Summary of Shenzhen Dynanonic 2026 Business Outlook Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Dynanonic (300769.SZ) - **Date of Call**: January 8, 2026 - **Attendee**: Ms. He Yanyan, Board Secretary Key Takeaways Industry and Market Dynamics - **Processing Fee Increase**: The company has successfully negotiated an increase in processing fees for most clients starting January 2026, applicable to both normal and high-end products. Management expects this fee structure to be maintained at least through the first half of 2026 [2][3]. Product Insights - **High Compaction LFP Cathode**: - The high compaction density LFP cathode (4th generation) constituted 30-40% of total LFP cathode shipments in 2025, with expectations to rise to approximately 50% in 2026. - The majority of this shipment is for EV batteries, with large ESS battery cells also beginning to utilize this product. A supply shortage is anticipated due to limited producers capable of manufacturing this technology [3]. - **LFP Cathode Breakdown**: - In 2025, LFP cathodes for ESS batteries accounted for over 60% of total shipments. For 2026, management expects this to remain around 60% for ESS batteries and 40-50% for EV batteries [4]. - **Lithium Supplement Enhancer Product**: - This product targets high-end ESS batteries with long life cycles, fast-charging EV batteries, and semi-solid state batteries. Shipment is projected to reach thousands of tons in 2026, compared to hundreds of tons in 2025 [5]. Capacity and Production - **Current Capacity**: - Total completed LFP cathode capacity stands at 450ktpa, with an operating capacity of approximately 370ktpa as of year-end 2025. The company plans to commence operations of an additional 80ktpa capacity in Q1 2026. Construction of new capacity takes 12-15 months if land is not ready, and 9-12 months if it is [6]. Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately Rmb12,718 million (US$1,818 million) [8]. - **Current Share Price**: Rmb45.390 with a target price of Rmb43.100, indicating an expected total return of -5.0% [8]. Risk Assessment - **High Risk Rating**: The stock is assigned a high risk rating, although it is believed that the company is at the trough of the cycle, with expectations for improvement in the competitive landscape by 2025. - **Potential Upside Risks**: - Higher than expected LFP cathode shipments - Better than expected unit gross profit for LFP cathodes - Lower than expected expenses [12]. - **Potential Downside Risks**: - Lower than expected LFP cathode shipments - Worse than expected unit gross profit for LFP cathodes - Higher than expected expenses [13]. Additional Insights - **Lithium Inventory**: The company maintains a low and safe inventory level with a current exposure of 2-3 weeks [10]. - **Valuation Methodology**: The forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.7x for 2026E is used for valuation, based on global cathode material peers' average multiple [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the 2026 Business Outlook Call for Shenzhen Dynanonic, highlighting the company's strategic direction, product developments, market positioning, and financial outlook.

Summary of Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **China Battery Materials** industry, particularly the production pipeline of major battery manufacturers for January 2026. Key Points Production Pipeline Estimates - **ZE Consulting** estimates that the production pipeline of the top five battery makers may decline by **7% month-over-month (MoM)** in January 2026, with **CATL's production** expected to decrease by **10%** [1][2] - This decline is more significant than the market's expectation of a low single-digit decline for January, indicating a weaker production plan than anticipated [1] Factors Influencing Production Decline - The reduction in production is attributed to ongoing negotiations between battery manufacturers and upstream suppliers rather than a significant drop in actual demand [1] - Maintenance plans announced by cathode manufacturers are likely a response to rising lithium carbonate futures prices, as noted by **Tianqi Lithium**, which has adjusted its spot prices to align with futures [1] Cathode Production Insights - Major LFP cathode manufacturers, including **Hunan Yuneng**, **Shenzhen Dynanonic**, and **Jiangsu Lopal**, have announced offline maintenance plans for January 2026 due to surging raw material costs and low processing fees [2] - The cathode production pipeline is projected to decrease by **10% MoM**, with LFP cathodes expected to drop by **13% MoM** and NCM cathodes by **1% MoM** [2] Production Data for Top Battery Makers - A detailed forecast for the top five battery makers shows a **15% decline** in NCM production and a **5% decline** in LFP production from December 2025 to January 2026 [3] - Total production for the top five battery makers is expected to fall from **144.5 GWh** in December 2025 to **134.4 GWh** in January 2026, marking a **7% decline** [3] Investment Perspective Defensive Outlook - The overall outlook for the battery supply chain remains defensive due to uncertainties in the production pipeline, influenced by seasonal factors and subdued demand for electric vehicles (EVs) [1] - **CATL** is highlighted as a top pick within the industry, with a valuation target of **HK$621/share** based on a **17.