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Buy This 1 ‘VC-Style’ Stock Now for 74% Upside, According to Analysts
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-12 15:00
Core Viewpoint - Jumia Technologies AG is positioned as a leading e-commerce platform in Africa, with significant growth potential driven by a robust logistics network and increasing investor interest in the region's digital commerce landscape [3][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 2012, Jumia operates in nine African countries, focusing on making everyday goods and services more accessible through technology [2]. - The platform connects approximately 70,000 sellers with consumers, offering a diverse product selection [1]. Financial Performance - Jumia's Q4 2025 earnings report showed a 34% year-over-year revenue increase to $61.4 million, with active customers rising 26% to three million [7]. - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) reached $279.5 million, a 36% increase from the previous year, with notable growth in Nigeria [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $7.3 million from $13.3 million year-over-year, indicating improvements in profitability metrics [9]. Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with a bullish rating and a price target of $18, suggesting over 74% upside potential [3][12]. - Despite a 21.62% decline in stock value in 2026, Jumia's stock has surged nearly 153.63% over the past year, outperforming major competitors like Amazon [6]. - Analysts view Jumia as a high-risk, high-reward investment, with a consensus "Strong Buy" rating from four analysts [15]. Future Outlook - Jumia expects GMV growth of 27% to 32% year-over-year in 2026, although it anticipates an adjusted EBITDA loss of $25 million to $30 million for the year [11]. - The company aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA breakeven and positive cash flow by Q4 2026, with full-year profitability targeted for 2027 [11].
Jumia(JMIA) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-10 14:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $61.4 million, up 34% year-over-year, or up 24% on a constant currency basis [19] - Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $7.3 million from $13.3 million in the prior year quarter [8][24] - Loss before income tax was $9.7 million, a 45% decrease year-over-year [9][24] - Quarterly cash burn declined to $4.7 million in Q4 2025 compared to $15.8 million in Q3 2025 [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Physical goods GMV grew 38% year-over-year, adjusted for perimeter effects [5][7] - Adjusted for perimeter effects, physical goods orders grew 32% year-over-year [6] - First-party sales represented 49% of total revenue, supported by international partnerships [7] - Average order value for physical goods increased to $37 from $35 in Q4 2024 [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nigeria's physical goods GMV increased 50% year-over-year, while physical goods orders grew 33% [11] - Kenya's physical goods orders were up 50% year-over-year, with GMV increasing 48% [12] - Ghana delivered exceptional growth, with physical goods orders up 82% year-over-year and GMV increasing 124% [14] - Egypt's physical goods orders increased 23% year-over-year, while GMV grew 2% [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA break-even and positive cash flow in Q4 2026, with full-year profitability in 2027 [5][29] - Focus on expanding product assortment and improving availability and affordability to drive higher conversion rates [16][17] - Plans to enhance marketing efforts, particularly in under-penetrated online channels [17] - The company will exit Algeria to simplify operations and focus on markets with stronger growth potential [15][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding macroeconomic stability in Africa, with improving currency conditions [50] - The company anticipates continued growth in 2026, with GMV projected to grow between 27%-32% year-over-year [29] - Management highlighted the importance of operational efficiency and cost discipline to support sustainable growth [25] Other Important Information - The company opened a new office in Yiwu, China, to enhance sourcing capabilities and diversify product offerings [10] - Fulfillment cost per order improved to $1.97, a 12% year-over-year reduction [8] - The competitive environment remains rational, with less aggressive behavior from global entrants [15][77] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the main drivers for acceleration in 2026? - Management identified assortment improvement, market coverage expansion, and increased marketing investments as key drivers [32][33] Question: How should we think about capacity expansion? - Management believes current fulfillment capacity is sufficient until the end of 2026, with no major CapEx expected [34][36] Question: What is the outlook for advertising revenue? - Management expects advertising revenue to gradually improve, targeting closer to 2% of GMV in the medium term [70][72] Question: Are there other countries considered for exit? - Management stated no other exits are planned at this stage, focusing on optimizing the current market footprint [41][42] Question: Will the company need to raise capital? - Management expressed confidence in achieving profitability without raising additional capital, although more liquidity could enable further investments [43][44]
Jumia(JMIA) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Presentation
2026-02-10 13:30
Presentation IMPORTANT NOTICE This presentation includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts contained in this presentation, including statements regarding our future results of operations and financial position, industry dynamics, business strategy and plans and our objectives for future operations, are forward-looking statements. These statements represent our opinions, expectations, beliefs, intentions, estimates or strategies regarding the future, which m ...
