Core Insights - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is set to release its second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) of 51 cents, reflecting a 27.5% increase from 40 cents in the same quarter last year [1][3] - The consensus revenue estimate for the second quarter is $2.56 billion, indicating a 7.8% growth year-over-year [3][8] Earnings Estimate Trend - The EPS estimates for the current quarter have remained stable at 51 cents over the past 30 days, with projections for the next quarters being 1.17 for Q3 2025, 2.01 for the current year, and 2.42 for next year [3][4] - The company has a history of earnings surprises, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 34% [4][6] Revenue Drivers - The anticipated revenue growth is attributed to firm pricing discipline, resilient onboard spending, and the full-quarter impact of the newly launched Norwegian Aqua [9][10] - Onboard revenues, including specialty dining and excursions, are expected to rise significantly, with passenger ticket revenues projected to increase by 1.5% to $1.6 billion and onboard revenues expected to grow by 17.9% to $908.7 million [10][11] Margin Considerations - Cost pressures from the launch of Norwegian Aqua and deferred costs from Q1 are expected to impact margin expansion, with adjusted net cruise costs anticipated to rise by approximately 1.4% [15][16] - Despite these pressures, the company expects adjusted EBITDA to be around $670 million for the second quarter [16] Stock Performance and Valuation - NCLH shares have increased by 49% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry, which rose by 31.8% [17] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 10.64X, which is below the industry average of 20.26X, indicating a potential undervaluation [19] Strategic Focus - The company is enhancing its position in the leisure travel market through fleet modernization and improved guest experiences, with a focus on maximizing yield and onboard engagement [21][26] - Ongoing initiatives, such as the "Charting the Course" program, aim to improve cost control and operational efficiency, supporting long-term margin performance [24][26]

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) has reported a significant rebound in profitability, achieving its highest second-quarter EBITDA margins in nearly 20 years, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.51 billion, an increase from $1.2 billion in the same quarter last year [1][9] - The company attributes its margin improvement to strong pricing and operational leverage, with yields increasing by nearly 6.5% year over year, surpassing guidance by 200 basis points [2][9] - Carnival has exceeded two of its three 2026 SEA Change targets ahead of schedule, with EBITDA per available lower berth day rising 52% from 2023 levels and return on invested capital increasing by 12.5% [3] Financial Performance - The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved from 4.1 to 3.7 in the fiscal second quarter, alongside a decline in interest expenses, indicating a positive trend in bottom-line metrics [4] - Carnival has raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook to approximately $6.9 billion, reflecting a 10% increase from 2024 levels and exceeding previous guidance of $6.7 billion [5][9] Competitive Landscape - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) reported EBITDA margins of 35% in the first quarter, a 360 basis point improvement year over year, driven by strong bookings and favorable pricing [6] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) posted adjusted EBITDA of $453 million in the first quarter of 2025, with a trailing 12-month EBITDA margin of 35.5%, up 280 basis points from the prior year, supported by a company-wide efficiency program [7] Market Performance - CCL shares have increased by 40.5% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 16.8% [8] - CCL trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.29X, significantly below the industry average of 18.98X [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCL's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 38% and 13.4%, respectively, with EPS estimates having risen in the past 30 days [11]

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is shifting towards high-impact marketing strategies to enhance bookings due to limited capacity growth, with no new ship deliveries in 2026 and only three scheduled over the next four years [1][8] Marketing Strategies - In Q1 fiscal 2025, Carnival executed extensive marketing campaigns during Wave season, leveraging cultural events like the Oscars and Super Bowl, featuring brand ambassadors and generating over 5 billion media impressions [2] - Costa Cruises and AIDA Cruises also engaged in promotional activities, with Costa enhancing its visibility through a live performance during the Sanremo Music Festival and AIDA revamping onboard experiences [2] Financial Performance - Carnival reported historically high pricing across all core programs, with over 80% of 2025 capacity booked by the end of Q1 fiscal 2025, and record booking volumes for 2026 [3][8] - The strong marketing execution contributed to a 7.3% year-over-year increase in net yields during the fiscal first quarter [3][8] Competitive Landscape - Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) is focusing on customer loyalty through app adoption and personalization, achieving record demand for new ships and the best Wave season in company history [5] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is adopting a targeted approach with experiential upgrades and significant enhancements to its offerings, aiming for brand differentiation and premium pricing [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - CCL shares have increased by 26.7% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 12.7% [7] - CCL trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.24X, below the industry average of 18.57X [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCL's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 30.3% and 12.8%, respectively [11] - Current EPS estimates for fiscal 2025 are 1.85, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 30.28% [12]

