Crypto advocates say Bitcoin’s price slide is just a temporary blip in an otherwise upward trajectory. Bitcoin prices continued on a modest upward trajectory on February 8, rising by around 3% day-on-day to just about $71,000 at the time of writing. But this followed a sharp drop on February 6, which saw prices tumble close to the $60,000 mark. “Every time Bitcoin drops by 10%, the haters jump in, crowing that it’s just a digital pet rock with no value,” the hedge fund manager and founder of the Deep Kn ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, dropping to nearly $60,000 before recovering to over $70,000, trading at approximately $69,000 by Saturday morning [1] - Major digital tokens, particularly privacy coins, faced substantial losses following a market selloff [1] Major Losers - Monero, a privacy coin, fell nearly 31% over the week, recently priced at $325 after a slight recovery [2] - World Liberty Financial, backed by President Trump, also lost over 31% of its value, trading just above $0.10 [2] - Dash and Zcash, once favored privacy coins, saw declines of 19% and 22% respectively, with Zcash still up nearly 650% year-over-year [4] Other Affected Altcoins - The memecoin Official Trump (TRUMP) dropped 23% this week, trading at $3.39 [5] - Solana, a competitor to Ethereum, experienced the largest decline among major cryptocurrencies, down over 24% and trading at just over $86 [6] - Ethereum also suffered, down nearly 22% and trading at approximately $2,051 [6] Market Dynamics - The crypto market faced turmoil due to the liquidation of billions in leveraged bets and investor concerns over Trump's Federal Reserve chair nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his inflation hawkishness [7] - The volatility was not limited to cryptocurrencies, as precious metals and stocks also experienced increased fluctuations [7] Recent Market Movements - Bitcoin saw a slight increase of nearly 1% over the past 24 hours, trading at $69,122 [8] - Ethereum rose by 4% in the same timeframe, reaching $2,051 [8]

Bitcoin Market Dynamics - The 1-year+ holding wave of Bitcoin indicates that long-term holders are distributing their coins, consistent with historical patterns observed in post-halving years [1] - Investor expectations significantly drive Bitcoin's value, making its price highly reflexive and reinforcing the four-year cycle pattern, which has historically led to price peaks in Q4 of post-halving years [3][4] - The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional investment is changing the demand structure, providing a more stable bid for Bitcoin compared to retail-driven flows [5] 2026 Market Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests that while it may not resemble a traditional bear market, heightened volatility and range-bound trading are expected due to structural support from institutional capital [8] - The four-year cycle expectation continues to influence market timing and sentiment, despite the evolving market conditions [8] Ethereum's Evolution - Ethereum has solidified its position as a dominant platform for decentralized finance and tokenization, but its monetary narrative as "Ultra-Sound Money" has weakened due to reduced transaction fees and inflationary supply dynamics [10][12] - The divergence between Ethereum's strength as a network and ETH's performance as an asset raises questions about its current narrative, with two emerging perspectives: "Digital Oil" and "Yield-bearing productive asset" [13][17] Layer-1 Blockchain Competition - The Layer 1 blockchain market has become increasingly competitive, with new entrants optimizing for compliance and performance, while Ethereum maintains advantages in decentralization and developer ecosystem [18][19] - The economic value of Layer 1 blockspace is trending toward its marginal cost of operation, reflecting a highly competitive environment [20][25] Privacy Coins Resurgence - Privacy coins like Zcash and Monero have seen a resurgence, driven by ongoing demand for privacy amid increasing regulatory scrutiny in the crypto space [26][30] - Zcash is positioned favorably due to its opt-in privacy model and compatibility with regulatory requirements, unlike Monero, which faces greater scrutiny [28][30] Perpetual DEX Growth - The Perp DEX sector has experienced significant growth, with weekly volumes increasing from $81 billion in 2024 to $314.7 billion in 2025, attracting institutional interest [36] - Despite rapid expansion, the capital base of Perp DEXs remains shallow, with a leverage ratio of approximately 2.0x, indicating limited risk absorption capacity [37] Prediction Markets Development - Prediction markets have transitioned from fringe experiments to significant components of financial infrastructure, with platforms like Polymarket demonstrating superior accuracy compared to traditional polling methods [48][49] - The sector is expected to mature further in 2026, with increasing institutional interest and the development of solutions to address existing structural challenges [52]

Core Insights - Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) has experienced a significant decline of 25.6% over the past week after reaching a new all-time high, indicating investor fear amid tightening regulations in the cryptocurrency sector [1][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Monero's price is primarily linked to the technical fundamentals affecting most crypto assets, particularly the impact of leveraged trading and liquidation activity [5] - Over $2 million in long bets on Monero were liquidated in a single day, with additional millions liquidated throughout the week, leading to a significant reduction in investor accounts [6] - The reduction in open interest suggests a shrinking investor base for Monero, indicating potential challenges for future price recovery [7] Group 2: Performance Context - Monero has been identified as the worst-performing cryptocurrency among the top 15 over the past week, following its peak performance earlier in the week [8]

