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方正证券:AI贡献业绩增量,Keep下半年有望重回增长态势
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-09-16 01:43
"下半年在AI+及服装品类增量加持下收入有望重新企稳回升,同时明年有望释放更大业绩弹性。"报告 预计,Keep公司 25-26 年经调整净利润为 0.7亿元、1.7亿元,维持推荐评级。 责任编辑:郭栩彤 当前,Keep AI 教练初见成效,根据上半年业绩报告,Keep AI 7月DAU已达15万+,AI引致收入 100w+。随着后续AI教练功能模块的逐步完善,预计年底 AI教练DAU有望突破100万。 方正证券在报告中认为,明年随着AI教练功能逐步完善,有望贡献业绩增量,管理层初步预计明年AI 教练有望贡献收入增量2.3亿元/100w AI用户月活。 日前,运动科技公司Keep(03650)发布25H1 业绩,经调利润扭亏为盈,AI教练进展顺利,此外发力 服装品类。方正证券发布跟踪报告称,Keep后续收入端有望止跌回暖,利润持续改善。"维持推荐评 级"。 报告指出,Keep下半年有望重回增长态势,后续 AI 释放增量下有望贡献弹性。鉴于公司上半年主动战 略收缩低效业务,但下半年随着 AI 功能及服装产品线逐步完善,公司将配合重新做合理的费用投放, 预计收入将重回增长态势,同时经调净利率有望继续改善至 5%以上 ...
民生证券:Keep有望实现订阅用户与ARPU的双重提升 AI 教练对应60-100 亿元潜在市值空间
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-09-02 03:48
Core Insights - Keep has achieved profitability for the first time in the first half of 2025, driven by a strategic shift to an AI-focused business model [1] - The company has successfully restructured its AI infrastructure and optimized its product offerings, leading to an adjusted net profit of RMB 0.10 billion and a gross margin increase of 6.2 percentage points to 52.2% [1] - The fitness industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with online and AI-driven solutions expected to unlock new commercial opportunities [1] Group 1 - Keep's "All in AI" strategy integrates hardware and software, creating a synergistic ecosystem that enhances user experience and drives sales [2] - The company aims to improve user satisfaction and average revenue per user (ARPU) through a diverse product matrix centered around AI coaching [2] - Keep's current market valuation is considered low compared to mainstream SaaS products, with significant upside potential as new AI coaching subscriptions are expected to generate over RMB 200 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2026 [2]
Keep上半年业绩扭亏为盈,调整后净利润1035万元
Xin Lang Ke Ji· 2025-08-25 11:25
Core Insights - Keep reported a revenue of 822 million RMB for the first half of 2025, with a non-IFRS adjusted net profit of 10.35 million RMB, and a gross profit of 429 million RMB, resulting in a gross margin increase from 46.0% to 52.2% compared to the same period last year [1][2] Financial Performance - The revenue of 822 million RMB represents a year-on-year contraction, primarily due to the company's strategic transformation focusing on AI and the optimization of product structure [2] - The self-owned brand sports products generated approximately 400 million RMB in revenue, while online membership and paid content revenue amounted to 337 million RMB, and advertising and other income was 88 million RMB [2] - The gross margin for the self-owned brand sports products improved by 3.3 percentage points to 34.8%, confirming the effectiveness of the category focus and channel efficiency strategies [2] - The adjusted net profit of 10.35 million RMB marks a turnaround from a net loss of 167 million RMB in the same period last year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.3% compared to a net loss margin of 15.5% last year [2] User Metrics - The average monthly active users and average monthly subscription members were 22.49 million and 2.8 million, respectively, maintaining stability [3] - Membership penetration rate increased to 12.4% from 11.1% in the same period last year [3] - The average revenue per active user per month rose to 6.1 RMB, a 4.5% increase from 5.8 RMB in the previous year [3] Strategic Initiatives - In the first half of 2025, Keep initiated a strategic transformation from a content-driven platform to an AI-enabled, data-driven fitness intelligence service [3] - Key progress included the successful deployment of an AI infrastructure reconstruction system, reorganizing core tools and functions into AI coaching services [3] - As of July 2025, the daily active users of Keep's AI core exceeded 150,000, indicating a successful implementation of the AI strategy [3] - The company aims to establish a clear growth path through the systematic enhancement of operational efficiency, driving sustainable and scalable development while improving competitive differentiation [3]