记者丨周慧 编辑丨李博 视频｜ 实习生柯诗琪 中国的冬季，正是迪拜的旅游和展会旺季，随处可见的工地，蓬勃的房地产业，都在彰显这 里是投资建设的热土。 迪拜是全球重要的货物中转站和贸易中心城市，也是很多中国人到中东的第一站。在豪华的 商场迪拜Mall里，21世纪经济报道记者见到了刚从中国飞到迪拜的九识智能联合创始人、 COO张旭琛，次日清晨他将从迪拜去首都阿布扎比，那里正在举行为期一周的首届阿布扎比 智能与自主技术周的展会。 作为阿联酋的首都，阿布扎比近几年发力文旅、数字化和人工智能等，还通过找刘亦菲做旅 游代言人等营销方式，知名度在中国骤增。 去中东找新机会 来自黑龙江的包车司机张刚（化名），到迪拜工作已经两年，经常开车往返迪拜和阿布扎比 之间接送中国客人。 张刚告诉21世纪经济报道记者，他是通过"老乡带老乡"的方式来迪拜的，接待的客人中，商 旅客人占比较高，包括出差来参加展会和调研的。夏天的时候，这里热得不适合出门，当下 是展会旺季，也是他的生意旺季，每月能挣2万元人民币左右。 除了像张刚这样不会英语的60后中国司机，到迪拜找新机会的还有很多中国科技新贵。 九识智能的张旭琛刚飞到迪拜，和迪拜负责市场的同事王 ...

1. 美团-W第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2025年12月19日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入866.14~963.14亿元，同比变动-2.1%~8.8%； 预测公司Q4一致预期净利润-184.36~-95.89亿元，同比变动-396.3%~-254.1%； 预测公司Q4一致预期经调整净利润-172.43~-88.83亿元，同比变动-275.1%~-190.2%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 | 京山本江:16元人民出 | | | | | | | 关注朝阳水域公众 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机构简称- | | 布日期 - 一度业收入 | 同比 | 净利润 | 同比 | 经调整净利润 | 同比 | | 卖方预测区间 | | 866.14~963.14 | -2.1%>~8.8% | -184.36~-95.89 | -396.3%~-254.1% | -172.43~-88.83 | -275.1%~-190.2% | | 平均数 | - ...

（原标题：21特写｜科技新贵为何扎堆去中东？） 21世纪经济报道记者周慧 迪拜报道 中国的冬季，正是迪拜的旅游和展会旺季，随处可见的工地，蓬勃的房地产业，都在彰显这里是投资建 设的热土。 迪拜是全球重要的货物中转站和贸易中心城市，也是很多中国人到中东的第一站。在豪华的商场迪拜 Mall里，21世纪经济报道记者见到了刚从中国飞到迪拜到的九识智能联合创始人、COO张旭琛，次日清 晨他将从迪拜去首都阿布扎比，那里正在举行为期一周的首届阿布扎比智能与自主技术周的展会。 作为阿联酋的首都，阿布扎比近几年发力文旅、数字化和人工智能等，还通过找刘亦菲做旅游代言人等 营销方式，知名度在中国骤增。 在社交媒体的叙事中，中东是富得流油的地方，接受21世纪经济报道记者采访的中国科技公司创业者们 否认去"中东淘金"的说法。他们表示，中企出海中东一直都有，在一段时间里，到中东很多赚到钱的是 做中介、培训生意，现在他们希望能参与到当地的经济转型中，做长期的投资布局。 近几年，出海中东热度增加，随着沙特"2030愿景"、阿联酋"2031年国家投资战略"、科威特"2035国家 愿景"等一系列长期战略规划落地，海湾国家在旅游、金融、物流、房地 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed weakness with the Hang Seng Index down 1.29%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 1.62%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.9% as of the last trading session [2] - The total market turnover was HKD 210.24 billion, with short selling amounting to HKD 36.64 billion, representing 19.34% of the total turnover [2] - Northbound trading saw a net inflow of HKD 531 million, with Tencent, Xiaomi, and Alibaba being the most actively bought stocks [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The real estate sector experienced significant declines, with major companies like Agile Group down 18.42% and China Jinmao down 14.6% [3] - The metals and gold sector also faced pressure, with Jiangxi Copper down 6.51% and China Aluminum down 5.69% [4] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, with the S&P 500 slightly down by 0.09% and the Nasdaq up by 0.13% [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Meituan (3690.HK) - Meituan reported a total revenue of RMB 95.5 billion for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 2%, slightly below expectations [7] - The adjusted operating loss was RMB 15.3 billion, with the core local business segment suffering a loss of RMB 14.1 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by RMB 1.5 billion [7] - Despite short-term performance pressures, Meituan's app daily active users (DAU) increased by 20% year-on-year, indicating strong user engagement [8] Group 4: Business Segment Insights - In the food delivery segment, Meituan saw a healthy growth in daily orders, although revenue declined due to increased rider and user subsidies [8] - The flash purchase segment experienced growth in new user acquisition and order frequency, benefiting from a rich supply [8] - The hotel and travel segment also showed robust growth, with merchant numbers and user scale increasing by nearly 20% year-on-year [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Meituan's overseas business, particularly the Keeta brand, is expected to maintain optimistic long-term potential, with profitability achieved in Hong Kong ahead of schedule [9] - The company anticipates that losses from new business segments will become manageable by 2026, reflecting improved operational efficiency [9] - Financial forecasts suggest a slight decline in core local business revenue for Q4, with an upward adjustment in net loss expectations for 2025 [10]