Industry Overview - The cruise industry is projected to welcome 37.7 million passengers in 2025, indicating steady growth and strong consumer demand [2] - 82% of past cruisers plan to sail again, and 68% of international travelers are considering their first cruise, with first-time cruisers accounting for 31% of all passengers over the past two years [2] - Multi-generational cruising is increasing, with nearly one-third of passengers traveling with three or more generations, and expedition cruises have seen a 22% year-over-year increase in passengers [3] Carnival Corporation (CCL) - Carnival operates eight cruise brands and is leveraging its scale and brand depth to achieve strong performance, with over 80% of 2025 sailings already booked [5][20] - The company is enhancing guest experience through exclusive destinations and is expected to drive incremental revenues and improve customer loyalty [6] - Carnival is focused on deleveraging, targeting a $5 billion reduction in debt over 2025-2026, and is well-positioned to generate strong free cash flow [7] - The stock has rallied 42.2% in the past year, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [16] - Carnival's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 11.30X, below the industry average of 17.32X [22] Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) - Norwegian is enhancing guest experience and operational efficiency with its new Prima Plus class ship and investments in its private island, Great Stirrup Cay [9][10] - The company is executing a cost transformation initiative aimed at delivering $300 million in savings while focusing on refinancing and reducing overall leverage [11] - Despite a slight adjustment in its full-year yield outlook, Norwegian reaffirmed its broader earnings and EBITDA guidance, reflecting confidence in demand trends [12] - Norwegian's stock has risen 4.6% over the past year [16] - The forward 12-month P/E ratio for NCLH is 7.87X, indicating a lower valuation compared to Carnival [22] Comparative Analysis - Both Carnival and Norwegian are benefiting from strong industry demand and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing guest experience and financial health [19] - Carnival's unmatched scale and brand diversification position it better to capitalize on structural growth in the cruise sector, while Norwegian's smaller scale makes it more vulnerable to short-term fluctuations [20] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival suggests year-over-year increases of 4.1% in sales and 30.3% in EPS for fiscal 2025, while Norwegian's estimates indicate increases of 6.2% in sales and 12.6% in EPS [13][14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $453 million, exceeding guidance of $435 million, with a trailing twelve-month margin of 35.5%, reflecting a 280 basis point improvement year-over-year [7][24][33] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.07, slightly below guidance due to a $0.05 foreign exchange headwind [8][24] - Net yields increased by 1.2%, driven by a 4.3% growth in net per diem, outperforming expectations [7][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The delivery of the new ship Norwegian Aqua was highlighted as a key initiative, showcasing enhancements aimed at improving guest experience while optimizing financial performance [6][8] - Significant progress was made in modernizing the existing fleet, with dry docks completed for Norwegian Bliss and Norwegian Breakaway, introducing new guest-focused enhancements [16][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advanced ticket sales were up 3%, while occupancy was reported at 101.5%, down year-over-year due to increased dry dock days [19][24] - The company noted a 10% year-over-year increase in Caribbean capacity for Q4, which is expected to positively impact demand [20][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on balancing return on investment (ROI) with return on experience (ROX), with initiatives including fleet optimization and enhancements to private island Great Stirrup Cay [6][12] - The strategic expansion of close-to-home itineraries is expected to improve the demand profile in the mid to long term [21][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties but expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the cruise industry, which accounts for only 2% of the global vacation market [39][41] - The company is maintaining its full-year adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS guidance, reflecting confidence in its ability to execute despite potential top-line pressures [21][41] Other Important Information - The company has identified initiatives supporting $300 million in cost efficiencies across the organization, with a commitment to optimizing revenue and controlling costs [22][33] - The company is actively managing its balance sheet, with a focus on reducing leverage and maintaining a strong liquidity position [35][37] Q&A Session Summary Question: Could you elaborate on recent changes in the booked position for 2025 and early 2026? - Management noted some choppiness in bookings related to Q3 itineraries but indicated a return to normality in recent weeks, with bookings for 2026 ahead of historical levels [45][46] Question: Have you seen any notable change with recent onboard spending? - Onboard revenue trends remain strong, with guests continuing to spend at solid levels once onboard [51][75] Question: Can you break down bookings for the Norwegian brand versus luxury brands? - All three brands are experiencing similar booking patterns, with pressure primarily on Q3 Europe itineraries [63][65] Question: How do you think about the ROI of the investments in Great Stirrup Cay? - Investments in Great Stirrup Cay are expected to drive marketability and onboard spend, with a goal of increasing annual visitors from 400,000 to over 1,000,000 [91][92] Question: Is the greater mix of Caribbean and Fun and Sun itineraries a yield tailwind? - The company believes the mix will provide a yield tailwind, benefiting from both higher occupancy and lower operational costs [93][94]