Core Insights - The expectation of regulation is fundamental for institutional finance, as projects unable to navigate regulatory environments will struggle to attract significant capital [1] - XRP has received regulatory approval to operate in a key financial zone, contrasting with privacy coins like Zcash and Monero, which face regulatory challenges [2] Regulatory Access - XRP and its underlying technology, the XRP Ledger (XRPL), are being developed by Ripple to facilitate international payments and transactions, with a focus on gaining regulatory approval to enhance investment opportunities [4] - Dubai, particularly the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC), has recognized XRP as an approved crypto token for licensed businesses, marking a significant regulatory milestone [5] - The approval of RLUSD, a stablecoin on the XRPL, as one of three stablecoins permitted in the DIFC, positions XRP to attract substantial capital, potentially driving up its price [6]

Core Insights - Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) is being considered by some investors as a potential candidate to become the next Bitcoin due to its unique feature of providing on-chain privacy by default [1][2] Group 1: Comparison with Bitcoin - Bitcoin's value is derived from its fixed supply of 21 million coins and a clear investment thesis based on scarcity, which makes it easier for holders to understand its supply policy [4] - Monero's supply policy is more complex, transitioning to tail emissions with permanent block rewards that began in 2022, leading to a constant but small dilution of value over time [5] - The annual dilution rate for Monero is approximately 1%, which complicates its supply and demand dynamics compared to Bitcoin, which does not require new demand to absorb ongoing issuance [6] Group 2: Current Status and Challenges - Monero is currently popular as a privacy coin but faces growth challenges that Bitcoin does not encounter [7]

Core Insights - Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) has experienced a significant price increase, rising by 19% on January 12 and an additional gain on January 13, totaling a 44% increase over five days, although it later surrendered some gains [2] - Despite the price surge, there is no clear catalyst for this increase, such as a major protocol upgrade or favorable regulatory news, leading to uncertainty about the reasons behind the price movement [4][6] - The fundamental issues surrounding Monero, particularly its privacy features, continue to pose challenges for its long-term viability, as financial regulators view privacy technology as a potential threat to oversight [6][7] Investment Thesis - Monero's design allows for private transactions by default, which is appealing but also complicates its investability due to regulatory scrutiny [5] - The lack of new developments or changes in the regulatory landscape means that the asset's valuation does not have a solid basis for further increases [5][6] - The ongoing skepticism from regulators suggests that Monero will remain on the fringes of the crypto-financial system, limiting its potential for mainstream adoption [6][9]

Core Insights - Privacy coins have experienced significant price increases, with Monero reaching nearly $798 before settling under $650, marking a 42% rise in the past week [1] - Dash has surged over 135% to $89, becoming the best-performing digital asset this week, although it remains below its all-time high [2] - Zcash has seen a resurgence, with a 670% increase over the past year, driven by endorsements from notable figures in the crypto space [4] Market Dynamics - The rally of privacy coins is partly attributed to growing privacy concerns among investors, as highlighted by influential figures like Naval Ravikant and Arthur Hayes [3][4] - Regulatory scrutiny on digital assets, particularly stablecoins, has led to increased interest in privacy coins, as they offer anonymity that public blockchains do not [5][6] - The rise of privacy coins may be a reaction to centralized control in crypto markets, which contradicts the original intent of cryptocurrencies [6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current surge in privacy coins may be nearing its peak, with indicators such as Zcash's open interest declining since its November 15 peak [7] - There is speculation that the current narrative surrounding privacy coins could be a temporary trend, similar to previous market phenomena [7]

At the same time, producer prices and retail sales are pointing to steady but not overheating demand, which, combined with cooling inflation, supports equities and crypto while strengthening the narrative that the U.S. is in a slow‑growth, disinflationary but not outright recessionary environment.Core U.S. inflation for December came in slightly softer than expected, with core CPI around 2.6% year‑on‑year versus forecasts closer to 2.7–2.8%, easing fears of a renewed price spike and giving markets more conf ...

Core Viewpoint - Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) has seen a price increase of over 100% in the past three months, leading to a high risk of investors experiencing FOMO [1] Group 1: Bull Case for Monero - Monero is a privacy coin that conceals transaction details by default, unlike most cryptocurrencies that use public ledgers [3] - The technology behind Monero includes ring signatures and stealth addresses, making it difficult to trace transactions back to specific wallets [4] - The demand for privacy in transactions is expected to persist, making Monero an appealing option for users concerned about increasing financial surveillance [5] - Owning a significant amount of Monero is necessary to fully utilize its privacy features, suggesting a potential investment of $1,000 could be justified [6] Group 2: Reasons to Exercise Caution - Despite Monero's technological advantages and rising price, financial regulators remain opposed to its privacy features, complicating access through mainstream exchanges [9]