Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Non-ferrous and new energy metals, specifically copper, tin, aluminum, zinc, lithium, and nickel markets Key Points and Arguments Copper and Tin Market Dynamics - **Market Shift**: The driving force behind copper and tin prices has shifted from fundamentals to market sentiment, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased risk aversion [1][2] - **Price Fluctuations**: In Q1 2026, copper prices fluctuated between 88,000 and 91,000 CNY, while tin prices saw significant volatility, with a drop of 20% due to market sentiment [2][3] - **Supply Concerns**: The processing fee for copper concentrate (TC) has dropped to -70 USD/ton, impacting smelter profits and potentially slowing refined copper supply growth in Q2 due to maintenance [1][4] Aluminum Market Insights - **Supply Shortages**: The aluminum market is experiencing significant shortages, with a reduction of 550,000 tons in the Middle East. Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its peak at 45 million tons [1] - **Price Projections**: If geopolitical tensions escalate, aluminum prices may reach historical highs [1][15] Zinc Market Outlook - **Price Range**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate between 22,000 and 24,500 CNY, with a strong support level at 22,000 CNY due to tight supply conditions [1][26] - **Demand Weakness**: Domestic demand remains weak, particularly in the construction sector, which is affecting overall consumption [20][21] Lithium Market Trends - **Supply Surplus**: A surplus of over 100,000 tons of lithium is expected in 2026, driven by increased production from salt lakes and macroeconomic factors [1][31] - **Price Decline**: Prices may drop to around 120,000 CNY/ton due to increased supply and changing market dynamics [1][32] Nickel Market Analysis - **Inventory Levels**: Nickel inventories across the supply chain are at historically high levels, indicating a prolonged period of market clearing [1][33] - **Supply Disruptions**: Recent policy changes in Indonesia have reduced nickel mining quotas by 30%, impacting supply dynamics [1][34] Semiconductor and AI Impact - **Market Correlation**: The semiconductor market is experiencing structural issues, with strong growth in AI-related hardware but declining shipments in traditional sectors like laptops and smartphones [10] Investment Strategies - **Copper and Tin**: Investors are advised to monitor price corrections and consider options strategies for risk management, especially as prices may rebound after significant declines [7][11] - **Zinc**: The market is expected to experience a range-bound trading environment, with strategies leaning towards short positions during price spikes [26][27] Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are influencing market sentiment and commodity prices across various sectors [3][20] - **Macroeconomic Factors**: The potential for changes in U.S. monetary policy and inflation expectations are critical to future price movements in industrial metals [3][20][32] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of various metal markets and the implications for investors.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase, with slightly improved supply - demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances to copper prices. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and the adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is under pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mining and smelting ends. The smelting cost will support zinc prices. The demand is relatively stable, and there is a possibility of opening up the export space. The zinc price has limited room for further significant decline, and the main contract is supported around 23,000 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated, and the downstream consumption is gradually recovering. With the improvement of market risk preference, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long positions, and subsequent attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon price has a negative impact. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of trying long at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the minimum cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long after the price stabilizes and pay attention to position control and stop - loss [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices. The electrolytic aluminum price has strong anti - decline attributes, and the short - term core operating range is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The Indonesian policy, macro - expectations, and raw material contradictions support the price, but the slow inventory digestion restricts it. The nickel price is expected to oscillate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to operate in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [16]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw material shortages. The steel mill production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 14,800 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance expectations are repeated, the short - term marginal driving force of the fundamentals is weakened but still has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range, and the main contract is expected to be between 153,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In February, the electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%. The import volume was 15.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.95% [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, the refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.99%. The import volume was 0.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81.26% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The SMM 1 tin premium is 2,000 yuan/ton [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 510 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In February, the tin ore import was 17,144 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.91% [8]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.54%. The basis is 795 yuan/ton, up 10.42% from the previous day [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 8,352 yuan/ton, down 1.47% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in March was 32.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.66%. The Xinjiang industrial silicon production was 20.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.94% [10]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, down 1.91% from the previous day. The N - type material basis is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 22.22% from the previous day [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production in February was 7.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.61%. The import volume was 0.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 54.97% [12]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 100 yuan/ton [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The AL 2604 - 2605 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In March, the alumina production was 729.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.56%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 383.