Key Takeaways ET units trade at an 8.96X EV/EBITDA, below the industry's 10.47X average.ET is expanding pipelines, export facilities and LNG via partnerships and investments.ET's revenues are nearly 90% fee-based, reducing commodity price risk and stabilizing earnings.Energy Transfer LP’s (ET) units are somewhat inexpensive relative to its Zacks Oil and Gas Production Pipeline – MLB industry. ET’s current trailing 12-month Enterprise Value/Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITD ...

st natural gas pipeline boom in nearly 20 years is unfolding in the US South as companies build systems to feed massive export terminals rising along the Gulf of Mexico. As many as 12 projects to install new pipelines or expand existing ones are on pace to be completed next year in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma, increasing the region’s capacity to ship gas by 13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from US Energy Information Administration estimates. It will mark the biggest one-year expansion for Gu ...

18 November 2025 | 1:11AM EST Commodities Research ENERGY TOMORROW Catching The Largest Ever LNG Supply Wave Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha.dart@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Frederik Witzemann +44(20)7051-4297 | frederik.witzemann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Laura Cyr +1(212)934-1001 | laura.x.cyr@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see th ...

ARLINGTON, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Venture Global filed with the U.S. FERC and DOE its application for the permitting and approval of the Plaquemines LNG brownfield expansion project. ...

16 November 2025 | 6:21PM EST Commodities Research ENERGY TOMORROW China Could Be a Sink For The Upcoming Global LNG Oversupply. Will It? Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha.dart@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Frederik Witzemann +44(20)7051-4297 | frederik.witzemann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Laura Cyr +1(212)934-1001 | laura.x.cyr@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Hongcen Wei +1(212)934-4691 | hongcen.wei@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor ...

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil is positioned for a potential breakout, with a target price of $125 per share, indicating a significant upward movement from its current levels [2][5]. Company Analysis - Exxon Mobil has been consolidating since 2022 and is now approaching the upper end of its trading range, which could trigger a breakout [2]. - The company is expected to improve its fundamentals by 2026, as indicated by management during their earnings report [4]. - Exxon Mobil has been efficient in managing costs, which positions it well for potential upside surprises if commodity prices improve [5]. Market Context - The energy sector is beginning to outperform, and investors may start to reconsider blue-chip names like Exxon Mobil due to low expectations [8]. - Refining margins are improving, and diesel margins have returned to 2024 highs, benefiting companies like Exxon Mobil and Marathon Petroleum [6]. Growth Catalysts - Exxon Mobil has a growth catalyst in its Golden Pass LNG business, a partnership with Qatar, which is expected to contribute positively to its growth [7]. - The energy sector is anticipated to remain relevant and profitable over the next decade, with a need for diverse energy sources including oil and gas [10]. Investment Strategy - The current portfolio strategy includes a 21% exposure to energy, focusing on companies that offer substantial dividends and strategic growth opportunities [9].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company produced 2,399,000 BOED in Q3 2025, exceeding production guidance [11] - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.61, with cash from operations (CFO) of $5.4 billion [11] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) were $2.9 billion, down from previous quarters [11] - The company returned over $2.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.3 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in dividends [11] - Full-year production guidance was raised to 2,375,000 BOED, an increase of 15,000 from prior guidance [12] - Operating cost guidance was reduced to $10.6 billion, down from $10.8 billion [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Willow Project's total capital estimate was increased to $8.5 billion-$9 billion due to inflation and cost escalation [7][13] - The company reduced total LNG project capital by $600 million, with significant progress on three equity projects [8][14] - The company expects to realize about $1 billion annually in free cash flow improvements from 2026 to 2028, with an additional $4 billion in 2029 once Willow comes online [10][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company maintains a strong position in the U.S. inventory market, with a focus on connecting low-cost North American natural gas to higher-value international markets [9][15] - The company has secured 4 MTPA from Port Arthur Phase II and 1 MTPA from Rio Grande LNG, bringing the total offtake portfolio to about 10 MTPA [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for top quartile dividend growth relative to the S&P 500, raising its base dividend by 8% [6][7] - The strategic focus includes advancing global LNG projects and maintaining a flexible portfolio to adapt to macroeconomic conditions [8][9] - The company is investing in its portfolio to drive efficiencies and improve returns on capital [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the execution of major projects and the ability to navigate inflationary pressures [31][32] - The company anticipates a significant reduction in capital spending for 2026, with expectations for flat to 2% production growth [16][17] - Management highlighted the importance of the Willow Project as a key driver of future free cash flow [10][31] Other Important Information - The company has returned about 45% of its CFO to shareholders year-to-date, consistent with long-term guidance [7][11] - The company is making progress on its asset sales program, with over $3 billion in asset sales targeted [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the Willow Project's cost increase - Management acknowledged the disappointment regarding the cost increase but emphasized strong execution and project milestones being met [22][31] Question: Impact of increased F&D on project returns - Management stated that despite the increase, the project remains competitive within the portfolio, with attractive margins due to Alaska's oil pricing [35][36] Question: Lower 48 CapEx trends and free cash flow - Management confirmed that CapEx is trending lower in the second half of 2025, with efficiency improvements expected to drive free cash flow growth [38][40] Question: Regulatory and permit changes in Alaska - Management is working with the administration to streamline permitting processes, which could enhance future opportunities [46][48] Question: OpEx improvements and future reductions - Management highlighted successful execution in capturing cost savings, with expectations for further reductions in 2026 [52][54] Question: Production guidance and oil mix - Management provided guidance for a 53% oil mix for the total company in 2026, reflecting the impact of Surmont and other assets [58][60] Question: Dividend break-even and cash flow cadence - Management indicated that the break-even is decreasing, with expectations for a low $30s break-even by the time Willow comes online [65][66][68]

