29 September 2025 | 7:24AM CST Equity Research CHINA SOLAR: TRACKING PROFITABILITY INFLECTION Sep Poly/Glass price above expectation, but likely to be reversed as downstream inventory piles up Our China Solar Profitability Tracker follows monthly supply/demand and inventory dynamics by sub-sector, and the spot prices/input costs implied cash GP & EBITDA margin trends for companies under our coverage. Key highlights in Sep MTD: Jacqueline Du +852-2978-1783 | jacqueline.du@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. c ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Clean Energy, specifically focusing on solar products in China and the Asia Pacific region [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Polysilicon Prices**: - Average price for chunk polysilicon reached Rmb51/kg, reflecting a 2.0% increase week-over-week (WoW) [3][7] - Granular polysilicon prices remained stable at Rmb49/kg [7] - **Wafer and Cell Prices**: - Domestic wafer prices increased by 0-3.8% WoW, with prices ranging from Rmb1.35 to Rmb1.70 per piece [7] - Domestic cell prices remained flat WoW, priced between Rmb0.285 and Rmb0.31 per watt [7] - **Module Prices**: - TOPCon module prices for ground-mounted and distributed projects were stable at Rmb0.67/W and Rmb0.70/W, respectively [7] - Prices for TOPCon modules in the US, EU, and India also remained unchanged, with US prices at US$0.30/W [7] - **Solar Film and Resin Prices**: - Prices for solar films increased by 0-8.1% WoW, while EVA resin prices rose by 0.9-3.5% WoW [7] - POE resin prices remained stable [7] Year-over-Year and Month-over-Month Changes - **Year-over-Year (YoY) Changes**: - Polysilicon prices increased by 27.5% YoY, while wafer prices rose by 25.0% YoY [2] - Cell prices saw a 10.7% increase YoY [2] - TOPCon bifacial module prices decreased by 8.0% YoY [2] - **Month-over-Month (MoM) Changes**: - Polysilicon prices increased by 15.9% MoM, while wafer prices rose by 12.5% MoM [2] - Cell prices increased by 6.9% MoM [2] Additional Important Information - **Market Sentiment**: The clean energy sector, particularly solar products, is viewed as attractive for investment [4] - **Analyst Contacts**: Key analysts involved in the report include Eva Hou, Albert Li, and Estelle Wang, providing insights into the clean energy market [3] Conclusion The clean energy sector, particularly solar products in China, is experiencing price increases across various components, indicating a robust market environment. The stability in module prices and the increase in polysilicon and wafer prices suggest a positive outlook for the industry moving forward.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Solar Industry**, particularly the implications of China's anti-involution policies on the solar value chain [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Consolidation of Solar Value Chain**: The consolidation of China's main solar value chain is expected to occur in a more commercial and market-oriented manner, with moderate government guidance. The recovery pace will depend significantly on the progress of the polysilicon industry consolidation [1][2]. - **Price Stabilization**: Prices across the value chain (polysilicon, wafer, cell, module) are likely to stabilize at current levels until early 2026, close to the production costs of top players, due to reduced demand in the second half of 2025 following market tariff reforms [2][3]. - **Challenges in Module Segment**: The solar module segment faces challenges in passing through price recoveries from upstream segments due to weak domestic demand and a fragmented competitive landscape. This may hinder significant price recovery and profitability for Chinese module manufacturers [3][4]. - **Forecasts for Polysilicon and Module Prices**: The base case scenario forecasts polysilicon prices to gradually recover to Rmb49/kg in 2026 and Rmb58/kg in 2027, while module prices are expected to reach Rmb0.72/w and Rmb0.78/w in the same years. Gross margins for integrated module players are projected to improve to 2% in 2026 and 11% in 2027, compared to -7% in 2025 [4]. Investment Implications - **Preferred Stocks**: The analysis favors investments in companies such as **Reliance Industries** in India, **Gulf Development** in Southeast Asia, and US players like **First Solar** and **Shoals Technologies**. Chinese solar auxiliary materials and solar glass players like **Hangzhou First**, **Flat Glass**, and **Xinyi Solar** are also recommended due to their balanced