong market [6] - The article points out that certain categories, like India equity and real estate, have posted losses, which could present opportunities for tax-loss harvesting [6]

Core Insights - Long-term investing is accessible to anyone due to no-fee brokerages and fractional-share trading, but it requires time for investments to grow significantly [1] - Successful long-term investing is deliberate and planned, focusing on strategies that encompass key elements for success [2] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Diversification is essential for long-term investing, as it minimizes exposure to any single investment and reduces volatility [3] - The "buy and hold" strategy is recommended by renowned investors, emphasizing the importance of staying invested to benefit from compounding and capital appreciation [3] - Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy that helps investors manage contributions, maintain discipline, and ensure consistency over long investment horizons [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Market unpredictability is driven by numerous variables, making it difficult for even experienced investors to predict market movements consistently [6] - Missing key positive trading days can significantly impact returns; for instance, missing the 10 best days over the last 30 years would have halved returns, while missing the 30 best days would have reduced returns by 83% [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment sentiment with a Bull & Bear Indicator reading of 5.4, suggesting a balanced outlook for global equities [12][75]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has recovered to pre-Liberation Day levels as fears of trade wars and recessions diminish, with cash levels decreasing to 4.2% from 4.8% in April [1][17]. - Expectations for global growth have improved, with a significant reversal in recession odds, dropping from 42% likelihood in April to 36% in June [2][18]. - The best-performing asset expected over the next five years is international stocks, with 54% of investors favoring them, followed by US stocks at 23% [3][50]. Summary by Sections Macro & Micro - Global growth expectations remain weak, with a net of 46% of investors expecting a weaker economy, although this is an improvement from a record 82% in April [2][22]. - The sentiment for a "soft landing" has risen to 66%, the highest since October 2024, while "hard landing" expectations have decreased to 13% [23][24]. Returns, Risks, Crowds - The most crowded trades include long gold (41%) and long Magnificent 7 (23%), with trade war recession still seen as the primary tail risk at 47% [3][54]. - A net 21% of investors expect higher long-term bond yields, the highest since August 2022 [49]. Asset Allocation - There has been a rotation towards emerging markets, energy, banks, and industrials, while reducing exposure to staples, utilities, and healthcare [4][60]. - The average cash level among investors has decreased to 4.2%, indicating a shift towards equities [17][75]. Corporate Sentiment - Investors view corporate balance sheets as the healthiest since December 2015, with a net 3% stating companies are "underleveraged" [43]. - There is a strong desire for companies to return cash to shareholders, with 32% of investors advocating for this strategy, the highest since July 2013 [46]. Sector and Regional Allocation - FMS investors are net 36% underweight US equities, while being net 34% overweight Eurozone equities [139][140]. - The allocation to banks has increased significantly, with a net 25% overweight position, reflecting a positive sentiment towards the financial sector [156].