1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may reach new lows [4] - The core logic includes sufficient hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, weak demand support in Q2 and Q3, increasing hog slaughter weight indicating inventory accumulation, and high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term new low of spot prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On May 20, 2025, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 678 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about futures - cash convergence and delivery game, and the far - month contracts are weakly fluctuating due to the possible increase in future slaughter volume [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 663 lots today, with a position of about 78,700 lots, a maximum price of 13,730 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,665 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,690 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly but with a limited margin. From the perspective of piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard spread may fluctuate and adjust [3] - The short - side logic includes that the breeding side has not reduced the weight, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to increase, and the demand support for hog prices in Q2 and Q3 is limited. The long - side logic includes that the frozen product inventory still has room to increase, the spot price is firm, and the subsequent slaughter increase is limited with the approaching of the peak consumption season in Q3 and Q4 [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may reach new lows. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] - The core logic for the strategy is that the hog slaughter volume in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 is abundant, the demand support in Q2 and Q3 is weak, the increasing hog slaughter weight indicates inventory accumulation, and the uncertainty of the new low of spot prices is high with a weak short - term weight - reduction drive and a relatively reasonable futures price [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On May 20, 2025, the national hog slaughter price was 14.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% compared with May 19. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47%. In Sichuan, the 01 - contract price was 13,595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.04%, the 03 - contract price was 13,010 yuan/ton with no change, the 05 - contract price was 14,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton or 1.13%, the 07 - contract price was 13,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton or 0.41%, the 09 - contract price was 13,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.04%, and the 11 - contract price was 13,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% [6] - The main - contract basis in Henan was 1,030 yuan/ton on May 20, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 6.79% compared with May 19 [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the national hog slaughter price, sample - enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain - depot purchase average price, futures - contract closing price in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price difference between the 07 - 09 contracts, and the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][10][11][13]