Earnings Report - Chevron Corporation is set to release its third-quarter earnings results on October 31, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.71 per share, a decrease from $2.51 per share in the same period last year [1] - The consensus estimate for Chevron's quarterly revenue is $49.01 billion, down from $50.67 billion a year earlier [1] Corporate Developments - On October 14, Chevron requested involvement in Venture Global, Inc.'s proposal to delay the startup deadline for its Plaquemines LNG export terminal, leading to increased tensions with long-term customers [2] - Chevron's shares fell by 1% to close at $153.52 on Thursday [2] Analyst Ratings - Raymond James analyst Justin Jenkins maintained an Outperform rating but reduced the price target from $170 to $160 [5] - Wells Fargo analyst Sam Margolin initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a price target of $190 [5] - Melius Research analyst James West initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a price target of $155 [5] - Piper Sandler analyst Ryan Todd kept an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $164 to $168 [5] - HSBC analyst Kim Fustier downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold and lowered the price target from $176 to $158 [5]

Core Insights - NextDecade Corporation has made significant progress in its development and financing activities, particularly with the positive Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for Train 4 and Train 5 at the Rio Grande LNG Facility, which are expected to enhance the company's liquefaction capacity and cash flow generation [2][3][7]. Development and Construction - As of September 2025, the overall project completion for Trains 1 and 2 at the Rio Grande LNG Facility is 55.9%, with engineering at 95.0%, procurement at 88.8%, and construction at 29.8% [3]. - Train 3 is 33.4% complete, with engineering at 70.8%, procurement at 67.2%, and construction at 4.5% [3]. - Train 4 has an expected LNG production capacity of approximately 6 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and total project costs of about $6.7 billion, with substantial completion anticipated in the second half of 2030 [3]. - Train 5 also has an expected capacity of 6 MTPA, with similar project costs and a completion target in the first half of 2031 [3]. Strategic and Commercial Developments - In September 2025, NextDecade announced a 20-year LNG Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with EQT Corporation for 1.5 MTPA from Train 5 and another SPA with ConocoPhillips for 1.0 MTPA from the same train [7]. - The company is advancing the permitting process for additional liquefaction capacity with Trains 6 through 8, which are expected to add approximately 18 MTPA to the total capacity [13][14]. Financial Overview - NextDecade closed approximately $6.7 billion in project financing for Train 4, which includes commitments from various financial partners and a senior secured bank credit facility [7]. - For Train 5, a similar financing structure was established, with total project costs also around $6.7 billion [7]. - The company holds significant equity interests in the joint ventures for Trains 4 and 5, entitling it to a substantial share of cash distributions during operations [12]. Regulatory and Environmental - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a final supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for the first five liquefaction trains, reaffirming authorization for their construction and operation [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, distributable cash flow of approximately $1.6 billion, and net income of approximately $1 billion [7][30] - The full-year 2025 guidance for consolidated adjusted EBITDA remains at $6.6 to $7 billion, while the distributable cash flow guidance has been raised from $4.4 to $4.8 billion to $4.8 to $5.2 billion [7][39] - The increase in distributable cash flow guidance is primarily due to a discrete IRS rule change related to the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax [7][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company produced and exported 163 cargoes of LNG during the third quarter, achieving a milestone of the 3,000th LNG cargo produced at Sabine Pass [8] - The operational challenges faced were primarily due to variability in natural gas quality, which required real-time adjustments to liquefaction processes [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global LNG demand in Q3 2025 was supported by European imports, while Asian demand remained soft, leading to price differentials that incentivized U.S. cargoes to Europe [18][20] - European LNG imports increased year on year, while Russian piped gas volumes decreased by 43% year on year [21][24] - Asian LNG imports declined by 4% year on year in Q3 2025, with a notable decrease in demand from China and India [22][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Sabine Pass projects while maintaining operational excellence and a disciplined capital allocation program [4][5] - The company aims to achieve over 50 million tons of LNG production in 2026, supported by the startup of remaining trains at Corpus Christi Stage 3 [10][41] - The company emphasizes a disciplined approach to new liquefaction capacity under long-term contracts, ensuring high visibility into future cash flows [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in 2025, including geopolitical unrest and rising costs, but expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver predictable results [4][6] - The company expects a record year for LNG production in 2026, with planned maintenance designed to enhance long-term production reliability [10][41] - Management remains optimistic about the long-term demand for LNG, particularly in Asia, as new supply enters the market [26][28] Other Important Information - The company deployed approximately $1.8 billion under its capital allocation plan in Q3 2025, including $600 million in growth CapEx and $1 billion in share repurchases [10][32] - The company declared a dividend of $0.555 per common share, marking a 10% increase from the prior quarter [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on buybacks and future trajectory - Management indicated that the buyback program is expected to continue at a similar pace, with plans to seek an increase in the authorization next year [51] Question: LNG market demand and pricing - Management discussed the potential for lower prices to incentivize demand in Asia, highlighting the importance of power generation and industrial demand as key drivers [52][54] Question: Impact of EU's ban on Russian gas imports - Management expressed optimism about increased marketing opportunities in Europe, given the strong relationships with EU counterparties [63] Question: Incremental capacity expansion plans - Management confirmed a disciplined approach to future expansions, focusing on projects that meet robust financial hurdles and are fully contracted [65][67] Question: Variability in feed gas composition - Management explained ongoing efforts to address feed gas variability through process adjustments and small capital investments [71][73]