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.73% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, down 21.05% from the previous day [14]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 2,700 yuan/ton, up 3,280 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in February was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45%. The import volume was 23,394 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.63% [14]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Jiangxi Baotai network ADC12 - A00 spread is - 410 yuan/ton, down 24.24% from the previous day [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 35.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 20.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.99% [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 64.00% from the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in April was 190.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.07%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 37.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.84% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 163,000 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate basis is 5,800 yuan/ton, up 181.46% from the previous day [21]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 840 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. Fundamental Data - In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The demand was 111,503 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with a supply - demand dual - weak pattern. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations. [3] - The polysilicon price is expected to continue a weak oscillation. The weak industrial silicon price makes the cost support for polysilicon weak, and the demand expectation from the "rush to export" before April has not been realized, with high inventory and difficult demand transmission in the industry chain. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8480 yuan/ton and closed at 8355 yuan/ton, a change of (- 145) yuan/ton or (- 1.71)%. The position of the main contract 2605 was 201,800 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on March 30, 2026 was 22,313 lots, a change of 24 lots from the previous day. [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,200 (- 50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 price was 8,500 - 8,600 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,500 - 8,600 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. [1] - As of March 26, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 560,000 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous week. [1] - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,300 (0) yuan/ton. After the festival, the demand for downstream polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees, and most of the post - festival inquiries were exploratory. [1] Supply - demand and Cost - The supply side remained in a loose state, and the pattern of oversupply continued. The demand side was continuously sluggish, and the war between the US and Iran restricted the export logistics of industrial silicon. Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, and the cost support for industrial silicon is stable. [1][2] Strategy - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, conduct range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options. [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated and declined, opening at 36,760 yuan/ton and closing at 35,200 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.1% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 34,456 (34,584 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 165,316 lots. [3] - The spot price of polysilicon declined. The N - type material was 35.50 - 41.50 (- 0.75) yuan/kg, and the n - type granular silicon was 40.00 - 43.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 33.20, a change of - 3.49% month - on - month, the silicon wafer inventory was 26.98GW, a change of - 2.42% month - on - month, the weekly polysilicon output was 19,400.00 tons, a change of 1.00% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer output was 11.38GW, a change of - 3.40% week - on - week. [4] - In terms of silicon wafers, the domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.99 (0.00) yuan/piece, the N - type 210mm was 1.28 (- 0.02) yuan/piece, and the N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.04 (- 0.05) yuan/piece. [4] - In terms of battery cells, the high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the PERC210 battery cell was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the TopconM10 battery cell was about 0.38 (- 0.01) yuan/W; the Topcon G12 battery cell was 0.38 (- 0.01) yuan/W; the Topcon210RN battery cell was 0.39 (- 0.01) yuan/W. The HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm was 0.74 - 0.76 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.78 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] - Since the polysilicon price fell below the cost level of 40,000 yuan/ton, the market sentiment was pessimistic. The fundamental weakness and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on bulk commodities still existed. The spot market trading almost stagnated, the inventory reached a high level, the supply - demand game continued, the supply - side production cut pressure increased, and the downstream battery factories only maintained rigid - demand purchases and had a low acceptance of high - price goods. [5] Strategy - The polysilicon price is expected to continue a weak oscillation. In the short - term, conduct range operations, and the main contract is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short - term. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options. [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 31, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed weak oscillations. The main contract of industrial silicon 2605 closed at 8355 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.71%, and the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 202,000 lots. The main contract of polysilicon 2605 closed at 35,200 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.1%, and the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots [2]. - Industrial silicon is in a game between cost support and marginal inventory accumulation. After the increase in petroleum coke and electricity prices, the quotation center of spot - futures traders has risen significantly, and low - price goods in the market have disappeared. However, the overall market atmosphere is difficult to improve significantly, and it will operate in an oscillatory manner. Polysilicon is in a window period of policy implementation. Silicon material production is steadily increasing, the delivery of photovoltaic centralized projects has slowed down, and leading enterprises continue the dual - distribution strategy, so the industry inventory has the risk of increasing pressure. The market has not shown an obvious bottom - reaching signal and mainly follows the bottom - running logic [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8480 yuan/ton on March 30 to 8355 yuan/ton on March 31, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and varieties in different regions either decreased slightly or remained stable. The current lowest delivery price remained at 8800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 445 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon inventory increased in most places, with the social inventory increasing by 23,100 tons to 456,150 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 36,550 yuan/ton on March 30 to 35,200 yuan/ton on March 31, a decrease of 1350 yuan/ton. The spot prices of some varieties decreased, and the lowest delivery price dropped by 750 yuan/ton to 38,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium