Core Insights - The Mosaic Company (MOS) reported a loss of $1.64 per share for Q4 2025, a significant decline from earnings of 53 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were 22 cents, down from 45 cents a year ago, and below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 48 cents [1] - Net sales increased nearly 6% year over year to $2,973.7 million, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,206.8 million [1] Segment Highlights - Potash segment net sales were $0.7 billion, up approximately 17% year over year, with sales volume flat at 2.2 million tons, missing the estimate of 2.6 million tons [2] - The gross margin for the Potash segment rose to $115 per ton from $55 per ton year over year, while the average MOP selling price increased to $264 per ton from $199 per ton [2] - Phosphate division net sales were $1 billion, down from $1.2 billion a year ago, with sales volume decreasing to 1.3 million tons from 1.6 million tons, also missing the estimate of 1.9 million tons [3] - The gross margin in the Phosphate segment fell to $17 per ton from $85 per ton, while the average DAP selling price rose to $686 per ton from $593 per ton [3] - Mosaic Fertilizantes segment net sales were $1.1 billion, flat year over year, with sales volume down to 2.1 million tons from 2.2 million tons, missing the estimate of 3.2 million tons [4] - The gross margin in the Fertilizantes segment decreased to $10 per ton from $46 per ton in the prior-year quarter [4] Financials - At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $276.6 million, a 1.4% increase from the prior year [5] - Long-term debt rose to $4,250.9 million, up around 28% year over year [5] - Net cash used in operating activities was $56.1 million in the reported quarter [5] Outlook - For Q1 2026, Mosaic expects potash sales volumes between 2 million tons and 2.2 million tons, with realized mine gate MOP prices projected at $255-$275 per ton [6] - Phosphate sales volumes are forecasted to be 1.7-1.9 million tons, with DAP prices expected in the range of $640-$670 per ton [6] - Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes for Q1 2026 are projected to be below the prior-year quarter [6] - For the full year 2026, phosphate production volumes are expected to be at or above 7 million tons, while potash production is projected at roughly 9 million tons [7] Price Performance - Mosaic's shares have gained 10.2% over the past year, compared to a 19.7% rise in the Zacks Fertilizers industry [10]

Core Insights - Mosaic reported revenue of $2.97 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, reflecting a 5.6% increase year-over-year, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.21 billion by 7.27% [1] - The company's EPS was $0.22, down from $0.45 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of -53.98% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.48 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Mosaic's shares returned +1.4% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite decreased by -1% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market [3] Sales Volume and Pricing - Total finished product sales volume for Mosaic Fertilizantes was 2,075 KTon, below the average estimate of 2,587.03 KTon [4] - The average finished product selling price for potash was $275.00, exceeding the estimated $252.74 [4] - Phosphate sales volumes were reported at 1,330 KTon, lower than the estimated 1,583.51 KTon [4] - Potash sales volumes were 2,233 KTon, slightly below the average estimate of 2,348.16 KTon [4] - The average finished product selling price for phosphates was $656.00, lower than the estimated $711.44 [4] Net Sales Performance - Net sales for phosphates were $1.02 billion, significantly below the average estimate of $1.27 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of -12.9% [4] - Net sales for Mosaic Fertilizantes reached $1.15 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.21 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +5.3% [4] - Net sales for potash were reported at $686 million, closely matching the average estimate of $686.55 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +23.2% [4]

Third Quarter 2025 Performance - Consolidated Revenues reached $3452 million[6] - Net Income was $340 million[6] - Operating Earnings totaled $411 million[6] - Adjusted EBITDA was $806 million[6] Segment Results - **Phosphate:** Net Revenues were $1290 million, Adjusted EBITDA was $280 million, and Operating Earnings were $102 million[6] - **Potash:** Net Revenues were $695 million, Adjusted EBITDA was $329 million, and Operating Earnings were $229 million[6] - **Mosaic Fertilizantes:** Net Revenues were $1592 million, Adjusted EBITDA was $241 million, and Operating Earnings were $96 million[6] Phosphate Division - Phosphate division realized stripping margin in excess of $500 per tonne[9] - Phosphate division Q3 idle and turnaround expenses declined from $84 million in Q2 to $42 million[9] - Phosphate division trailing 3-month period ending October reached approximately 18 million tonnes[9] Potash Division - Potash division Q3 MOP cash cost of production declined by 4% from $74 to $71 per tonne[12] - Potash division Q3 idle and turnaround declined to $16M from $34M in the second quarter[12] Mosaic Fertilizantes Division - Mosaic Fertilizantes division Adjusted EBITDA of $241M, up 190% compared to the prior year[15] - Mosaic Fertilizantes division recovered $27M in Q3 against bad debt in prior quarter[15]