supply-demand dynamics [5][11]. - **Underweight Recommendations**: There is an underweight recommendation for Chinese solar manufacturing equipment suppliers like **Jingsheng** and **Maxwell**, as well as integrated module players such as **LONGi** [7]. Additional Important Insights - **Acquisition Fund Likelihood**: There is a reasonable likelihood of an acquisition fund being initiated by leading polysilicon manufacturers, although the consolidation process may require multiple negotiation rounds to address the interests of acquired companies and regional governments [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report includes various valuation metrics for companies in the solar value chain, indicating a range of P/E ratios and other financial metrics for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9][11]. - **Stock Performance**: The stock price performance over the past month, three months, and year is provided, showing varying trends across different companies in the solar sector [11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global solar industry, particularly in relation to China's market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Clean Energy, specifically focusing on solar products in China [1] - **Date**: August 6, 2025 [1] Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Stability**: Prices of polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules remained stable week-over-week (WoW) [6][6] - **Polysilicon Prices**: - Average price: Rmb 44/kg, unchanged WoW - Price range: Rmb 42-50/kg [6] - **Granular Polysilicon Prices**: - Average price: Rmb 44/kg, unchanged WoW - Price range: Rmb 43-46/kg [6] - **Solar Films**: Prices dropped by 0-1.9% WoW, while EVA resin and POE resin prices remained stable [6] - **Monthly Changes**: - Polysilicon prices increased by 25.7% month-over-month (MoM) [2] - Wafer prices for 182mm and 210mm increased by 36.4% and 31.4% MoM, respectively [2] - **Yearly Changes**: - Polysilicon prices increased by 12.8% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Prices of solar films decreased YoY, with transparent EVA film down by 9.5% [2] Additional Important Information - **Market Dynamics**: The report indicates a stable pricing environment for solar products, which may suggest a balanced supply-demand scenario in the market [6] - **Regional Pricing**: The report includes pricing for various solar products across different regions, indicating a diverse market landscape [2] - **Analyst Contact Information**: Analysts involved in the report include Eva Hou, Estelle Wang, and Evan Chen, providing avenues for further inquiries [3] Conclusion - The clean energy sector, particularly solar products in China, is experiencing stable pricing with some fluctuations in specific product categories. The overall market appears to be resilient, with year-over-year price increases in polysilicon and stable prices in other segments.

Investment Rating - The industry view for China Utilities is rated as Attractive [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a stable pricing environment for solar products, with polysilicon prices averaging Rmb35/kg, remaining flat week-over-week, while granular polysilicon prices decreased by 1.4% week-over-week [5] - The report notes a downward trend in prices for N-type wafers and TOPCon cells, with decreases of up to 3.1% week-over-week [5] - Year-over-year price changes show significant declines across various solar products, with polysilicon prices down 10.3%, and TOPCon bifacial modules down 20.9% [2][5] Summary by Sections Price Summary - Polysilicon prices averaged Rmb35/kg, with a weekly average of Rmb19.00/kg for polysilicon in USD terms [2] - Wafer prices for 182mm and 210mm were Rmb0.93 and Rmb1.27 respectively, with a year-over-year decline of 15.5% and 23.0% [2] - The average price for TOPCon bifacial modules was Rmb0.68, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 20.9% [2] Price Changes - The report indicates that solar-grade EVA resin prices decreased by 11.3% year-over-year, while POE resin prices remained stable [2][5] - The price of solar films showed a year-over-year decline of 15.0% for transparent EVA film and 27.3% for POE film [2] Company Ratings - CGN Power Co., Ltd is rated Overweight with a price of HK$2.73 as of June 18, 2025 [59] - China Gas Holdings is rated Equal-weight with a price of HK$7.60 [59] - LONGi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd is rated Overweight with a price of Rmb14.59 [59]