expanded to 3300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon inventory increased, with the social inventory increasing by 24,000 tons to 332,000 tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC, raw rubber, and 107 glue in the East China market remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1000 yuan/ton to 15,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industrial silicon industry inventory, the weekly industrial silicon inventory change, the weekly polysilicon inventory, and the weekly DMC inventory [21][22][24]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloys [27][29][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][6][10] Core Insights - The company has experienced lower-than-expected performance, with a reported loss of 950 million RMB in 2H25, which is a 69% year-on-year improvement but a 270% increase quarter-on-quarter [6] - The average selling price of polysilicon has decreased to approximately 40,500 RMB per ton, following a government halt on capacity storage plans, which previously led to price increases [6] - The target price has been revised down to 6.30 HKD from 8.62 HKD due to the decline in polysilicon prices, while maintaining a "Buy" rating as the stock is considered undervalued after recent price corrections [6][10] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 21,213 million RMB in 2024, 15,254 million RMB in 2025, and 17,188 million RMB in 2026E, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 31.0% and 28.1% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [5][12] - Net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 3,905 million RMB in 2024 to a profit of 1,038 million RMB by 2028 [5][12] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 1,948.56 million HKD, with a 52-week high of 9.01 HKD and a low of 4.11 HKD [4][10] Business Segment Performance - The polysilicon segment is projected to see sales volumes of 20.3 million tons in 2023, decreasing to 8.3 million tons in 2025, with an expected average selling price of 40,000 RMB per ton in 2026E [8] - The company’s gross margin for polysilicon is expected to remain negative, with projections indicating a gross loss of 1.2 million RMB per ton in 2026E [8] - Investment income is projected at 660 million RMB for 2025, primarily from the sale of power plants and investments in joint ventures [6][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][6][10] Core Insights - The company has experienced lower-than-expected performance, with a reported loss of 950 million RMB in 2H25, which is a 69% year-on-year improvement but a 270% increase quarter-on-quarter [6] - The average selling price of polysilicon has decreased to approximately 40,500 RMB per ton, following a government halt on capacity storage plans, which previously led to price increases [6] - The target price has been revised down to 6.30 HKD from 8.62 HKD due to the decline in polysilicon prices, while maintaining a "Buy" rating as the stock is considered undervalued after recent price corrections [6][10] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 21,213 million RMB in 2024, 15,254 million RMB in 2025, and 17,188 million RMB in 2026E, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 31.0% and 28.1% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [5][12] - Net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 3,905 million RMB in 2024 to a profit of 1,038 million RMB by 2028 [5][12] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 1,948.56 million HKD, with a 52-week high of 9.01 HKD and a low of 4.11 HKD [4][10] Polysilicon Business Insights - The forecast for polysilicon sales volume is projected at 20.3 million tons in 2023, decreasing to 8.3 million tons in 2025, and recovering to 12.0 million tons in 2026E [8] - The estimated average selling price for polysilicon is expected to be 43,000 RMB per ton in 2024 and 40,000 RMB per ton in 2025 [8] - The gross margin for the polysilicon segment is projected to be negative, with estimates of -30.8% in 2024 and -47.9% in 2025 [8] Market Context - The company operates in the renewable energy sector, specifically in polysilicon manufacturing, which has been affected by government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity [6][10] - The overall market sentiment has shifted due to the government's decision to halt capacity storage plans, leading to a decline in polysilicon prices and impacting the profitability of companies in this sector [6][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market should focus on market sentiment, and the polysilicon market is in a weak shock pattern [1][2] - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is -1, indicating a neutral view on industrial silicon and a bearish view on polysilicon [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2605's closing price was 8,355 yuan/ton, with a decline of 125 yuan from the previous trading day, 250 yuan from a week ago, and 40 yuan from a month ago; its trading volume was 172,049 lots, a decrease of 11,006 lots from the previous day, an increase of 25,941 lots from a week ago, and a decrease of 94,232 lots from a month ago; its open interest was 201,800 lots, a decrease of 18,817 lots from the previous day, 19,401 lots from a week ago, and 126,616 lots from a month ago. PS2605's closing price was 35,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,350 yuan from the previous day and 530 yuan from a week ago [2] - **Basis**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) was +795 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan from the previous day, 200 yuan from a week ago, and 40 yuan from a month ago [2] - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and a week ago, and a decrease of 150 yuan from a month ago; the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and a week ago, and a decrease of 100 yuan from a month ago; the price of polysilicon - N - type re - feed was 38,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan from the previous day, 4,000 yuan from a week ago, and 13,500 yuan from a month ago [2] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2,776.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan from the previous day, 710 yuan from a week ago, and 685 yuan from a month ago; the profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 5.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3 yuan from the previous day, 1.6 yuan from a week ago, and 13.0 yuan from a month ago [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 560,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from a week ago; the enterprise inventory of industrial silicon (sample enterprises) was 191,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from a week ago; the industry inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + enterprise inventory) was 751,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from a week ago; the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon futures was 112,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from a week ago; the manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 332,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from a week ago [2] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore was 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and a week ago; the price of Xinjiang washed coking coal was 1,475 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and a week ago; the price of Maoming petroleum coke was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and a week ago; the price of Yangtze petroleum coke was 