Financial Performance - Consolidated revenues reached $3,006 million[6], with an adjusted EBITDA of $566 million[6] - Net income was $411 million[6] Segment Results - Phosphate segment net revenues were $1,173 million[6], with an adjusted EBITDA of $217 million[6], but an operating loss of $8 million[6] - Potash segment net revenues were $711 million[6], with operating earnings of $194 million[6] and an adjusted EBITDA of $278 million[6] - Mosaic Fertilizantes segment net revenues were $1,175 million[6], with operating earnings of $109 million[6] and an adjusted EBITDA of $159 million[6] Production and Sales Volumes - Phosphate sales and production volumes were both 1.5 million tonnes[8] - Potash sales volume was 2.3 million tonnes[11] and production volume was 2.1 million tonnes[11] - Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes were 2.2 million tonnes[14], including 1.1 million tonnes of produced products[14] Guidance and Targets - Phosphate Q3 sales volume is expected to be in the range of 1.8 to 2.0 million tonnes[19] - Potash 2025 production volume guidance raised to 9.3 to 9.5 million tonnes[19] - Mosaic Fertilizantes Q3 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be above $200 million[15, 19] Cost Reduction and Capital Allocation - The company achieved $150 million in cost reductions and expanded the target to $250 million by the end of 2026[19, 31] - Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 are projected to be $1.2 to $1.3 billion[45] Market Dynamics - North America and Brazil each represent less than 15% of global phosphate demand and less than 20% of global potash demand[53]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Mosaic (MOS) will report quarterly earnings of $0.39 per share, reflecting a 40% decline year over year, with revenues expected to reach $2.67 billion, a decrease of 0.5% from the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.2% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [1][2] Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- Phosphates' at $1.15 billion, down 1.7% year over year [4] - 'Net Sales- Mosaic Fertilizantes' is projected to reach $1.02 billion, up 15.4% from the previous year [4] - 'Net Sales- Potash' is expected to be $516.70 million, reflecting a 19.6% decline year over year [4] Sales Volumes - 'Phosphates - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product' is estimated at 1,591.66 KTon, compared to 1,644 KTon a year ago [5] - 'Potash - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product' is projected to be 2,154.66 KTon, slightly down from 2,163 KTon last year [6] - 'Mosaic Fertilizantes - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product' is expected to reach 1,938.02 KTon, up from 1,715 KTon year over year [6] Cost Estimates - 'Phosphates - Realized costs - Blended rock' is projected at $79.75 per Ton, down from $81 per Ton last year [7] - 'Phosphates - Realized costs - Sulfur' is expected to be $156.99 per Ton, compared to $142 per Ton in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Mosaic Fertilizantes - Average finished product selling price (destination)' is estimated at $503.72, down from $517 year over year [8] Price Expectations - 'Phosphates - Average finished product selling price (destination)' is projected at $649.44, compared to $677 in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Mosaic have returned +30.1%, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change [9]

The Mosaic Company Fourth Quarter 2024 Results February 27, 2025 2 Fourth Quarter 2024 Performance | CONSOLIDATED | | | OPERATING | | | NET | | ADJUSTED (1) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | REVENUES | | | EARNINGS | | | INCOME | | EBITDA | | | $2,816M | | | $100M | | | $169M | | $594M | | | PHOSPHATE | | | | | POTASH | | | MOSAIC FERTILIZANTES | | | Net | Operating | Adjusted(1) | | Net | Operating | Adjusted(1) | Net Revenues | Operating Earnings | Adjusted(1) EBITDA | | ...