March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed up +0.25 (+1.68%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +5.20 (+1.23%). Sugar prices settled sharply higher on Friday, with NY sugar posting a 2-week high and London sugar posting a 1-week high.  Friday's rally in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) to a 1-week high against the dollar has sparked some short covering in sugar futures.  The stronger real discourages export sales by Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Sugar prices ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed up +0.24 (+1.64%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +7.30 (+1.74%). Sugar prices settled higher on Wednesday as dollar weakness (DXY00) sparked some short-covering in sugar futures. More News from Barchart Sugar prices have retreated over the past week, falling to 3-week lows on Tuesday due to ramped-up production in India and Brazil.  Last Monday, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported that Indian sugar production fro ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices have retreated, with NY sugar reaching a 5-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar production forecasts in India and Brazil [2][4][5] Group 1: Sugar Production Estimates - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 18.8% year-on-year from the previous forecast of 30 MMT [2] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, increased its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for Brazil to 45 MMT, up from 44.5 MMT [3] - Datagro projected Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 to rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 MMT [4] Group 2: Sugar Price Trends - The recent month-long selloff in sugar has led to NY sugar prices hitting a 5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar prices reaching a 4.75-year low, primarily due to higher sugar output and expectations of a global sugar surplus [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT, with sugar output in the first half of October increasing by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 MMT [5] Group 3: Global Sugar Surplus Projections - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimated a surplus of 4.1 MMT for the same period [4] - The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is expected to negatively impact sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains have led to a potential bumper crop [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have experienced a significant decline, with NY Sugar closing down 3.05% and London sugar down 3.02%, reaching multi-year lows due to expectations of robust global sugar supplies [1][2] Supply Outlook - Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 is projected to increase by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - Unica reported a 10.8% year-on-year increase in Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September, totaling 3.137 MMT [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South for 2025-26 through September rose by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [3] India’s Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline of 17.5% in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that could lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports, potentially reaching 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased due to a decline in the dollar index, leading to short-covering in sugar futures [2] - The global sugar supply outlook remains robust, with projected surpluses for the 2025/26 and 2025/25 seasons [2] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.11 (+0.70%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +0.50 (+0.11%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 3-week low earlier in the week, while London sugar hit a 4.25-year nearest-futures low [2] Production and Supply Factors - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of September increased by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons [3] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil rose to 51.17% from 47.73% year-on-year [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region for 2025-26 through September increased by +0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 million tons [3] Indian Sugar Market Dynamics - India's monsoon rainfall was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - Projections suggest India's sugar production for 2025/26 could rise by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations due to a surplus [5]

Market Overview - Sugar prices showed a recovery on Tuesday, with NY world sugar 11 closing up by 1.73% and December London ICE white sugar 5 up by 1.53% [1] - The initial decline in sugar prices was attributed to a weaker dollar and short covering in sugar futures, with NY sugar hitting a 3-week low and London sugar reaching a 4.25-year low [2] Supply and Production Insights - The global sugar supply outlook remains robust, contributing to downward pressure on prices, with BMI Group projecting a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26 and Covrig Analytics estimating a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output has increased significantly, with a reported 15.7% year-on-year rise in the first half of September, totaling 3.622 million tons [3] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil's mills rose to 53.49% in late August, up from 47.74% the previous year, although cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 through mid-September fell slightly by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [3] Regional Production Forecasts - India's sugar production is expected to rebound significantly, with a projected 19% year-on-year increase to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a decline to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, indicating favorable conditions for a bumper sugar crop [4] Export Dynamics - India's potential to divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus, leading to increased export expectations of up to 4 MMT, surpassing earlier estimates of 2 MMT [5]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have extended losses, with NY world sugar 11 down by 0.30 (-1.80%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 down by 7.60 (-1.66%), reaching a 2-week low [1] - The decline in sugar prices is attributed to a projected global sugar surplus of +4.1 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by +15.7% year-on-year (y/y) to 3.622 MMT, contributing to bearish market sentiment [3] - The sugar content in Brazil's Center-South sugarcane dropped to 154.58 kg/ton in the first half of September, down from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills rose to 53.49% in the second half of August, compared to 47.74% the same time last year [3] Group 3: India's Sugar Outlook - India's cumulative monsoon rain as of September 30 was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a +19% y/y increase in sugar production for 2025/26 to 34.9 MMT, following a -17.5% y/y decline in 2024/25 [4] - Sugar trader Sucden indicated that India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]