1,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan from a week ago and 220 yuan from a month ago [2] Macro and Industry News - On March 30, TCL Zhonghuan announced that it planned to acquire 8.06% of the shares of Yidao New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (before capital increase) for 258 million yuan in cash. At the same time, it planned to invest 1 billion yuan in Yidao New Energy to obtain 55.56% of the shares after the capital increase. After the completion of the share transfer and capital increase, TCL Zhonghuan would obtain 59.14% of the shares of Yidao New Energy with 1.258 billion yuan and receive the voting rights entrusted by 7.2% of the shares, controlling a total of 66.34% of the shares. Yidao New Energy is engaged in the R & D, manufacturing, and sales of high - efficiency solar cells, photovoltaic modules, and systems, and its N - type module winning bid volume has ranked among the top in the country since 2023 [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase. The supply - side copper mine TC is at a record low, and the port inventory is seasonally low. Refined copper production is expected to remain high. Demand has recovered, but downstream procurement sentiment is still weak when prices rebound. Global visible inventories are starting to decline. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to long - term long - order layout opportunities, with the main contract focusing on the 97,000 - 98,000 pressure level [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mine end and the smelting end. The zinc mine TC in the first quarter of 2026 is weak. Although the smelting profit is under pressure, the smelting end has not seen large - scale production cuts due to high by - product profits. The demand side is relatively stable, and the processing industry's operating rate has continued to rise in the first quarter. If overseas prices strengthen, the zinc ingot export space may open again. Considering the low ratio of finished product inventory to raw material inventory in the processing industry, there is room for restocking. The domestic zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The zinc price is supported by smelting costs, and the downward space is limited. The main contract should pay attention to the support around 23,000 [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated. The processing fees of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased, and the cumulative import volume of tin ore from January to February has increased significantly. The JFX exchange trading volume in February is expected to stabilize Indonesia's export level. The downstream consumption of tin is gradually recovering, with some traditional consumption being slightly weak, and the photovoltaic demand has slightly improved. With the market risk preference restored, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long orders and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon prices has spread panic to the industrial silicon sector. The supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large. Low - price and loss - making situations will suppress the resumption of production in the southwest region. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - side fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to try long positions at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. Many enterprises have production increase expectations, which will open up the downward space for spot prices. The current spot price is approaching the unit cost and moving towards the cash cost. The market sentiment tends to trade for market - clearing. It is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and stop - loss settings [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a stage of relative over - capacity. The price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line in the long - term. The new low - cost capacity in Guangxi will be gradually released in the second quarter, which will put pressure on the spot price. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices in the short - term. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by the supply - side due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The LME aluminum inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic market demand has recovered. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April. The short - term core operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The nickel market has a complex situation. The Indonesian government plans to levy export taxes on nickel products, and the raw material supply is tight. The high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong, but the steel mills have a strong price - pressing attitude. The supply of refined nickel still has pressure. The overseas market is gently de - stocking, while the domestic market is still accumulating inventory. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. In the second quarter, the demand for casting aluminum alloy is seasonally weak, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The industry is in a weak - balance state. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and it follows the electrolytic aluminum price. It is necessary to track macro events and domestic tax policy changes [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is affected by macro and raw material news. The raw material supply is tight, and the high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong. The steel mills' production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The short - term price is expected to maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 14,800 [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fell significantly. The policy news from Zimbabwe has affected the market sentiment. The fundamental data of lithium carbonate remains resilient, with both supply and demand increasing. The upstream salt - factory supply is gradually increasing, and the demand is generally optimistic. The social inventory has started to accumulate. The short - term market may adjust, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 153,000 - 160,000 [21]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference is - 251 yuan/ton, with a significant decline [1]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.153 million tons, a decrease of 24.95% month - on - month [1]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The import copper concentrate index is - 68.85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.27% week - on - week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 0.5747 million tons, an increase of 12.25% week - on - week. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate is 83.17%, an increase of 1.66% week - on - week; the recycled copper rod operating rate is 5.83%, a decrease of 8.99% week - on - week [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory is 0.4031 million tons, a decrease of 13.81% week - on - week; the bonded area inventory is 0.0582 million tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the SHFE inventory is 0.3591 million tons, a decrease of 12.64% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import profit and loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.67 yuan compared with the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.0045 million tons, a decrease of 81.26% month - on - month; the export volume was 0.0039 million tons, an increase of 91.58% month - on - month [5]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The galvanizing operating rate is 58.88%, a decrease of 0.82% week - on - week; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate is 51.80%, an increase of 0.19% week - on - week; the zinc oxide operating rate is 55.50%, an increase of 0.14% week - on - week [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 0.2482 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.115 million tons, a decrease of 0.67% day - on - day [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The import profit and loss is - 6,623.