Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment towards gold and cryptocurrencies, while expressing caution towards equities and bonds, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and economic conditions [1][3][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in investor sentiment, with a notable increase in global equity allocation from a net 4% overweight to over 25% overweight, indicating a bullish outlook on stocks [14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of rates and earnings per share (EPS) as the primary drivers for risk assets, suggesting that other factors are secondary [13]. - The report notes that the US dollar is in a bear market, with expectations of a revaluation of gold reserves by central banks to alleviate domestic debt burdens, which could lead to a bullish outlook for gold in the coming decade [13][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Investor probability of an economic hard landing has fallen to 5% or below, suggesting a more optimistic economic outlook [14]. - The report indicates a consensus among clients that lower rates will lead to higher stock prices, with a 95% probability of a Fed rate cut in September [14]. Market Performance - The report details the performance of various asset classes year-to-date, with gold at 30.3%, bitcoin at 25.5%, and stocks at 12.6%, while cash and commodities lag significantly [1]. - The report notes that the Russian ruble has appreciated by 42%, making it the best-performing currency against the US dollar in 2025 [2][15]. Investment Flows - There has been a significant inflow of $106.7 billion into cash, marking the largest inflow since January 2025, alongside $28.5 billion into bonds, indicating a cautious approach among investors [11][40]. - The report highlights that private clients have been buying utilities and bank loans while selling technology and healthcare stocks, reflecting a shift in investment preferences [12][46]. Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the concentration of returns in US stocks, particularly in technology, is expected to continue until credit spreads widen, which may signal a shift in market dynamics [4][20]. - The report also notes that defense and tech stocks are seen as relative losers in the current geopolitical climate, particularly in the context of the Middle East [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the biggest economic risk to economies and markets remains via an oil shock, with oil prices expected to spike above USD 80 per barrel due to potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz [8][3]. Core Insights - The conflict in the Middle East, particularly the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, has intensified uncertainty in global economies and markets [2]. - Oil prices are projected to rise significantly, with a potential increase to above USD 80 per barrel, reflecting a higher probability of a Hormuz closure, which is critical as approximately 18% of the world's oil passes through this strait [3][8]. - The report outlines four key risk channels for global equity markets: oil prices, freight and trade, geopolitical risk premiums, and tourism [4][33]. Summary by Sections Oil Market - Following US strikes on Iran, oil prices are expected to rise due to increased risk premiums, with forecasts suggesting Brent prices could reach USD 67 per barrel in Q2/Q3 and USD 65 per barrel thereafter if supplies are not disrupted [14][8]. - If oil supplies are disrupted, there would be an upside risk to oil prices, although this may eventually be capped by ample OPEC+ spare capacity [14]. Economic and Market Impact - The direction of exchange rates will largely depend on oil prices and the speed of their increase, with potential strengthening of the USD as a safe-haven currency [25]. - The report suggests that while the conflict does not pose a meaningful threat to economic stability in the Gulf, increased uncertainty may negatively impact sentiment, particularly in travel, trade, and tourism sectors [4][26]. Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran poses downside risks to emerging market equities, with investors potentially rotating from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Latin America [33]. - The report emphasizes that the biggest risk to economies and markets remains through an oil shock, with trade costs and tourism impacts also being significant [14][32].