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA** multiple, which is above its historical average [5] Risks to Investment - The investment in CATL carries high risks due to its short trading history, with potential downside risks including: 1. Lower-than-expected demand for EVs 2. Increased competition in the EV battery market, potentially reducing CATL's market share 3. Higher-than-expected raw material costs [6][7] Conclusion - The conference call highlights significant challenges facing the China Battery Materials industry, particularly in production capacity and cost pressures. The defensive stance on investments reflects the current uncertainties in the market, while CATL remains a focal point for potential investment opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Energy Storage** industry, focusing on developments in battery technology and electric vehicle (EV) markets across various regions including Europe, China, and North America [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments Europe - **UK EV Sales**: In November, the UK registered 39,965 new battery electric vehicles (BEVs), marking a growth of 3.6% and a market share of 26.4%, which is 1.5% higher than the previous year. However, this growth is the weakest in two years, with overall registrations falling by 1.6% to 151,154 units due to a 5.5% drop in private demand [2][2]. - **Electrified Vehicles**: Electrified vehicles (including PHEVs and HEVs) now account for 51.4% of registrations, indicating a shift away from petrol and diesel cars [2][2]. China - **Energy Storage Tenders**: In November, China completed tenders for 10GW/29.7GWh energy storage systems, with independent storage projects making up nearly 90%. Inner Mongolia led demand, accounting for nearly 30% of orders [3][3]. - **CATL Developments**: CATL has begun large-scale shipments of next-generation 587-Ah high-capacity battery cells, achieving 2 GWh in shipments and expected to reach 3 GWh this year. The production line reduces costs by 42% and has an energy density of 434 Wh/L, improving performance by 10% over previous models [3][3]. - **LFP Cathode Price Increases**: Chinese lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode producers are raising prices due to tightening supply, with processing fee hikes of RMB 3,000 ($420) per ton expected between November 2025 and January 2026 [3][3]. North America - **LG Energy Solution Expansion**: LG Energy Solution is increasing its North American energy storage system (ESS) battery production target to 50 GWh by 2026, up from 30 GWh, with 80% of production to be made and sold locally [5][5]. - **Canadian Solar Reshoring**: Canadian Solar plans to shift manufacturing to North America, acquiring 75.1% of three overseas factories to ensure compliance with U.S. tariffs and restrictions, aiming to secure U.S. market access [5][5]. Additional Important Information - **Environmental Initiatives**: CATL's new factory in Hungary aims to cut emissions by 43% and reduce water and energy use by one-third, with plans to switch to treated wastewater for operations [5][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The energy storage market is experiencing significant growth driven by demand for renewable energy and data centers, with projections indicating that ESS battery demand may surpass that of electric vehicles [10][10]. - **Price Performance of Key Commodities**: Lithium carbonate (LiCO) spot prices are at $12,940 per tonne, while lithium hydroxide (LiOH) spot prices are at $11,455 per tonne, reflecting the ongoing volatility in the market [6][6]. Conclusion The conference call highlights the evolving landscape of the energy storage and EV markets, with significant developments in technology, production capacity, and market dynamics across key regions. The insights provided indicate both opportunities and challenges for companies operating within this sector, particularly in relation to pricing pressures and regulatory environments.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Battery Supply Chain**, particularly in relation to **Electric Vehicles (EVs)** and **Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. EV Sales Outlook for 2026** - There are concerns regarding a potential decline in U.S. EV sales in 2026 due to the termination of the $7,500 EV tax credit and relaxed fuel efficiency penalties. - Projections indicate that EV sales will remain flat in 2026, with evidence of a pullback in U.S. Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) investments raising downside risks for sales [2][2][2]. 2. **Market Entry Strategies for U.S. BESS** - U.S. nickel EV battery overcapacity can be repurposed for iron (LFP) BESS batteries with minimal additional capital expenditure. - The policy environment presents an opportunity for onshore battery capacity to gain market share from Chinese imports, with investors seeking updates on LFP BESS capacity expansion and demand growth [3][3][3]. 3. **Feeding LFP BESS Capacity** - China holds a virtual monopoly on global LFP cathode production, and the eligibility for the $45 kWh battery production tax credit is contingent on the Material Assistance Cost Ratio (MACR), which may limit Chinese content. - Concerns exist that tariff-inclusive Chinese LFP cathode could exceed the 30% MACR threshold by 2028, potentially creating bottlenecks for U.S. LFP battery expansion [4][4][4]. 4. **Korean Cathode Makers and LFP Production** - Korean cathode manufacturers face high capital expenditure burdens to transition to LFP production, and their investment decisions are influenced by tariffs on Chinese imports and sourcing rules. - There is recognition of the LFP opportunity, but policy uncertainties are causing hesitation in committing new capital [5][5][5]. 5. **Decoupling from Chinese Battery Supply Chain** - The U.S. has imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite, leading to a cumulative tariff of 160%. - Early responses to high tariffs include contracts for natural graphite supply, indicating a shift towards supply chain decoupling. The upcoming APEC summit is anticipated to be pivotal, with potential tariff reductions being a concern for the mid-stream Korean battery value chain [6][6][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Safety Issues and Market Sensitivity** - The battery industry is sensitive to safety issues, which could negatively impact demand and profitability, particularly in recall scenarios. - Market share and profitability are also highly influenced by government policies, including tariffs and export controls [9][9][9]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the global battery supply chain, particularly in the context of U.S. EV sales and the competitive landscape involving Korean and Chinese manufacturers.

