观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 上周印尼对镍工业园区港口物流的合规问题审查令供应扰动风险进一步上升，而主产区正值雨季，红土镍矿易发生液化，原料供应稳定性面临考 验。与供应端扰动频发相对应的是，镍产品12月净进口量大幅增加，而下游需求偏弱使得库存矛盾仍在进一步累积，镍价暂以震荡盘整为主，后 | | | | 续随着镍矿供应趋紧、供需格局预期得到改善，镍价仍有上行驱动。 | | 镍矿价格 | 偏多 | 截至1月26日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别+1、+4、+0至30、59、78.5美元/湿吨。 | | 印尼内贸镍矿 | 偏多 | 截至1月26日，印尼Ni1.2%、Ni1.6%内贸镍矿到厂价环比上周分别+0、+3.1至21.5、55美元/湿吨。 | | 海运费 | 偏空 | 上周菲律宾-天津港、菲律宾-连云港海运费环比分别-0.25、-0.25至8.25、7.25美元/湿吨。 | | 精炼镍产量 | 偏空 | 截至2025年12月，中国电解镍月度产量环比+0.56万吨至3.14万吨，环比+21.7%，同 ...

Core Points - Pacific Nickel Mines (PNM) subsidiary Pacific Nickel International (PNI) has agreed to sell 100% of its shares in the Kolosori nickel project to Green Rock under a share sale and purchase agreement (SPA) [1] - The Kolosori nickel project is located on Isabel Island and is a direct shipping ore nickel laterite project [1] - PNM holds an 80% stake in Pacific Nickel Mines Kolosori (PNMK), which is the owner and operator of the Kolosori nickel project [1] Financial and Legal Aspects - GRP & Associates has agreed to guarantee the buyer's obligations under the SPA [2] - A significant aspect of the transaction is the Glencore deed of release, which releases PNM from all liabilities under the Glencore secured facility agreement, currently guaranteeing $22 million (A$33.85 million) plus approximately $8.6 million in accrued interest [2][3] - The deed of release will become effective upon completion of the SPA and is a condition precedent to closing the transaction [3] Operational Context - PNM previously announced the cessation of operations at the Kolosori project due to operational challenges and a weak nickel price outlook in the short to medium term [5] - The PNM board concluded that entering into the SPA for the sale of the Kolosori nickel project is in the best interests of the company [5] Royalty Agreement - PNI has entered into a royalty agreement with Green Rock, entitling Pacific Nickel to a 1% royalty on nickel ore shipped from the Kolosori nickel project, contingent on monthly shipments exceeding 170,000 tonnes and the benchmark price on the Shanghai Metals Market averaging above $72 per tonne [4]

Core Insights - The company is focusing on operational efficiency following disappointing results in H1 2025, with a commitment to improve performance in the second half of the year [2][4][19] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA (excluding SLN) for H1 2025 was €191 million, down 45% compared to H1 2024, primarily due to reduced contributions from PT WBN and unfavorable product mix [4][19] - Net Income, Group share (excluding SLN) was negative at -€101 million, a decline of €132 million year-on-year [4][19] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow was -€266 million, with liquidity remaining high at €1.7 billion [4][24] Operational Highlights - Safety performance remained strong with a Group TRIFR of 0.6, significantly better than the CSR roadmap target of <1.0 [5] - Manganese ore transported volumes are revised to between 6.5 and 7.0 million tonnes for 2025, with FOB cash costs adjusted to between $2.1 and $2.3/dmtu [4][47] - Nickel ore sales are projected between 36 and 39 million wet metric tonnes for 2025, reflecting revised licensing [4][64] Market Trends - Global carbon steel production declined by nearly 2% in H1 2025, with China experiencing a 3% drop due to reduced domestic demand [33][34] - The price index for manganese ore averaged $4.6/dmtu in H1 2025, down 14% year-on-year, influenced by increased supply from South Africa and Australia [38][39] - Global demand for lithium increased by 29% in H1 2025, driven by electric vehicle sales, while lithium supply also rose, leading to a surplus in the market [81][82] Strategic Initiatives - The company launched an in-depth operational review in June 2025 to enhance performance [4] - A controlled capex plan for 2025 is reiterated at between €400 million and €450 million, focusing on sustaining and strengthening rail transportation capacity [4][97] - The company is actively pursuing health prevention efforts as part of its "Act for Positive Mining" roadmap [8]