LU2601)
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大越期货燃料油早报-20251029
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for fuel oil prices is weak, lacking stimulating factors. With the halt in the upward trend of upstream crude oil, fuel oil prices have also declined. Future attention should be paid to the extent of sanctions on Russia and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. The FU2601 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2770 - 2810, and the LU2601 contract in the range of 3200 - 3250 [3]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has remained at recent levels. However, sufficient supply is expected to suppress the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals and limit significant upside in the coming weeks. The strengthening of high - sulfur fuel oil refining margins has curbed refinery raw material demand [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Hints - The FU2601 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2770 - 2810, and the LU2601 contract in the range of 3200 - 3250 [3]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has remained at recent levels, but supply may suppress fundamentals. High - sulfur fuel oil refining margins have curbed refinery demand [3]. - The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 386.01 dollars/ton with a basis of - 12 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 445.85 dollars/ton with a basis of - 2 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot is at par with the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 22 was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur main position holds short positions with a decrease in shorts, and the low - sulfur main position holds long positions with a decrease in longs [3]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors include the extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2839, the current value is 2830, a decrease of 9 with a decline rate of - 0.32%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3250, the current value is 3264, an increase of 14 with an increase rate of 0.43%. The previous value of the FU basis was - 12, the current value is - 20, a decrease of 7 with a decline rate of - 56.82%. The previous value of the LU basis was 24, the current value is - 55, a decrease of 79 with a decline rate of - 331.81% [5]. - The previous value of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 471.00, the current value is 466.00, a decrease of 5.00 with a decline rate of - 1.06%. The previous value of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 485.00, the current value is 480.00, a decrease of 5.00 with a decline rate of - 1.03%. The previous value of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 386.01, the current value is 382.37, a decrease of 3.64 with a decline rate of - 0.94%. The previous value of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 449.50, the current value is 441.46, a decrease of 8.04 with a decline rate of - 1.79%. The previous value of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil was 358.80, the current value is 354.63, a decrease of 4.17 with a decline rate of - 1.16%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 673.74, the current value is 677.44, an increase of 3.70 with an increase rate of 0.55% [6]. 4. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on October 22 was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels compared to the previous period. Historical data shows fluctuations in inventory from August 13 to October 22 [3][8].