Core Insights - This week, 53 high-risk borrower loans totaling over $80 billion were issued, with 40 loans aimed at reducing existing debt borrowing costs [1] - Many companies that refinanced existing debt at the end of last year or early this year were prohibited from repricing that debt for six months, which has now expired, allowing borrowers to re-enter the market [1] - Jane Lawrence, a portfolio manager at Sound Point Capital, noted that the expiration of the soft call option comes at a time of market supply scarcity [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The interplay of policy uncertainty and business cycle dynamics is crucial, with significant influences from US policy shifts in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory domains affecting market sentiment [9]. - The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the global macroeconomic landscape are expected to persist in the second half of 2025, with various potential scenarios outlined for market performance [12][15]. - A US recession is not the baseline scenario, but risks remain elevated, with a potential for 100 basis points of Fed cuts between December 2025 and spring 2026 [15][24]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The substantial shift in US trade policy has led to a forecasted downshift in global growth and a rotation in inflation pressures towards the US, with recession risks placed at 40% [17]. - The US GDP growth outlook has been revised down from 2.0% to 1.3% for the year, with core PCE inflation expected to reach 4.6% in Q3 and 3.4% by year-end [21]. Equities - The outlook for US equities suggests narrow market leadership and high concentration, with a potential for new highs absent major policy or geopolitical surprises [25][26]. - International equities are expected to trade favorably, with a rotation into international markets likely to continue, supported by USD weakness [26][27]. Rates - Long-end yields are expected to remain stable, with a forecast for 2-year and 10-year yields to end the year at 3.50% and 4.35%, respectively [30][31]. - The Treasury market's rapid growth has outstripped demand, leading to a potential increase in term premium over time [30]. Credit - High-grade credit remains supported by high yields and good corporate earnings, with spreads expected to remain tight [35][36]. - High-yield bond spreads are forecasted to widen by about 100 basis points to 450 basis points by year-end 2025, with a default rate expected to rise to 2.75% in 2026 [38][39]. Commodities - Oil prices are anticipated to trade in the low-to-mid $60 range for the remainder of 2025, with geopolitical tensions potentially causing short-term spikes [43][44]. - Gold prices are projected to reach an average of $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025, supported by strong demand amid economic uncertainties [45].

Summary of High Yield and Leveraged Loan Strategy Deck Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **High Yield and Leveraged Loan** market, analyzing current trends, recommendations, and performance metrics. Key Points and Arguments Market Positioning - The company has adopted a more cautious stance due to increased policy risk, tighter financial conditions, and limited Federal Reserve capacity to respond to inflation uncertainty. This led to a shift in recommendations for Regular Way BB and B ratings, with BB now overweight and B underweight as of April 2025 [3][41]. - The energy sector was downgraded from overweight to underweight on May 8, 2025, due to economic uncertainty and OPEC+ supply concerns [3][41]. High Yield Factors and Valuations - The allocation and performance of various high yield factors are detailed, with specific weights and yields to worst (YTW) provided: - **Regular Way BB**: Overweight at 27.1%, YTW 6.35% - **Regular Way B**: Underweight at 23.7%, YTW 7.80% - **Regular Way CCC**: Overweight at 6.0%, YTW 10.62% [4][26]. Loan Market Recommendations - The company remains conservatively positioned in the loan market, favoring BBB/BB premium loans while underweighting distress and discount B-/CCC loans [5][10]. - The allocation for loans includes: - **BBB/BB Premium**: Overweight at 13.3% - **B+/B Discount**: Overweight at 26.8% [6][10]. Asset Allocation Changes - The bond allocation was raised to 55% while the loan allocation was reduced to 45% in April 2025, reflecting a belief that bonds offer better upside/downside potential compared to loans [7][72]. Performance Metrics - The report includes a performance summary for high yield and loan allocations, showing relative performance changes over several months, with a notable rebound post-rebalance in April 2025 [8][11]. Energy Sector Analysis - The energy sector is highlighted as a source of lower expected returns and higher volatility, with a negative convexity relative to commodity prices. The report notes that every energy subsector has widened more than the index year-to-date, indicating a lack of support in the secondary market [19][23][41]. - The report emphasizes the challenges faced by the energy sector, including a shift from backwardation to contango in oil futures, which could lead to production cuts from the U.S. oil industry [23][25]. Default Rate and Issuance Forecasts - Current forecasts predict a high yield issuance of $370 billion and loan issuance of $530 billion by the end of 2025, with default rates expected to be 1.8% for high yield and 7.3% for loans [17][17]. Conclusion and Outlook - The report concludes with a cautious outlook on speculative grade products, indicating that the recent spread back up is viewed as a new trading range rather than a ceiling. The tightening financial conditions and rising recession risks are highlighted as significant concerns for the market [104][104]. Additional Important Content - The report discusses the implications of a potential buyer vacuum in the lower quality loan market due to CLO managers' sensitivity to credit quality, which could create opportunities for distressed funds [36][41]. - The analysis of market structure changes indicates an improvement in credit quality, with BB ratings gaining market share, but warns that the current environment could lead to wider spreads in a downturn [56][72]. This comprehensive summary captures the essential insights and recommendations from the High Yield and Leveraged Loan Strategy Deck, providing a clear overview of the current market dynamics and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - SCOR Investment Partners has transitioned its SCOR Senior Euro Loans fund to daily liquidity, enhancing flexibility for investors in leveraged loans [2][3][4]. Group 1: Fund Overview - SCOR Senior Euro Loans, launched in 2011 and previously known as SCOR Sustainable Euro Loans, currently manages EUR 806 million in assets as of March 31, 2025 [6]. - The fund targets institutional investors with the goal of generating high current yields while preserving capital over the recommended investment period [6]. - The fund is managed by a team of nine experts, including six credit analysts, under the leadership of Rémy Chupin [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The fund's shift to daily net asset value calculation allows for immediate market exposure and daily management of investment risk [3][4]. - Leveraged loans are presented as an alternative source of bond diversification, providing liquidity and price transparency [4]. - The fund's sustainability analysis is enhanced by minimum sector thresholds based on a proprietary methodology, classifying it as Article 8 under the European SFDR [5]. Group 3: Market Context - The European leveraged loan market has seen growth due to increasing demand from investors such as CLOs, enhancing its liquidity features [7]. - The changes to the fund's structure are aimed at meeting the evolving needs of institutional clients for liquid investment solutions [7].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 22, with mixed revenue growth anticipated across its divisions due to various market conditions and strategic efforts. Group 1: Revenue Estimates - The Corporate Finance line is projected to generate revenues of $532.3 million, indicating a marginal rise from the previous year's quarter [2] - The Financial Institutions business line is estimated to bring in $201.1 million, reflecting a 3.1% increase [3] - Public, Project, and Infrastructure Finance revenues are expected to be around $141.2 million, suggesting a slight increase [3] - Structured Finance revenues are anticipated to reach $116.8 million, indicating a 2.5% rise [4] - Overall revenues for the Moody's Investors Service division are estimated at $1.1 billion, implying a 7.3% year-over-year increase [5] Group 2: Moody's Analytics Division - Revenues from the Moody's Analytics division are expected to rise to $868.4 million, representing an 8.7% increase from the prior year [7] - The division's growth is supported by rising demand for analytics and strategic inorganic growth efforts [6] Group 3: Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for earnings is $3.57, reflecting a 5.9% increase from the year-ago figure [9] - Sales are projected to be $1.89 billion, suggesting a growth of 5.7% [9] - The likelihood of Moody's beating the earnings estimate is low, with an Earnings ESP of -0.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [8]