机构：中银国际 研究员：Raphael CHEN/Dolores Tang We forecast 6% YoY inline topline contributed by mixed -14% YoY game, +23% YoY online ad and +5% YoY VAS. ~RMB850m forcasted adj. operating profit (10.4% adj. OPM) beat consensus. We believe the Co. is committed to executing its high quality growth strategy on healthy user growth and richer mid-to-long content ecosystems in 2026. Despite dynamic game especially Ncard, we deem strong online ad momentum empowered by accelerated AI on the acquisitions of high LTV users wil ...

Summary of Bilibili Inc Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bilibili Inc (BILI.O) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Current Price Target**: Raised from US$23.00 to US$25.00 [4][10] Key Financial Insights - **3Q Performance**: Bilibili reported a profit beat in Q3, with improved advertising momentum and success from the game "Escape From Duckov," which sold over 3 million copies [1][8] - **4Q Guidance**: Revenue growth expected at a mid-single-digit (MSD) rate for Q4 2025, with gross profit margin (GPM) and adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) projected at 37% and 10%, respectively [2][4] - **2025 Profit Outlook**: Profit outlook for 2025 raised by 14%, with EPS estimates increased by 2% for 2025-2026 [4][9] Revenue Breakdown - **Game Revenue**: Expected to be flat or slightly up quarter-over-quarter due to seasonal weakness from the San Mou season. New game "Ncard" set to release in mid-2026 [8] - **Advertising Revenue**: Anticipated to grow at a low-20s percentage rate, supported by increased ad budgets and a solid 9% year-over-year growth in daily active users (DAU) [8][24] AI Applications - Bilibili is implementing three AI tools: a multilingual translation tool, a video generation model for podcasts, and internal efficiency improvements through AI. Management sees potential in enhancing creator productivity due to a shortage of high-quality content [3] Valuation and Market Position - **Valuation Metrics**: Current P/E ratio at 28x for 2026 estimates, considered full. The stock is rated as equal-weight due to insufficiently attractive valuation [4][24] - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately US$12.5 billion with an average daily trading value of US$98 million [6] Risks and Considerations - **Potential Risks**: Lower-than-expected MAU growth, increased competition, and higher costs could impact margins and revenue growth [33] - **Investment Drivers**: Continued strength in advertising revenue, successful game launches, and margin expansion are critical for future performance [24][29] Additional Insights - **User Metrics**: Monthly active users (MAU) projected to grow from 348.9 million in 2025 to 387.6 million in 2027 [15] - **Financial Projections**: Total revenue expected to reach RMB 30.2 billion in 2025, with a gross margin of 37% [11][15] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Bilibili's financial performance, growth outlook, and strategic initiatives in the context of the competitive landscape.