Jumia(JMIA) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-07 13:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue rose by 25% year over year to $45.6 million, demonstrating resilience in the core business [6][26] - Loss before income tax narrowed to $16.3 million, a 28% decrease year over year [6][33] - Cash burn significantly reduced to $12.4 million, driven by higher revenue and disciplined execution [6][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Physical goods orders increased by 18% year over year, with GMV up 10% excluding exits from South Africa and Tunisia [5][6] - Excluding corporate sales, physical goods GMV grew by 24%, indicating strong underlying consumer demand [5][6] - Revenue from first-party sales surged by 47% year over year, driven by strong demand from key international brands [26][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nigeria saw physical goods orders rise by 25% year over year, with GMV up 36% [19] - Kenya experienced a 38% increase in physical goods orders, with GMV up 31% [19] - Egypt showed a decline in physical goods orders by 6% year over year, but GMV excluding corporate sales grew by 6% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on scaling physical goods e-commerce while reducing emphasis on JumiaPay app transactions [8] - Strategic initiatives include enhancing logistics reliability, expanding into underserved regions, and improving customer acquisition and retention [16][24] - The company aims to achieve profitability by 2027, with a focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction [6][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted stable macroeconomic conditions and improved customer value propositions as key drivers for growth [43][44] - The company is optimistic about accelerating GMV growth in the second half of the year, supported by improved marketing strategies [12][39] - Management expressed confidence in achieving revised financial guidance for 2025, driven by strong operational execution [37][39] Other Important Information - The company has reduced overall headcount by 5% since the beginning of the year, reinforcing cost management efforts [13] - Jumia's anniversary campaign contributed significantly to order growth, with over 38,500 sellers participating [16] - The logistics platform, Jumia Delivery, is now operational in multiple countries, targeting social commerce vendors and individuals [22][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the July acceleration in growth? - Management indicated that the acceleration is primarily driven by improvements in customer value propositions and a renewed focus on online marketing channels [42][43] Question: How is the company planning for inventory and cash use during the holiday season? - The company plans to build inventory starting in early October, with expectations of manageable working capital volatility [48] Question: What is the potential for growth in underserved areas? - Management believes there is significant untapped potential in secondary cities, with ongoing plans for expansion [50][52] Question: How is the company addressing supply from international suppliers? - The company anticipates increased attention from Chinese manufacturers due to tariff changes, which should enhance supply security [54][56] Question: What are the margins like for the Jumia Delivery service? - The delivery service is expected to be profitable from the outset, with competitive pricing strategies in place [61][67] Question: What is the outlook for Ivory Coast's growth? - Management noted that growth in Ivory Coast is slower due to market maturity and a deliberate focus on profitability over rapid growth [96][98]
Jumia(JMIA) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-08-07 12:30
Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue increased by 25% year-over-year to $45.6 million[9, 30] - Net loss before income tax improved by 28% year-over-year to $16.3 million in Q2 2025[7, 9] - Quarterly cash burn declined to $12.4 million in Q2 2025, compared to $23.2 million in Q1 2025[7] - Adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $13.6 million in Q2 2025, compared to $16.3 million in Q2 2024[9, 64] Usage Metrics - Physical goods Orders grew by 18% year-over-year[7, 19] - Physical goods Quarterly Active Customers grew by 13% year-over-year[7, 17] - Physical goods GMV grew 10% year-over-year[7] - GMV increased 9% year-over-year to $180.2 million[9, 22] Regional Performance - Nigeria momentum accelerated with physical goods Orders up 25% and Physical goods GMV up 39% year-over-year[7] Guidance - The company raised FY2025 guidance, anticipating physical goods Orders to grow between 25% and 30% year-over-year[56] - GMV is now projected to grow between 15% and 20% year-over-year[56]
Jumia(JMIA) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-05-08 11:39
Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 26% year-over-year to $36.3 million[10], or 18% on a constant currency basis[10] - GMV decreased by 11% year-over-year to $161.7 million[10], or 2% on a constant currency basis[10] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was $15.7 million[10], compared to a $4.3 million loss in Q1 2024[10] - Net loss before income tax improved from $39.6 million in Q1 2024 to $16.5 million in Q1 2025[9] Usage Metrics - Physical goods Orders grew by 21% year-over-year[9] - Quarterly Active Customers grew by 14% year-over-year[18] - Gross items sold by International sellers grew 61% year-over-year[9] Guidance - FY2025 loss before income tax is projected to be between negative $50 million and negative $55 million[9], with physical goods order growth of 20-25%[9] - GMV is projected to be between $795 million and $830 million, a year-over-year increase of 10% and 15%, respectively, excluding foreign exchange impacts[55] - FY2026 loss before income tax is projected to be between negative $25 million and negative $30 million[9]; breakeven loss before income tax is expected in Q4 2026[9] Other Key Points - Liquidity position was $110.7 million, comprised of $61.6 million in cash and cash equivalents and $49.1 million in term deposits[11] - Net cash flow used in operating activities was $21.2 million[10] - Share of PUS (Pick-up stations) in shipped packages decreased by 7 percentage points[13]