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Expect Pfizer bid to beat Novo for Metsera, says BMO's Evan David Seigerman
CNBC Television· 2025-11-05 23:02
Mergers and Acquisitions - Metser is considered valuable due to the obesity market's potential, estimated to be upwards of $130 billion when combined with diabetes [1] - Pfizer's acquisition of Metser could establish them as a significant third player in the obesity market [2] - Novo needs the acquisition to bolster growth, given previous share declines and challenges [2] - A de-risked obesity asset like Metser is highly sought after, with potential for Pfizer's bid to surpass Novo Nordisk's; Pfizer has already received FTC clearance, allowing for a quick closing [7] Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is currently dominated by Lily and Novo [2] - Lily's oral GLP-1 pill launch next year will be a competitive product [3][4] - Meter provides Novo with a longer-acting GLP-1 option (once a month instead of once a week) and another option for amylin [5] - Novo aims to have multiple assets in the amylin space, including cagrilintide amylin and potentially the Metser asset [6] Drug Pricing and Market Access - A deal is expected where the lowest dose of weight loss drugs would be sold on Trump RX for $149 in exchange for Medicaid and Medicare coverage for obesity treatment [8] - The $149 price is meaningful as it addresses the missing piece of Medicare coverage for the obesity market [9] - The $299 price for Zepbound is a good deal, only $50 lower than Lily Direct's cash pay price, and higher doses are expected to be more expensive, resulting in a net win for Lily and Novo due to increased market access [9][10]
Pfizer Stock Slips. Under the Surface, Earnings Weren’t Great.
Barrons· 2025-11-04 17:59
Core Viewpoint - Pfizer's stock has declined nearly 60% since the end of 2021, despite third-quarter financial results exceeding expectations, primarily due to underperformance in key growth products [2][5][7]. Financial Performance - Adjusted diluted earnings were $0.87 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.63 per share [3]. - Revenue reached $16.7 billion, slightly above the expected $16.5 billion [3]. - The revenue increase was largely driven by older products, while cost reductions and lower tax liabilities contributed positively to the bottom line [3][7]. Product Performance - Sales of Eliquis, a blood thinner, amounted to $2 billion, up 22% year-over-year, exceeding the $1.8 billion consensus estimate [9]. - Sales of Paxlovid, the Covid-19 antiviral, were $1.2 billion, down 55% from the previous year, while Comirnaty, the Covid-19 vaccine, also saw a 20% decline in sales [11]. - Sales of Padcev and Adcetris, cancer treatments acquired from Seagen, were $464 million and $215 million respectively, both falling short of Wall Street expectations [12]. Strategic Outlook - Pfizer maintained its full-year revenue forecast but narrowed its earnings estimate to between $3 and $3.15 per share, up from a previous range of $2.90 to $3.10 [13]. - The company is facing challenges as key products approach patent expirations, and the market for Covid-19 products has contracted [5][7]. - Ongoing legal issues regarding the acquisition of Mestera have added uncertainty to Pfizer's strategic positioning in the obesity market [14].
Amneal Pharmaceuticals(AMRX) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-05 13:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, total net revenues increased by 3% to $720 million, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 13% to $184 million and adjusted EPS rising by 56% [23][24][27] - For the first half of 2025, total company revenues grew by 4%, adjusted EBITDA increased by 12%, and adjusted EPS rose by 50% [27][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Affordable medicines revenue was $433 million, growing by 1% year-over-year, driven by new product launches adding $33 million [23][24] - Specialty revenue reached $128 million, a 23% increase year-over-year, with key products like Krexan contributing significantly [24][25] - AvKARE revenues declined by 4%, but gross margin increased by 540 basis points, and operating income rose by 44% [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. market share for Krexan is approximately 2%, with expectations to exceed 3% by year-end [6] - The biosimilars market is projected to see significant growth due to an increase in biologic patent expirations, with Amneal anticipating six marketed biosimilars by 2027 [11][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Amneal is transitioning from generics to innovative and complex medicines, focusing on specialty products and biosimilars as key growth drivers [5][6] - The company aims to be America's number one affordable medicines company, with a strategic goal to enhance access and care for patients [12][21] - Amneal is investing in manufacturing capabilities and partnerships, such as with MedCera, to expand its product offerings and market reach [9][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory, citing strong performance in specialty products and a robust pipeline of new launches [4][10] - The company is optimistic about the impact of new federal tax legislation, expecting approximately $46 million in tax savings, primarily from R&D expensing [30][31] Other Important Information - Amneal has fully refinanced $2.7 billion of debt, reducing interest costs and extending maturities to 2032 [30] - The company plans to launch 20 to 30 new products annually, with 15 new products already launched in 2025 [18][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Status of Krexan and Rytary in the Parkinson's franchise - Management indicated that Rytary has not yet seen generic competition, which is beneficial for revenue this year, with expectations for a trough in revenue next year due to increased competition [34][36] Question: Profitability of MetCera collaboration - The collaboration is structured to provide higher margins than typical CMO or CDMO arrangements, with significant opportunities in international markets [38][39] Question: Update on Rytary generic launches and reimbursement status - Teva holds exclusivity on the generic Rytary, and commercial coverage for Crexan has exceeded expectations, currently at over 60% [44][49] Question: Drivers of revenue guidance for the second half - The company expects stronger revenue in the second half due to new product introductions and completed facility upgrades that enhance supply capabilities [63][64] Question: Thoughts on tariffs and their impact on the industry - Management discussed the potential chaos from high tariffs and emphasized the importance of U.S. manufacturing to mitigate risks [67][70] Question: Vertical integration of the biosimilars business - The company is focused on executing quickly in the biosimilars market while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation [76][81]