Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Sam Vardis live from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. It's time now for overlooked stock.Shares of Lemonade are on the rise after Morgan Stanley upgraded shares this morning. So I'm joined by George Sillis to get us across this one, senior markets correspondent. So what is exactly the analyst saying which is behind uh this note today as to why the shares are rallying up at 9% right now, George.>> Yeah, I mean you look at Lemonade. In fact, in the last year, the ...

Core Insights - Over 1 million car accidents involving deer occur annually, with significant financial implications and risks to wildlife and human safety [1][4] Group 1: Risks of Hitting a Deer - State Farm estimates over 1.7 million U.S. car insurance claims for animal collisions, primarily involving deer, from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025 [2] - The average U.S. driver has a 1 in 139 chance of hitting an animal, with the highest risks in West Virginia (1 in 40), Montana (1 in 53), and Wisconsin (1 in 58) [2] Group 2: Timing and Conditions - The likelihood of deer collisions peaks in November, October, and December, with the most dangerous times being from sunset to midnight and near dawn [3] Group 3: Costs of Collisions - From 2020 to 2023, 789 fatalities occurred due to vehicle-animal crashes, highlighting the human toll of these incidents [4] - The average cost of an animal-vehicle claim in the AAA East Central region was reported at $5,620 in 2024 [5] Group 4: Insurance Coverage - Comprehensive car insurance covers damage from animal collisions, while collision insurance applies to accidents involving other vehicles or objects [7][8] - Full coverage car insurance, which includes comprehensive and collision insurance, is essential for protection against deer collisions [18] Group 5: Preventive Measures - Drivers are advised to stay alert, especially during peak deer activity times, and to use high beams in low-traffic areas to enhance visibility [21]

Summary of PICC Group 3Q25 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: PICC Group (1339.HK) - **Industry**: Insurance Key Takeaways 1. Premium Growth and CoR Improvement - In 3Q25, PICC's premium growth was steady at +4% year-over-year, consistent with 1H25 growth [2] - Auto premium growth aligned with industry levels, while agricultural, commercial properties, and liability lines showed muted growth [2] - CoR (Cost of Risk) improved significantly year-over-year due to reduced NAT CAT losses, attributed to enhanced risk prevention measures by the government and PICC [2] 2. Future CoR Expectations - Management anticipates further CoR improvements driven by: - Continued regulatory strengthening in the auto insurance sector with stricter expense monitoring starting in 2025 [2] - Gradual relaxation of NEV pricing factors launched in mid-September 2025 [2] - Expense rationalization in non-auto businesses commencing November 1, 2025, starting with commercial property and employer liability lines [2] 3. Life Insurance Growth - Bancassurance remained the primary growth driver in 3Q25, with regular premium growth increasing from approximately 50% year-over-year in 1H25 [3] - Focus on long-term products with premium payment terms of 5 to 10 years, shifting towards par/universal products [3] - Improvement in NBV (New Business Value) margin year-over-year noted [3] 4. Health Insurance Opportunities - Management is exploring the establishment of medicine catalogs for various health insurance tiers, particularly targeting middle-end health insurance [4] - The introduction of innovative drugs in catalog B is expected to enhance market potential and allow for higher pricing [4] 5. Investment Performance - In 3Q25, management reported that net assets increased quarter-over-quarter, driven by improved equity returns, particularly from growth-style stocks [5] - The broad-based growth stock index rose by 24% in 3Q25 compared to 16% in 3Q24, benefiting PICC's investment strategy [7] 6. Valuation and Target Price - Target price set at HK$7.50, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, reflecting a 0.72x 2026E P/EV multiple [8] - Market capitalization reported at HK$299.839 billion (approximately US$38.528 billion) [5] 7. Risks - Key downside risks include: - Prolonged downturn in the P&C (Property and Casualty) sector [9] - A-share market slump [9] - Strengthened regulations in the life insurance industry [9] - Deterioration of the macroeconomic environment [9] 8. Upside Risks - Potential upside risks that could lead to stock trading above target price include: - Accelerated recovery in the P&C sector post-auto insurance reform [11] - A-share market rally [11] - Regulatory relaxation in the life insurance sector [11] - Improved macroeconomic conditions [11] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the PICC Group's 3Q25 conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic outlook, and associated risks.

Core Insights - Tariffs on imported vehicles and parts are expected to indirectly increase car insurance costs due to higher claims expenses resulting from increased repair and replacement costs [1][2][4] Tariff Impact on Insurance Costs - Automotive tariffs could lead to a domino effect, raising the costs of new vehicles and parts, which in turn will increase the costs of insurance claims [2] - Insurers are monitoring the impact of tariffs and potential supply chain disruptions to adjust future rate levels accordingly [4] - The U.S. imposes various tariffs, including a 25% tariff on imported passenger vehicles and major parts, effective April 3, and a 10% tariff on buses, effective November 1 [7] Claims and Premium Adjustments - As claims costs rise due to higher repair expenses, auto insurance premiums are likely to follow suit [3][8] - Approximately 60% of auto replacement parts used in U.S. repairs are imported, which could exacerbate the impact of tariffs on insurance costs [8] - Increased repair costs may lead to more vehicles being totaled, resulting in higher payouts for insurers [9] Repair Times and Rental Coverage - Tariffs may disrupt supply chains, leading to longer repair times and increased costs for rental reimbursement claims [9][10] - Consumers with rental reimbursement coverage may face higher out-of-pocket expenses if repair delays exceed coverage limits [10] Timeline for Rate Changes - Consumers may start seeing impacts on their car insurance bills within 12 to 18 months due to the lag in premium adjustments [10][11] - Insurers typically require months of data to analyze before making rate changes, and some states mandate prior approval, which can delay adjustments [11] Industry Challenges - The automotive industry faces significant challenges in shifting production to the U.S. to avoid tariffs, as relocating supply chains can take years and substantial investment [12][13]