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Morning Bid: Markets to Fed: We'll take five to go, please
Yahoo Financeยท 2025-09-12 04:35
Group 1 - U.S. CPI data indicates a firmer trend, leading analysts to adjust forecasts to +0.2% month-over-month and a steady 2.9% year-over-year, supporting the Federal Reserve's potential easing cycle with a 25 basis points cut next week [1] - The labor market data has shown a significant downward shift, prompting discussions around a more aggressive 50 basis points cut, which could maintain market momentum if supported by dissenting votes [2] - Futures markets are pricing in 71 basis points of cuts by Christmas and 125 basis points by July, suggesting expectations for multiple rate cuts in upcoming meetings [3] Group 2 - Recent bond market movements have led to a quarter-point reduction in mortgage rates, with 10-year yields decreasing approximately 20 basis points over the past two weeks, indicating a need for the Fed to signal further easing [4] - The prospect of lower U.S. borrowing costs has enhanced liquidity in Asia, driving record highs in indexes across Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, with the Kospi rising nearly 6% for the week [5] - The U.S. dollar has remained stable against major currencies despite falling yields, with the dollar index showing only a slight decline, while the Australian dollar and Norwegian crown have reached significant highs [6] Group 3 - Key market developments to watch include speeches from Bank of Spain Governor Jose Luis Escriva and ECB policymaker Olli Rehn, along with UK GDP and manufacturing output data for July, and final readings on EU CPI [7]