生猪日报 | 2025-09-02 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、9月1日，生猪注册仓单430手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日增仓1828手，持仓约7.55万手，今日最高价 13710元/吨，最低价13545元/吨，收盘于13625元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①养殖端已有所降重利好后市；②现货价格韧性强，说明供需 不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进 入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 图表设置 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显 ...

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-06-10 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月9日，生猪注册仓单475手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓1258手，持仓约7.86万手，最高价13505元/ 吨，最低价13350元/吨，收盘于13475元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2）二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱，难以支持猪价有明显涨幅； 3）若6、7月出现集中大幅降重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且现下降重实则 利好09合约，故认为09合约价格暂处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 作者： 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑 ...

生猪日报 | 2025-05-27 另存为PDF 分享 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月26日，生猪注册仓单700手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓1898手，持仓约8万手，最高价13640元/吨， 最低价13550元/吨，收盘于13600元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may reach new lows [4] - The core logic includes sufficient hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, weak demand support in Q2 and Q3, increasing hog slaughter weight indicating inventory accumulation, and high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term new low of spot prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On May 20, 2025, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 678 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about futures - cash convergence and delivery game, and the far - month contracts are weakly fluctuating due to the possible increase in future slaughter volume [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 663 lots today, with a position of about 78,700 lots, a maximum price of 13,730 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,665 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,690 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly but with a limited margin. From the perspective of piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard spread may fluctuate and adjust [3] - The short - side logic includes that the breeding side has not reduced the weight, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to increase, and the demand support for hog prices in Q2 and Q3 is limited. The long - side logic includes that the frozen product inventory still has room to increase, the spot price is firm, and the subsequent slaughter increase is limited with the approaching of the peak consumption season in Q3 and Q4 [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may reach new lows. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] - The core logic for the strategy is that the hog slaughter volume in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 is abundant, the demand support in Q2 and Q3 is weak, the increasing hog slaughter weight indicates inventory accumulation, and the uncertainty of the new low of spot prices is high with a weak short - term weight - reduction drive and a relatively reasonable futures price [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On May 20, 2025, the national hog slaughter price was 14.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% compared with May 19. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47%. In Sichuan, the 01 - contract price was 13,595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.04%, the 03 - contract price was 13,010 yuan/ton with no change, the 05 - contract price was 14,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton or 1.13%, the 07 - contract price was 13,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton or 0.41%, the 09 - contract price was 13,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.04%, and the 11 - contract price was 13,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% [6] - The main - contract basis in Henan was 1,030 yuan/ton on May 20, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 6.79% compared with May 19 [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the national hog slaughter price, sample - enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain - depot purchase average price, futures - contract closing price in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price difference between the 07 - 09 contracts, and the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][10][11][13]