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.90% [8]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, a decrease of 3.69% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month; the refined tin import volume was 2,168 tons, an increase of 96.91% month - on - month; the refined tin export volume was 1,216 tons, a decrease of 24.14% month - on - month [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHEF inventory is 8,400 tons, a decrease of 16.35% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,102 tons, a decrease of 17.08% week - on - week; the SHEF warehouse receipt is 6,775 tons, a decrease of 3.75% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis (based on SI5530) is 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.42% [10]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production is 329,900 tons, an increase of 19.66% month - on - month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 209,800 tons, an increase of 25.94% month - on - month; the Yunnan industrial silicon production is 14,800 tons, an increase of 10.86% month - on - month; the Sichuan industrial silicon production is 900 tons, an increase of DIV/0! month - on - month [10]. - **Inventory Data**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory is 33,200 tons, an increase of 0.61% week - on - week; the social inventory is 560,000 tons, an increase of 1.27% week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.91%. The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% [12]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer production is 11.38 GM, a decrease of 3.40% week - on - week; the multi - layer silicon production is 19,400 tons, an increase of 2.11% week - on - week [12]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month; the polysilicon import volume is 1,600 tons, an increase of 54.97% month - on - month; the polysilicon export volume is 2,200 tons, an increase of 20.51% month - on - month [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The polysilicon inventory is 332,000 tons, a decrease of 3.49% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory is 26.98 CM, a decrease of 2.42% month - on - month; the polysilicon warehouse receipt is 11,030 tons, an increase of 0.09% day - on - day [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 4,741 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.3 yuan compared with the previous value [13]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In March, the alumina production was 7.2974 million tons, an increase of 10.56% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8311 million tons, an increase of 10.73% month - on - month; the overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.5725 million tons, an increase of 8.46% month - on - month [13]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The alumina operating rate is 76.43%, a decrease of 0.27% week - on - week; the aluminum profile operating rate is 59.00%, an increase of 7.27% week - on - week; the aluminum cable operating rate is 66.00%, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 1.373 million tons, an increase of 2.69% week - on - week; the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory is 0.3215 million tons, a decrease of 5.86% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.417 million tons, a decrease of 0.45% day - on - day [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.05% [14]. - **Cost Data**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 113,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% month - on - month; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowon nickel is 141,713 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.34% month - on - month [14]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, an increase of 84.63% month - on - month [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE inventory is 64,479 tons, an increase of 1.28% week - on - week; the social inventory is 89,808 tons, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 281,526 tons, a decrease of 0.02% day - on - day [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change. The Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 - A00 price difference is - 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.24% [16]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 209,300 tons, a decrease of 30.99% month - on - month; the scrap aluminum production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 33.68% month - on - month [16]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate is 31.34%, a decrease of 41.87% week - on - week; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate is 44.73%, a decrease of 23.59% week - on - week [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 33,700 tons,

Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report from Guotai Junan Futures, focusing on green finance and new energy, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by the ore end [2][4] - Stainless steel: The steel price fluctuates due to the game between demand and cost [2][5] Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel main contract was 134,780, down 2,340; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 14,160, down 210. Other data such as trading volume, price differentials, and import profits are also provided [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore; Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala; the approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million and 270 million tons; Philippine miners expect the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore to double; there were incidents such as landslides in Indonesia and production scale reduction in Cuba [5][6][7] - **Inventory Tracking**: On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons; LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons. In the new energy and nickel - stainless steel sectors, inventory changes are also provided [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [12] 2. Lithium Carbonate Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Attention should be paid to the impact of news [14] Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: Data such as closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of 2605 and 2607 contracts, as well as prices of various lithium - related products are provided [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: Xinjiang Blue Diamond Lithium Energy Technology Co., Ltd. plans a lithium - salt production project; Zijin Liyuan's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project enters the trial production stage [17][18] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [18] 3. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment; Polysilicon: It is in a weak and volatile pattern [19][20] Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: Data on futures markets, price differentials, basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: TCL Zhonghuan plans to acquire and invest in Yidao New Energy [21] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1 [22]