Core Viewpoint - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. reported solid first quarter results for 2025, maintaining its profitability guidance for the full year despite macroeconomic challenges [2][4][10]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $2.1 billion, a decrease of approximately 3% compared to the first quarter of 2024 [6][7]. - The company reported a GAAP net loss of $40.3 million, with an EPS of ($0.09), reflecting a decline of $57.6 million compared to the same period in 2024 [6][7]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $453 million, slightly down by 2% from $464 million in 2024, but above the guidance of $435 million [6][7]. - Adjusted EPS was $0.07, slightly below guidance due to foreign exchange losses [6][7]. Operational Highlights - The company welcomed the delivery of Norwegian Aqua, its first Prima Plus Class vessel, and completed refurbishments on Norwegian Bliss and Norwegian Breakaway [4][6]. - Gross margin per Capacity Day increased by 5% on an as-reported basis and 7% on a Constant Currency basis compared to 2024 [7]. - Net Yield growth was approximately 0.6% on an as-reported basis, exceeding the guidance of 0.5% [7]. Debt and Liquidity - Total debt stood at $14.0 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 5.7x as of March 31, 2025, an increase of 0.4x from December 31, 2024 [8][12]. - The company had liquidity of $1.4 billion, including $184.4 million in cash and cash equivalents [13][12]. Future Guidance - The company maintained its full year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance at approximately $2.72 billion, representing an 11% increase year-over-year [15]. - Full year 2025 Adjusted EPS guidance remains unchanged at $2.05, reflecting a 13% increase compared to 2024 [15]. - The company expects Net Yield to increase between 2.0% and 3.0% on a Constant Currency basis for 2025, slightly revised from previous guidance of ~3.0% [15]. Booking Environment - The company noted a softening in its 12-month forward booked position but remains within an optimal range, with occupancy at 101.5% for the first quarter of 2025 [11][10]. - Advance ticket sales balance at the end of the first quarter was $3.9 billion, up 2.6% year-over-year [11]. Capital Expenditures - The company reported newbuild-and-growth capital expenditures of $1.361 billion for the first quarter of 2025, with expectations of approximately $2.6 billion for the full year [28].

Core Insights - Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) officially christened its newest ship, Norwegian Aqua, in Miami, marking a significant milestone for the company [1][3][4] - NCL announced plans to enhance its private island, Great Stirrup Cay, with new experiences set to debut in the fourth quarter of 2025, focusing on relaxation and family activities [1][6][8] Ship Details - Norwegian Aqua is the first ship in the Prima Plus Class, measuring 1,056 feet long and weighing 156,300 gross tons, accommodating 3,571 guests at double occupancy [15] - The ship features the world's first hybrid roller coaster and waterslide, named the Aqua Slidecoaster, along with various entertainment options and spacious accommodations [16][17] Great Stirrup Cay Enhancements - The island will see the introduction of an expansive pool area, a kids splash zone, and a swim-up bar, enhancing the family-friendly experience [6][7] - Additional amenities will include a new Vibe Beach Club for adults, Horizon Park for recreational activities, and a relaxation area with hammocks [7][8] Event Highlights - The christening ceremony was attended by over 2,000 guests and included performances and remarks from key NCL executives [3][6][9] - Eric Stonestreet, the godfather of Norwegian Aqua, emphasized the ship's unique features and the overall guest experience [10][9] Future Itineraries - Following its christening, Norwegian Aqua will operate seven-day Eastern Caribbean sailings from Port Canaveral, Florida, with stops at various destinations including Great Stirrup Cay [11] Value Offerings - NCL introduced the "More At Sea" program, providing guests with unlimited open bar, specialty dining credits, and other benefits, enhancing the overall value of cruising with NCL [12][19]