Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) is positioned as a more favorable investment compared to Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) due to its robust liquidity, sustainable dividend, and improving financial outlook, while ABR faces challenges with weak liquidity and a recent dividend cut [1][21]. Group 1: Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - NLY focuses on enhancing liquidity and reducing leverage, with total assets available for financing amounting to $7.4 billion, including $4.7 billion in unencumbered Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [2][10]. - The company has a monthly dividend yield of 13.3% and a payout ratio of 99%, having increased its dividend only once in the past five years [3][10]. - NLY's investment strategy includes traditional Agency MBSs for downside protection and investments in non-agency and credit-focused asset classes to enhance returns [4]. - As of March 31, 2025, NLY's investment portfolio totaled $89.5 billion, and the company is acquiring newly originated mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) to strengthen its position [5]. - With declining mortgage rates, NLY is expected to see improvements in book value and net interest spread, positively impacting its financials [6]. - NLY shares have appreciated by 23.4% this year, while trading at a forward P/E of 7.14X, lower than its five-year median of 7.22X, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to the industry average [9][13][15]. Group 2: Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) - ABR primarily focuses on originating and servicing loans for multi-family, single-family, and commercial real estate assets, benefiting from improved housing affordability due to lower mortgage rates [7]. - The current dividend yield for ABR is 10.15%, with a payout ratio of 92%, but the company reduced its dividend by 30.3% to 30 cents per share in May 2025 due to weak liquidity [8][10]. - As of June 30, 2025, ABR had cash and cash equivalents of $504 million against long-term debt of $5.1 billion, raising concerns about its liquidity and capital distribution sustainability [8]. - ABR shares have declined by 6.6% this year, and it is trading at a forward P/E of 9.78X, which is higher than its five-year median of 8.76X, indicating a premium valuation [9][13][15]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ABR indicates year-over-year sales declines of 17.6% for 2025 and a drop of 36.8% in earnings for the same year, with EPS estimates moving downward over the past 60 days [16][20].

Financial Performance - Earnings available for distribution was $0.73 per average common share for Q2 2025[12] - The book value per common share was $18.45[12] - The economic return was 0.7% for Q2 2025 and 3.7% for the first half of 2025[12] Portfolio Composition and Strategy - The total portfolio was $89.5 billion, with $79.5 billion in Agency MBS, representing 89% of total assets and 62% of dedicated capital[12] - The Residential Credit portfolio remained relatively unchanged at $6.6 billion[12] - The MSR portfolio remained unchanged at $3.3 billion in market value, representing 19% of dedicated capital[12] Financing and Liquidity - Economic leverage was 5.8x, up from 5.7x in Q1 2025[12] - Total assets available for financing were $7.4 billion, including $4.7 billion of cash and unencumbered Agency MBS[12] Residential Credit Business - 15 residential whole loan securitizations totaling $7.6 billion in proceeds were priced year-to-date in 2025[12]

Core Insights - Cadence Bank reported strong operating performance for Q2 2025, driven by organic balance sheet growth and recent acquisitions, including First Chatham and Industry Bancshares [3][15][24][25] Financial Performance - Net income available to common shareholders for Q2 2025 was $129.9 million, or $0.69 per diluted common share, compared to $135.1 million, or $0.73 per diluted common share in Q2 2024 [4][15] - Adjusted net income for Q2 2025 was $137.5 million, or $0.73 per diluted common share, up from $127.9 million, or $0.69 per diluted common share in Q2 2024 [4][15] - Return on average assets was 1.09% for Q2 2025, down from 1.15% in both Q2 2024 and Q1 2025 [5][38] - Adjusted return on average assets was 1.14% for Q2 2025, compared to 1.09% in Q2 2024 [5][38] Revenue and Expenses - Net interest revenue for Q2 2025 was $378.1 million, an increase from $356.3 million in Q2 2024 [6][15] - Noninterest revenue was $98.2 million for Q2 2025, down from $100.7 million in Q2 2024 [16][15] - Noninterest expense for Q2 2025 was $272.9 million, compared to $256.7 million in Q2 2024 [20][15] Balance Sheet Highlights - Total assets increased to $50.4 billion as of June 30, 2025, up from $47.7 billion a year earlier [35][15] - Loans and leases net of unearned income rose to $35.5 billion, reflecting a net organic loan growth of $1.1 billion, or 12.6% annualized [9][15] - Total deposits were $40.5 billion as of June 30, 2025, a slight increase from $40.3 billion at the end of Q1 2025 [10][15] Credit Quality - Net charge-offs for Q2 2025 were $21.2 million, or 0.24% of average net loans and leases, compared to $22.6 million, or 0.28% in Q2 2024 [12][15] - The allowance for credit losses was $474.7 million, or 1.34% of total loans and leases, compared to 1.41% a year earlier [12][15] Capital Management - Total shareholders' equity was $5.9 billion at June 30, 2025, up from $5.3 billion a year earlier [22][15] - Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 12.2% as of June 30, 2025 [22][15] Strategic Transactions - The acquisition of First Chatham on May 1, 2025, added approximately $604 million in assets [15][24] - The acquisition of Industry Bancshares on July 1, 2025, added approximately $4.1 billion in assets [15][25]