Group 1: Core Insights - The overseas business segments of major Chinese internet companies have become "profit dark horses," with Alibaba's international digital commerce turning profitable, Meituan's Keeta achieving monthly profitability in Hong Kong, and Tencent's overseas gaming revenue surging by 43% year-on-year [1] - As domestic internet traffic growth reaches diminishing returns, going overseas has become a necessary strategy for companies, evolving from "go overseas or go home" to "no core capabilities, no overseas expansion" [1] Group 2: Cross-Border E-commerce - Alibaba's international retail business reported revenue of 28.068 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, driven by growth from AliExpress and other international operations [2] - The international wholesale business generated 6.731 billion yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year, attributed to growth in value-added services related to cross-border business [2] - Temu's gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth is primarily due to rapid penetration in the European (30-40% share, 60-70% year-on-year growth) and Latin American markets (over 15% share), while growth in North America is slowing [2][3] Group 3: Local Lifestyle Services - Meituan's Keeta achieved its first monthly profitability in Hong Kong, marking a significant milestone in its overseas expansion [4] - Keeta is expanding in the Middle East and Brazil, utilizing AI algorithms and big data to optimize delivery routes and improve efficiency [4][5] - The competitive landscape in Brazil is intense, with Didi and Uber also expanding their food delivery services, indicating a battle for market share [6] Group 4: Entertainment Sector - Tencent's international gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a 43% year-on-year increase, driven by successful titles like "Clash Royale" and "PUBG MOBILE" [7] - NetEase's overseas strategy is undergoing significant adjustments, with the closure of several overseas studios despite some successful game launches [8] Group 5: Mobile Phones - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue declined by 3.1% year-on-year to 46 billion yuan, attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) [9] - Xiaomi's overseas internet service revenue reached a record high of 3.3 billion yuan, growing by 19.1% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the share of high-margin overseas market revenue [10] - The competition in the African market between Xiaomi and Transsion is intensifying, leading to price wars [10] Group 6: Conclusion - The third-quarter financial reports indicate a shift in Chinese internet companies' overseas strategies, moving from reliance on policy advantages and low prices to focusing on supply chain capabilities, AI technology, localization, and compliance management [12] - The transformation represents an upgrade from being participants in the global value chain to integrators, with challenges such as geopolitical compliance risks and cultural differences remaining significant [13]

Core Insights - Keeta, the international brand of the world's largest food delivery company, officially launched in São Paulo on December 1, competing directly with the Chinese food delivery brand 99 [1] - The Brazilian food delivery market, valued at over $10 billion with an annual growth rate of 20%, has attracted numerous companies, making it one of the most competitive markets for Keeta outside of China [1] - Keeta has introduced smart helmet technology and route simulation systems in Brazil to enhance delivery efficiency and safety, providing features such as voice navigation and accident awareness for delivery personnel [1] - The initial rollout of smart helmets will be for bicycle riders, with a mid-term goal to cover all partnered drivers [1] - Currently, the platform has registered 98,200 delivery personnel in Brazil [1]

