V i e w p o i n t | 14 Aug 2025 20:17:45 ET │ 26 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Stay long local EM and EM carry — We continue to stay long EM local, FX hedged, into the Sep FOMC. Growth may still come off in the RoW, when there is pay back for tariff front-running. Separately, we are long EM carry. Of our two warning signals, positioning is currently a headwind, although it only becomes a problem if volatility spikes, too. Unwinding our SNB payer — We took profits on one of our very few ...

V i e w p o i n t | 07 Aug 2025 04:08:25 ET │ 11 pages China Economics Resilient Exports and Narrowing Tariff Gap CITI'S TAKE China's trade activities beat expectations in July, with exports accelerating to 7.2% YoY and imports rising 4.1% YoY. The exports improvement was broad-based but especially pronounced outside the US, and the strength concentrated in ICs and autos. Looking ahead, with neighboring countries now facing noticeably higher tariffs, China-RoW tariff differential will narrow meaningfully if ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Exports and Trade Dynamics - **Key Focus**: The resilience of China's exports, particularly to the US, and the overall cargo throughput and container export volume trends Core Insights 1. **Export Growth Expectations**: Anticipation of approximately 8% year-on-year growth in Chinese exports for July, reflecting resilience noted in previous outlooks [1][3] 2. **US-China Trade Resilience**: Despite potential volatilities, China's containership shipments to the US showed a positive year-on-year change in mid-July, with a contraction in US bills for seaborne imports from China widening but remaining stable [2] 3. **Consumer Electronics Impact**: The trade of consumer electronics is expected to negatively affect bilateral trade in Q3, with significant year-on-year declines in exports of smartphones (-71.1%) and laptops (-40.6%) noted in June [2] 4. **Cargo Throughput Increase**: Overall cargo throughput in China increased by 8.0% year-on-year for the week ending July 20, indicating a positive trend in export activities [3][6] 5. **Container Export Volume Growth**: Container export volume recorded double-digit growth in the week ending July 18, supporting the expectation of continued export growth in July [3][10] Additional Important Details 1. **Tariff Talks and Trade Dynamics**: Upcoming US-China tariff talks could lead to a narrowing of tariff differentials, potentially allowing previously diverted exports to return to China [2] 2. **Recent Trends in Container Departures**: Container departures from China to the US showed a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in the 15 days ending July 22, compared to a previous decline of -11.3% [13] 3. **Seaborne Import Bills**: The year-on-year change in US seaborne bills for imports from China was reported at -31.0% for the week ending July 19, indicating a significant contraction [14] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of Chinese exports, particularly in relation to the US market, and highlights the potential impacts of trade dynamics and consumer electronics on future performance.