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格隆汇发布美团3Q25更新报告
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-01 06:21
Core Insights - Meituan reported 3Q25 revenue of RMB95.5 billion, a 2% year-over-year increase but 2% below consensus expectations [1] - Core Local Commerce (CLC) revenue declined 2.8% year-over-year to RMB67.4 billion, while revenue from New Initiatives rose 16% year-over-year to RMB28 billion, slightly below the 17% consensus estimate [1] - CLC operating loss widened to RMB14.1 billion, exceeding the consensus loss of RMB13 billion, with an operating margin of -21% [1] - Management anticipates that CLC operating losses will narrow in 4Q25 despite elevated losses due to intensified competition [1] Food Delivery Segment - Competitive intensity in food delivery has eased since Singles' Day, allowing Meituan to recover market share in order value while maintaining leading GTV share [2] - The food delivery segment is expected to incur notable operating losses in 4Q25, depending on December competition levels [2] Instashopping and User Experience - Instashopping operating loss may slightly widen in 4Q25 due to increased investments in user experience during promotional campaigns [3] - Meituan launched Branded Flagship InstaMart, achieving over 300% year-over-year sales growth for partner brands during Singles' Day [3] In-Store, Hotel, and Travel (IHT) Business - Competition in the IHT sector is intensifying, with GTV growth moderating to 18% in 3Q25 [4] - Management expects IHT GTV margins to decline further in 4Q25 before normalizing toward the ~30% margin level [4] Technology and AI Innovations - Meituan is advancing its AI strategy with updates on AI models, chatbots, merchant tools, and internal efficiency improvements [5] Global Expansion of Keeta - Keeta turned profitable in Hong Kong in October 2025, with ongoing improvements expected [6] - Expansion in the Middle East and Brazil is underway, with management optimistic about replicating the Mainland China's food delivery experience [6] Market Share in High-AOV Orders - Meituan holds approximately 67% GTV share for orders above RMB15 and over 70% for orders above RMB30, indicating strong brand strength among high-value users [7] Valuation Metrics - Meituan trades at HK$102.5 per share, with a market cap of HK$626.4 billion, and consensus estimates for CY26 EBITDA at HK$44.7 billion, implying an 11.7x EV/EBITDA multiple [8] - The valuation premium has compressed due to heightened competition, but profitability is expected to recover as competitive pressure normalizes [9]