Group 1: Conagra Brands - Conagra Brands has seen its stock price decline to around $19, trading at about 11 times forward earnings, which is considered a bargain compared to the S&P 500's nearly 22 times forward earnings [4] - The company has experienced a 50% loss in stock value over the past three years, with net sales declining by 6.8% in fiscal Q2 2026, partly due to the sale of non-core brands [3] - Conagra's dividend yield is currently at 7.3%, the highest in the S&P 500, despite a payout ratio approaching 80%, which is above its target of 50%-55% [4] Group 2: Kimberly Clark - Kimberly Clark's stock has lost about 25% of its value over the last three years, with sales down 2.1% last year primarily due to divestitures [5] - The stock is currently priced over $110 per share, trading at about 15 times earnings, which is cheaper than the broader market [6] - Kimberly Clark has a dividend yield of 4.3% and has extended its streak of dividend increases to 54 years, qualifying it as a Dividend King [6]

Core Thesis - Conagra Brands, Inc. is viewed positively due to its diversified portfolio and potential for future growth despite current challenges [1][2] Company Overview - Conagra Brands, Inc. is a U.S.-based packaged food company with a diverse range of products across Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice segments [2] - The company boasts a strong brand lineup including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Marie Callender's, and Slim Jim, supported by over 40 manufacturing facilities and approximately 18,300 employees [2] Current Challenges - The company faces margin pressures due to persistent commodity inflation in proteins and tariffs on tin-plate steel and aluminum, which have increased costs by roughly 3% [3] - Management anticipates a 2% year-over-year decline in organic net sales, exacerbated by temporary supply chain disruptions in frozen meals [3] Future Outlook - Conagra is implementing a "Fuel for Growth" initiative aimed at modernizing the supply chain, targeting $1 billion in cumulative cost savings over three years [4] - Successful execution of this initiative could restore margins and enhance free cash flow generation [4] Investment Appeal - As a consumer staples company, Conagra offers recession resilience, with stable demand for affordable at-home food products during economic downturns [5] - The stock features an approximately 8% dividend yield, appealing to income-oriented investors [5] Innovation Potential - The company plans to launch over 50 new frozen products, expand gluten-free offerings, and eliminate artificial dyes by the end of 2025 [6] - While historical revenue growth has been modest, successful innovation and cost-saving measures could stabilize performance and support a gradual rerating of the stock [6]

Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is experiencing a difficult environment characterized by a slowdown in consumer spending, elevated inflation, and tariffs, leading to a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) and nearing a 5-year low [1] Financial Performance - In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Conagra reported earnings of $0.45, beating the Zacks Consensus of $0.44, marking the second consecutive earnings beat [2] - Net sales decreased by 6.8%, with organic net sales down by 3.0%, although the company is optimistic about a return to net sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year [3] Guidance and Inflation - Conagra reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, expecting organic net sales to change by a loss of 1% to 1% compared to fiscal 2025, with earnings projected between $1.70 and $1.85 [4] - The company anticipates continued elevated costs of goods sold inflation, with total cost of goods inflation expected to reach 7% in fiscal 2026, influenced by U.S. tariffs increasing costs by 3% before mitigations [5] Analyst Revisions - Analysts have cut fiscal 2026 earnings estimates, with the Zacks Consensus falling to $1.72 from $1.75, indicating a 25.2% decline in earnings [6] - For fiscal 2027, estimates were also reduced, with the Zacks Consensus dropping to $1.79 from $1.86, reflecting a projected earnings growth of 4.2% [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Conagra's shares have declined significantly over the past year, now near 5-year lows [10] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.6, suggesting it may be undervalued [12] Dividend Information - Conagra pays a dividend of $1.40 per share, yielding 8.5%, with dividends paid in the first half of fiscal 2026 remaining flat year over year at $335 million [13]

Core Insights - The U.S. frozen food market is valued at $93.5 billion and is being shaped by four key themes: protein-packed meals, restaurant-inspired favorites, family-style solutions, and all-day breakfast [1][2] Group 1: Emerging Trends - Protein remains the most influential nutrition attribute, with high-protein frozen foods generating $12 billion annually and growing at double-digit volume rates [5] - "Takeout-style" frozen foods total $14.3 billion in annual sales, driven by younger generations and families seeking restaurant-quality taste and convenience [5] - Multi-serve meals and frozen sides account for approximately $12 billion in sales, with value-size frozen products making up over 40% of frozen aisle sales [5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly relying on frozen foods to meet daily protein needs, with frozen meals averaging high protein levels per serving [5] - The trend of recreating restaurant experiences at home is growing, particularly as dining out becomes more expensive [5] - Breakfast items are being consumed throughout the day, with high-protein, ready-to-heat formats gaining popularity among Gen Z and Millennials [5]