机构：长江证券 研究员：赵刚/杨会强/曹淑蕊 FY2025Q3，公司实现营收954.9 亿元（低于彭博一致预期的974.7 亿元），同比+2%；经调整净亏损 160.1 亿元（高于彭博一致预期的139.6 亿元）。 新业务：10 月底，Keeta 正式上线巴西运营，预计12 月1 日将进入巴西最大城市圣保罗。巴西外卖市场 竞争激烈，包括iFood、滴滴等，然而参考此前公司进入巴西市场时签署10 亿美元投资协议，预计投入 整体可控，预计新业务26 年亏损将不超过25 年。巴西作为出海第三站，此前Keeta 已于中国香港及中 东取得阶段性成果（中国香港已在10 月实现盈利），有望将成熟经验进一步复制至海外。预计Keeta 远 期将为美团贡献1000 亿美元GTV，对应2024 年美团国内外卖规模约70%。 事件评论 盈利预测与投资建议：本季度美团外卖竞争压力达到峰值，后续伴随补贴收窄，对于高频刚需、长期看 复购而非拉新的外卖而言，用户粘性与品牌认知形成的复购是平台能力的核心，最终竞争走向或落地于 管理体系效率、配送服务质量等运营细节层面，长期外卖UE有望回升至1 元水平，建议关注补贴投入 的边际拐点，带来公司价值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [9] Core Insights - In Q3 FY2025, Meituan's revenue reached 954.9 billion CNY, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 974.7 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%. The adjusted net loss was 160.1 billion CNY, exceeding the expected loss of 139.6 billion CNY [6][10] - The report highlights that the competitive pressure in the food delivery sector has peaked, and as subsidies narrow, the focus will shift towards user retention and brand recognition, which are crucial for long-term repurchase rather than new customer acquisition [2][10] - The report projects Meituan's overall revenue for 2025-2027 to be 3,640.67 billion CNY, 4,084.78 billion CNY, and 4,551.56 billion CNY, with adjusted net profits of -115.25 billion CNY, 215.34 billion CNY, and 445.67 billion CNY respectively [2][10] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Core local business revenue was 674 billion CNY, below the consensus estimate of 692 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 141 billion CNY compared to the expected loss of 126 billion CNY. The operating profit margin was -20.9% [10] - New business revenue was 280 billion CNY, slightly below the expected 286 billion CNY, with a year-on-year operating loss increase of 24.5% to 13 billion CNY [10] Food Delivery and Flash Purchase - The core local business saw a significant operating loss of approximately 191 billion CNY in Q3, with the average order value (AOV) for high-priced orders (above 15 CNY) accounting for two-thirds of the gross transaction value (GTV) [10] - The report emphasizes that user stickiness and brand recognition are essential for the platform's capabilities, and future competition will likely focus on operational efficiency and service quality [10] In-store Dining and Travel - The in-store dining and travel segment contributed approximately 180 billion CNY in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The operating profit was 51 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 28% [10] New Business Initiatives - Meituan's new business, Keeta, officially launched operations in Brazil, with expectations of manageable investment levels. The report anticipates that Keeta could contribute significantly to Meituan's GTV in the long term [10]

Core Insights - The company is increasing investments in user, rider, merchant subsidies, and ecosystem development to consolidate market share amid intensified competition in the instant delivery sector [1] - The company has revised its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to -19.9 billion, 32.2 billion, and 54.2 billion yuan, respectively, down from -2.6 billion, 35.8 billion, and 58.8 billion yuan [1] - The company anticipates a return to profitability in 2026 as the competitive landscape stabilizes, with a projected net profit growth rate of 68.4% in 2027 [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 95.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 97.47 billion yuan [2] - The non-IFRS net loss for Q3 2025 was 16.01 billion yuan, worse than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of a loss of 13.96 billion yuan, primarily due to fierce competition in the food delivery sector [2] - Core business revenue declined by 2.8% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan and an operating loss margin of 20.9% [2] Business Segments - The delivery service revenue fell by 17.1% year-on-year, attributed to increased subsidies and competitive pressures in the food delivery market [2] - New business revenue grew by 15.9% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan, but the loss margin improved by 2.5 percentage points, mainly due to enhanced efficiency in the Hong Kong and Middle Eastern markets [2] - The company plans to pilot its new business, Keeta, in Brazil in late October 2025, expecting to continue significant investments during the initial phase [2]

Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2025 revenue reached 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but adjusted net profit was a loss of 16.009 billion yuan, falling short of Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The core local business turned from profit to loss due to intensified competition, while new business losses improved [1] Local Business Performance - Q3 revenue for the core local business was 67.4 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan, resulting in an operating loss margin of 20.9%, which was lower than market expectations due to ongoing competition in the food delivery sector [1][2] - The company increased delivery subsidies and user incentives to combat competition, leading to significant losses in the food delivery business, but it maintained market share and user engagement [2] - Daily active users and monthly transaction users for restaurant delivery reached historical highs, with a steady growth in core user base and an increase in high-frequency users [2] New Business Developments - Q3 revenue for new businesses was 28 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan, and the operating loss margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 4.6%, better than market expectations [1][3] - The company is expanding its grocery retail business, including Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Keta, which are showing strong growth and improving operational efficiency [3] - Keta has accelerated its global expansion, achieving profitability in the Hong Kong market and steady market share growth in Saudi Arabia, with plans to enter Kuwait, UAE, and Brazil [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that Q4 losses will marginally improve compared to Q3, although competitive strategies from rivals need to be monitored [2] - The upgraded membership system is expected to enhance user engagement and transaction frequency, supporting growth across various business areas [2] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to the impact of food delivery competition, with expected adjusted profits of -14.2 billion, 1.2 billion, and 24.6 billion yuan respectively [3]