虽然当下"反内卷"和十年前供给侧改革（2015-2017 年）存在宏观 背景、行业侧重、政策意图等诸多维度的差异，但是执行过程均会映射 到银行信贷管理上，从而影响信贷增速以及资产质量。我们因此分析供 给侧改革这一大型历史实验对信贷影响的有限数据，获取拼图，此为锚 定，调整差异，以期分析当下反内卷的信贷后果。 主要结论如下： 投资建议：建议关注厦门银行、重庆银行、渝农商行、上海银行、沪农 商行等，以及国有大行。 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期，信用风险恶化、监管政策改变等。 [Table_PicQuote] 历史收益率曲线 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 2025/4 银行 沪深300 | [Table_Trend] 涨跌幅（%） | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | 1% | 10% | 31% | | 相对收益 | -7% | 1% | 14% | | [Table_Market] 行业数据 | | | --- | --- | | 成分股数量（只） | 42 | | 总市值（ ...

July 23, 2025 04:41 PM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific Can China's Anti-Involution Drive Deliver? China's anti-involution supply-side reform is more complex and less potent than the last. Real change will require a rewiring of local incentives, fiscal redistribution, and a pivot toward demand that the current system still resists. We provide the signposts for what real progress would look like. 1. Policy signals are louder than ever With ongoing news flow, China's anti-involution campaign remains on top of ...

July 21, 2025 04:41 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific The Viewpoint: China: Anti- Involution – The Antidote to Deflation? Policy efforts to tackle the excess capacity challenge may intensify in the coming months, given a strong policy intent. However, addressing supply factors alone may not be sufficient to address the deflation challenge – demand conditions are more important, in our view. Key Takeaways In this report, we discuss the origins of and solutions to China's deflation challenge, including our ...

V i e w p o i n t | 17 Jul 2025 21:00:27 ET │ 39 pages China Multi-Asset Supply-Side Reform 2.0 Unfolding – China's War on Price Wars CITI'S TAKE The resilience of China's manufacturing FAI despite property-market weakness has been a bright spot in the economy. As manufacturing supply-chain capacity expands and property demand remains soft, prices suffer, with PPI struggling in negative territory. Rising US tariffs on China goods could further complicate the problem. China equities view: We believe authorit ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [7][9]. Core Insights - The insurance sector has shown strong performance over the past two years, driven by anti-involution, improved business quality, and market beta [9]. - Anti-involution measures are expected to continue benefiting both life and property & casualty (P&C) insurers, enhancing long-term profitability and balance sheet strength [3][9]. - Life insurers face risks related to interest rate spread loss, which has pressured valuations down to approximately 0.5x price-to-book (P/B) by early 2024 [4]. - P&C insurers are expected to benefit from eased competition in both auto and non-auto lines, potentially expanding underwriting margins [9]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The anti-involution measures for life insurers include cutting commissions and expenses across all channels, reducing pricing interest rates from 3.5% to an estimated 2-2.25%, and introducing a floating pricing interest rate mechanism [4]. - The introduction of a long-term evaluation mechanism on insurers' investment and efficiency is also part of the regulatory changes [4]. Property & Casualty Insurance - A restricted expense policy for P&C insurers has been in place since 2018 and was further strengthened in 2023 and 2024, with regulations expanding to non-auto lines in July 2025 [5]. Company Ratings - AIA Group Ltd: Overweight [61] - Ping An Insurance Group Co of China Ltd: Overweight [61] - China Life Insurance Co Ltd: Equal-weight [61] - China Pacific Insurance Group Co Ltd: Overweight [61] - PICC Group: Overweight [61] - ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co Ltd: Overweight [61]

Specialist Sales APAC Specialist Sales 08 July 2025 J P M O R G A N JPM | CHINA STRATEGY - China's next policy pivot Matthew See +852 2800 8889 matthew.see@jpmorgan.com China strategist Wendy Liu (link) has published an excellent note discussing one of China's more interesting new themes - the pivot to an "anti-involution" policy. If the Sept-24 policy pivot was all about supporting growth, this pivot is about improving growth quality. What policy? Anti involution is the new buzz word to describe China's po ...

July 10, 2025 06:18 PM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific Supply-Side Reform Returns... But This Time It's More Complicated China's capacity consolidation campaign may be returning – but we see this as new wine in an old bottle. The industrial landscape and macro environment are fundamentally more difficult than in 2015-18, meaning implementation will likely be slower. We maintain a persistent deflation baseline into 2026. 1. Introduction: "anti-involution" returns In recent years, the concept of "involution" ...

China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific A-Share Sentiment Improves with Anti-involution Message Sentiment improved with the government's clearer message on anti-involution, aimed at reining in the escalation of excess competition and potential overcapacity. We still expect near- term volatility to rise and range-bound index moves in the offshore market. We prefer A-shares over offshore for now. A-share investor sentiment improved vs. previous cycle: Weighted MSASI and simple MSASI improved 7ppt and 8ppt, to 78 ...

ab 3 July 2025 Global Research First Read We think investors may have overly priced in potential price upside from anti-involution initiates, while overlooking the structural demand weakness and obstacles to industry consolidation. We maintain our cautious view on the China cement sector. Equities China Building Materials China Cement Sector Expert call takeaway: "lie flat" no good for long- term consolidation No new policy We hosted a call with Digital Cement analyst, Ms. Xiaoliang Wang, to dive into the t ...