Core Viewpoint - Conagra Brands, Inc. is facing significant stock underperformance despite a strong market position and positive quarterly results, with ongoing challenges from inflation and tariffs impacting future earnings expectations [1][2][4]. Company Overview - Conagra Brands has a market capitalization of $8.2 billion and operates in the North American packaged foods sector with a diverse brand portfolio including Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Slim Jim, Reddi-wip, and Marie Callender's [1]. - The company operates across four segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice, focusing on innovative food products that cater to changing consumer preferences [1]. Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Conagra's stock has decreased by 41.1%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which has increased by 18.5% during the same period [2]. - Year-to-date, the stock is down 38.3%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 15.1% [2]. Recent Financial Results - On October 1, Conagra reported Q1 2026 revenue of $2.63 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.39, exceeding expectations [4]. - The company has maintained its annual forecasts despite facing inflation and tariff pressures, indicating confidence in its pricing actions and cost-saving initiatives to offset rising costs [4]. Earnings Expectations - For the fiscal year ending in May 2026, analysts project a 23.5% year-over-year decrease in adjusted EPS to $1.76 [5]. - Conagra's earnings surprise history is mixed, with two beats and two misses in the last four quarters [5]. Analyst Ratings - Among 17 analysts covering Conagra, the consensus rating is a "Hold," with two "Strong Buy," 13 "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and one "Strong Sell" [5]. - Morgan Stanley has set a price target of $21, with a mean price target of $20.53 indicating a nearly 20% premium to current levels, while the highest target of $27 suggests a potential upside of 57.8% [6].

Core Insights - Conagra Brands Inc. reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results that exceeded Wall Street expectations but showed year-over-year declines in key metrics [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved net sales of $2.63 billion, a decrease of 5.8% compared to the prior-year period, while adjusted earnings per share were 39 cents, down 26.4% [2] - Wall Street analysts had anticipated net sales of $2.62 billion and earnings of 33 cents per share [3] Sales Breakdown - The decline in net sales was attributed to a 5.1% impact from mergers and acquisitions, a 0.6% drop in organic sales, and a minor 0.1% foreign exchange effect [3] - Within organic sales, a 0.6% price/mix benefit was more than offset by a 1.2% decline in volume [4] Segment Performance - Grocery & Snacks revenue fell 8.7% to $1.1 billion, with a 1.0% decline in organic net sales [6] - Refrigerated & Frozen sales decreased 0.9% to $1.1 billion, but organic net sales rose 0.2% due to a 0.5% increase in volume [6] - International segment revenue declined 18% to $212 million, with organic net sales down 3.5% [7] - Foodservice sales dipped 0.8% to $264 million, while organic net sales rose 0.2% [7] Cash Position - Conagra reported cash and cash equivalents of $698.1 million at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [4] Management Commentary - The CEO highlighted successful supply chain objectives and a focus on disciplined execution amid ongoing inflationary pressures and cautious consumer sentiment [5] Outlook - For fiscal 2026, the company reaffirmed guidance, projecting organic net sales growth between -1% and 1%, an adjusted operating margin of 11.0%–11.5%, and adjusted EPS of $1.70–$1.85 [8]

Company Overview - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) has a market cap of $8.7 billion and is a leading North American packaged foods company with a diverse portfolio including brands like Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Slim Jim, Reddi-wip, and Marie Callender's [1] - The company operates across four segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice, focusing on innovative food products that cater to changing consumer preferences [1] Financial Performance - Conagra Brands is set to announce its Q1 2026 results on October 1, with analysts expecting an adjusted EPS of $0.33, a decrease of 37.7% from $0.53 in the same quarter last year [2] - For fiscal 2026, analysts forecast an adjusted EPS of $1.73, representing a 24.8% decrease from $2.30 in fiscal 2025, but anticipate an 8.7% year-over-year growth to $1.88 in fiscal 2027 [3] Stock Performance - Shares of Conagra Brands have declined over 44% in the past 52 weeks, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's 15.4% return and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund's 5.9% decline [4] - Following the release of weak Q4 2025 results, shares fell 4.4%, with adjusted EPS of $0.56 missing consensus estimates and net sales of $2.8 billion down 4.3% year-over-year [5] Analyst Sentiment - The consensus view on CAG stock is cautious, with a "Hold" rating from 17 analysts; two recommend "Strong Buy," 12 suggest "Hold," one advises "Moderate Sell," and two "Strong Sells" [6] - The average analyst price target for Conagra Brands is $20.47, indicating a potential upside of 13.2% from current levels [6]