Financial Performance - Net income for 2Q25 was $136 million, including an $82 million non-recurring tax benefit, resulting in diluted EPS of $2.54[7, 8] - The company achieved an annualized operating ROE of 13% and a book value per share of $78.04[7] - Total loan acquisitions and originations reached $379 billion, with correspondent lock volume at $287 billion, broker direct lock volume at $72 billion, and consumer direct lock volume at $38 billion[7] Segment Results - The production segment reported a pretax income of $58 million, while the servicing segment's pretax income, excluding valuation-related items, was $144 million[7] - MSR fair value changes and hedging resulted in a $(93) million impact, with a corresponding $(130) impact to diluted EPS[7] Strategic Initiatives and Market Position - The company aims to deliver mid-to-high teens operating returns on equity, expecting servicing to provide a strong base level of operating earnings[10, 12] - Pennymac is the outright leader in correspondent lending with $150 billion UPB of annual production capacity and 771 active clients across the US[19, 22] - The company is rapidly growing as a wholesale lender, holding the 3 market position[24, 26] Artificial Intelligence - Pennymac is building momentum in the deployment of artificial intelligence, with 35+ AI tools and applications projected to generate approximately $25 million annually in economic benefit[38, 41] - The company's vision for AI includes fully automated loan processing and self-service origination and servicing[46, 50] Servicing Portfolio - The total servicing portfolio UPB reached $700 billion as of June 30, 2025[7]

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) is expected to report year-over-year growth in earnings and net interest income (NII) for the second quarter of 2025, with results anticipated on July 23, after market close [1][10]. Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, Annaly posted earnings available for distribution per share of 72 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate, supported by improvements in the average yield on interest-earning assets [2]. - The consensus estimate for second-quarter NII is projected at $410.5 million, indicating a significant increase from the year-ago quarter's reported NII of $53.6 million [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings remains unchanged at 71 cents, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 4.4% [11]. Market Conditions - Despite interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, mortgage rates remained stable in the mid-to-upper 6% range, leading to growth in refinancing activities and origination volumes [4]. - The primary-secondary spread averaged 1.06% in the second quarter of 2025, slightly lower than the first quarter's average of 1.12% [6]. Asset Management - A significant portion of NLY's mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings is expected to have experienced elevated levels of constant prepayment rates, positively impacting net premium amortization and supporting growth in interest income and average asset yield [5][10]. - The net servicing income consensus estimate of $121 million suggests a year-over-year increase of 13% [8]. Earnings Surprise History - Annaly has a strong earnings surprise history, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.60% [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model indicates that an earnings beat is unlikely for NLY this time, as it lacks the necessary combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank higher than 3 [9].

Financial Performance - Annaly increased the dividend to $0.70 per share, highlighting the strong performance of its diversified housing finance portfolio[10] - Earnings available for distribution were $0.72 per average common share for the quarter[11] - The book value per common share was $19.02[11] - The company's economic return for the first quarter was 3.0%[11] Portfolio Composition and Performance - The total portfolio was $84.9 billion, including $75.0 billion in highly liquid Agency MBS, representing 88% of total assets and 61% of dedicated capital[11] - The Agency portfolio increased by 6% during the quarter, focusing on allocating capital into intermediate coupon TBA securities[11] - The Residential Credit portfolio decreased 5% to $6.6 billion, driven by securitization and sales of third-party securities[11] - The MSR portfolio remained relatively unchanged at $3.3 billion in market value, representing 21% of dedicated capital[11] Financing and Liquidity - Economic leverage was 5.7x, up from 5.5x in the fourth quarter[11] - Total assets available for financing were $7.5 billion, including cash and unencumbered Agency MBS of $4.7 billion[11] - The average GAAP cost of interest-bearing liabilities was 4.77%, down 19 basis points quarter-over-quarter, while the average economic cost of interest-bearing liabilities was 3.88%, up 9 basis points quarter-over-quarter[11]