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研报 | 受中国抢装潮带动,预估2Q25光伏产业链价格将集体上涨
TrendForce集邦· 2025-03-27 05:49
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of Chinese policy on the photovoltaic industry, indicating a surge in demand and potential price increases in the supply chain due to a "rush to install" distributed photovoltaic projects before the new pricing regulations take effect in May 2025 [1][4]. Price Trends - The prices of various components in the photovoltaic supply chain are expected to rise, with specific increases noted for polysilicon and N-type silicon wafers [2]. - Polysilicon price is projected to increase from CNY 41.0/kg to CNY 42.0/kg, a rise of 2.44% [2]. - N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafer is expected to see a price increase of 3.57%, from CNY 1.40 to CNY 1.45 per piece [2]. Demand Dynamics - The rush to install distributed photovoltaic projects is expected to peak in the second quarter, driven by recent policy changes that eliminate fixed purchase prices for projects connected to the grid after May 31 [4][5]. - The demand for silicon wafers remains optimistic due to the rush in distributed projects and recovering demand in other regional markets [5][6]. Supply Chain Considerations - The supply of polysilicon is currently constrained due to low operating rates among manufacturers, with expectations that prices could reach CNY 45/kg in the near term [4]. - The article notes that while the second quarter may see stable supply-demand dynamics, a decline in demand is anticipated in the third quarter, potentially leading to price drops [5]. Component Pricing - The article indicates that the price of components, particularly for TOPCon bifacial modules, has been supported by strong demand, with current prices reaching CNY 0.73/W [6]. - However, as the rush to install projects concludes, a return to an average price of CNY 0.7/W is expected in the third quarter due to increased market competition [6].