Group 1 - Conagra Brands, Inc. is facing challenges due to 7% inflation and issues with tin can supply, which are negatively impacting its margins [2] - The company has a portfolio of well-known brands, including Slim Jim, Marie Callender's, and Duncan Hines, but is struggling to pass on price increases to consumers [2] - Despite these challenges, Conagra has indicated that it can maintain its dividend payments, although concerns about the sustainability of dividends are raised [2] Group 2 - Jim Cramer emphasizes the importance of growth in stocks over high dividends, suggesting that high dividends may indicate underlying problems within the company [1] - The overall sentiment is that while Conagra has potential, other sectors, particularly AI stocks, may offer better investment opportunities with less risk [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in stock prices of Conagra Brands and Campbell's Company presents a potential buying opportunity for patient investors despite the challenges faced by the packaged food industry [3][20]. Industry Overview - The packaged food industry is experiencing a severe slowdown due to pullbacks in consumer spending and inflation, which have particularly impacted packaged food companies [5]. - A shift in consumer behavior towards healthier options poses a significant challenge for the industry, especially for companies focused on frozen and processed meals [6]. Company Performance - Conagra and Campbell's stocks have both dropped over 25% year to date, reaching their lowest levels in over a decade, resulting in dividend yields of 6.8% and 5.1%, respectively [1][2][16]. - Both companies have faced difficulties due to poor acquisition decisions, with Conagra's acquisition of Pinnacle Foods for $10.9 billion and Campbell's acquisition of Snyder's-Lance for $6.1 billion being particularly criticized [11][12][13]. Financial Metrics - Conagra's free cash flow (FCF) per share is $3.02, while its dividend per share is $1.40; Campbell's FCF per share is $2.41 against a dividend of $1.52, indicating that both companies can support their dividends despite weakening balance sheets [18]. - In terms of valuations, Campbell's has a price-to-FCF ratio of 12.8 and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.5, while Conagra has a price-to-FCF ratio of 6.8 and a forward P/E of 8.3, showing that both stocks are significantly discounted compared to their historical averages [19]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory pressures, such as the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' measures to phase out synthetic dyes, add to the challenges faced by the industry but could lead to long-term benefits [7][9]. - Conagra announced plans to remove synthetic colors from its U.S. frozen product portfolio by the end of 2025, aligning with industry trends towards healthier ingredients [8].

Conagra Brands (CAG) Conference Summary Company Overview - Conagra Brands is one of the largest packaged food companies in the US, with a diverse portfolio including frozen snacks and shelf-stable products, serving retail, food service, and international markets. Notable brands include Marie Callender's, Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, and Slim Jim [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Portfolio Transformation - Over the past ten years, Conagra has transformed from a diversified global holding company to a branded pure play focused on North America. This involved modernizing existing brands, acquiring new businesses, and divesting underperforming assets [4][5]. - The current portfolio has a significant focus on organic net sales from retail, particularly in frozen and permissible snacking, which now constitutes about two-thirds of retail sales [5][6]. Consumer Trends and Market Environment - The company has observed a shift towards conservatism among consumers due to prolonged inflation and economic uncertainty. This trend affects all income groups, particularly lower-income consumers [9][10]. - The current environment is characterized by cautious spending, with consumers prioritizing value and quality in their purchases [10][11]. Promotional Strategy - Conagra has reduced promotional activities compared to pre-COVID levels, focusing on high-quality merchandising rather than deep discounting. This strategy aims to drive volume growth through quality products [12][14]. - The competitive landscape remains rational, with a collective industry focus on improving volume trends after experiencing declines [16][18]. Input Costs and Inflation - The company faces significant input cost pressures, particularly from tariffs on tinplate and aluminum, with a 25% tariff impacting costs. Mitigation strategies include negotiating with suppliers and exploring alternative sourcing [20][22]. - Inflation is projected at 4% for the fiscal year, up from an initial estimate of 3%. The company is actively managing costs and exploring pricing strategies to offset inflationary pressures [26][27][54]. Frozen and Snacking Segments - The frozen food segment is experiencing a return to volume growth, driven by consumer demand for convenience and quality. The company aims to educate consumers on the benefits of frozen foods, which are perceived as high-quality and cost-effective [33][35][38]. - In the snacking category, Conagra has focused on permissible snacking options, such as meat snacks and popcorn, which have shown strong growth despite broader industry softness. The company has expanded its portfolio to include various meat snack brands [39][41][46]. Future Outlook and Guidance - The company is optimistic about maintaining volume growth and improving margins, despite ongoing supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures. The focus remains on optimizing trade management and promotional investments [49][52][54]. - Conagra plans to provide further guidance for fiscal year 2026 in the upcoming earnings call, with expectations of navigating through current uncertainties [60][62]. Capital Allocation and Debt Management - Conagra emphasizes a balanced approach to capital allocation, prioritizing debt paydown while also considering investments in business modernization and strategic acquisitions. The recent divestiture of Chef Boyardee aligns with this strategy [67][72]. - The company has successfully reduced leverage and aims to continue generating free cash flow to support debt reduction and strategic growth initiatives [64][66]. Additional Important Insights - The company has experienced supply chain disruptions, particularly in its frozen vegetable and chicken businesses, but is on track to recover by the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [75][78]. - Innovations, such as the Banquet Mega Chicken Filet, have driven demand and contributed to supply challenges, highlighting the importance of product development in meeting consumer needs [79][80].