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The 2nm Race: Intel's 18A Faces Uphill Task Against TSMC
Forbesยท 2025-06-20 09:00
Group 1: Intel's Strategic Shift - Intel is committed to becoming a global foundry leader, investing over $90 billion in capital expenditures to expand its foundry operations and compete with TSMC and Samsung [2] - The foundry segment faced losses of nearly $13 billion last year, and Intel's shares have decreased by nearly 50% since their peak in 2024 [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Intel's new 18A process utilizes 1.8nm technology, currently in risk production, with initial batches being tested for manufacturing enhancements [4] - Innovations like RibbonFET gate-all-around transistors and PowerVia backside power delivery are expected to improve performance and energy efficiency, particularly for AI applications [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - TSMC holds over two-thirds of the foundry market and is expected to lead the 2nm generation, with mass production starting in late 2025 [5] - TSMC's 2nm process promises a 10% to 15% performance enhancement and up to 30% reduction in power usage compared to its 3nm node, with current yields at 60% [5][6] - Intel's yield rates for the 18A process are reported to be between 20% to 30%, while Samsung achieves 40% yields on its competing technology [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics - TSMC has a loyal customer base, including major clients like Apple and AMD, while Intel is diversifying its strategy by engaging TSMC for some upcoming processors [6] - Despite Intel's claims of improved performance with the 18A process, TSMC's chips are likely to maintain advantages in density and cost [7] Group 5: Stock Performance - Intel's stock has shown significant volatility, with annual returns of 6% in 2021, -47% in 2022, 95% in 2023, and -60% in 2024, contrasting with the more stable performance of the Trefis High Quality Portfolio [8]