Summary of Key Takeaways from ZE Conference on Battery Value Chain Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Battery materials, specifically related to Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries - **Key Participants**: ZE Consulting, China Futures, and various industry contacts Core Insights - **ESS Demand Growth**: - Industry consensus indicates a rising demand for ESS batteries to compensate for slowing EV battery demand in 2026 - Demand growth forecasts for 2026 vary significantly among experts, ranging from **18% YoY** (China Futures) to **40% YoY** (ZE) [1][2] - ZE predicts global ESS production will reach **1000 GWh** in 2026, up from **600 GWh** in 2025, representing a **60%+ YoY growth** [1][2] - **Lithium Carbonate Demand**: - If ZE's forecast holds, it implies an incremental demand of **500 kt+** for lithium carbonate, potentially leading to a quicker turnaround in lithium supply-demand dynamics [2] - Experts see limited downside risk for lithium average selling prices (ASP), although policy uncertainties regarding mining licenses may introduce volatility [2] - **LFP Cathode Utilization**: - Expected increase in utilization rates for LFP cathodes by **8 percentage points YoY** in 2026, with a range of **70%-80%** [3] - Current loss-making status among LFP cathode manufacturers is deemed unsustainable, with potential for a deficit in 2027 if demand growth continues to outpace supply [5] Investment Implications - **Positive Outlook**: The overall positive sentiment from the ZE Conference aligns with a bullish outlook on the upcoming battery price up-cycle [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Continued support for companies such as **CATL**, **EVE**, **CALB**, and **Hunan Yuneng** is suggested based on strong demand forecasts and production pipelines [6] Risks to Consider - **Key Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected battery demand - Research and development challenges - Strong competition and operational execution issues - Customer concentration and litigation risks [8][10][14][16] Company Valuations - **CALB Group Co Ltd**: Target price set at **HK$33.40**, based on a **2026E P/E of 20.6x** [7] - **CATL**: Valued at **HK$621/share** based on a **17.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA** [9][11] - **Eve Energy**: Target price of **Rmb93.9/share**, using a sum-of-the-parts approach [12] - **Hunan Yuneng**: Valued at **Rmb57.9/share** based on a **14.4x 2026E EV/EBITDA** [15] Conclusion - The battery materials industry is poised for significant growth, particularly in the ESS segment, with varying demand forecasts indicating a robust market. However, potential risks and challenges remain that could impact the overall outlook and company valuations.

Summary of the Conference Call on Asia EV Battery & Materials Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Asia EV Battery & Materials** sector, particularly in relation to the **EU's Automotive Action Plan** released on March 5, 2025, which addresses emission requirements and competitiveness against rivals from China and the United States [4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **EU Emission Policy Changes**: - The European Commission's Action Plan allows car manufacturers to average their emission performance over a three-year period (2025-2027), alleviating immediate pressure to meet the 2025 targets [4][9]. - The long-term targets remain unchanged, including the ICE ban in 2035 and a ~50% reduction in emissions by 2030 [4][10]. 2. **Impact on EV Battery Demand**: - A previously projected **20% growth** in EV and PHEV sales in Europe for 2025 may face downside risks due to the new emission policy, which allows OEMs to miss the 2025 target as long as they compensate in subsequent years [4][10]. - A sensitivity analysis indicates that if EU NEV growth is halved, there could be a **2% cut** to global EV battery demand forecasts and a **1% cut** to global lithium-ion power battery demand [6][10]. 3. **Stock Recommendations**: - J.P. Morgan recommends **CATL** and **Hunan Yuneng** in China, while expressing caution regarding geopolitical risks affecting these stocks [4][5]. - For Korean battery cell makers, the focus is on US production and demand, with a modeled **10% EU growth** as the base case for **LGES** [5][10]. 4. **Local Content Requirements**: - The Action Plan includes measures to support EU battery production and establish local content requirements for battery components, which are expected to be detailed in upcoming legislation [15][16][17]. 5. **Incentives for EV Demand**: - The Commission is working on incentives to boost demand for zero-emission vehicles, including social leasing schemes for low-income groups and measures to encourage corporate fleet adoption [11][12][13][14]. 6. **Funding Sources**: - The European Commissioner highlighted available funding sources for decarbonization, including **€50 billion** under InvestEU for clean tech and mobility, and **€1.8 billion** from the Innovation Fund for battery manufacturing [20]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a competitive EU battery production base to ensure long-term industry resilience and job creation [18][19]. - The potential for new conditions on foreign investments in the EU automotive sector was discussed, focusing on enhancing competitiveness and technological edge [18][19]. - The report includes a detailed sensitivity analysis table showing the potential impact of demand changes on battery supply and sales forecasts for various companies [6][7]. Companies Discussed - **CATL** (300750.SZ) - **Hunan Yuneng** (301358.SZ) - **LG Energy Solution** (LGES) - **Samsung SDI** (SDI) - **POSCO Future M** (003670.KS) - **L&F** (066970.KQ) - **Ecopro BM** (247540.KQ) [22].