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Prediction: Super Micro Computer Could Surge by 150% in the Next Year
The Motley Foolยท 2025-04-21 08:00
Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is positioned for a significant resurgence despite recent challenges, including allegations of accounting manipulation and concerns over AI infrastructure investment [1][2][3]. Financial and Audit Developments - Super Micro's new auditor, BDO, has verified the company's revenue and profit for 2022, 2023, and 2024 as accurate, despite previous issues with Ernst & Young resigning [4][7]. - The company is upgrading its IT and accounting systems and is in the process of hiring a new CFO to improve its financial controls [7][8]. - The abrupt resignation of Ernst & Young may have been influenced by its own scandals, which could have led to a cautious approach regarding Super Micro [6]. AI Market Outlook - Despite fears of an AI infrastructure slowdown, investment in AI is expected to continue unless a severe global recession occurs [9][10]. - IDC forecasts a 42% compound annual growth rate for AI servers through 2028, aligning with Super Micro's CEO's expectation of 40% annual revenue growth [11]. Gross Margin Analysis - Super Micro's gross margin has decreased from over 18% at the end of 2022 to 11.8% recently, attributed to increased competition [14][16]. - Management maintains a long-term gross margin target of 14% to 17%, indicating potential for recovery as new technologies are introduced [19]. Valuation and Growth Potential - Super Micro's stock is trading at a low valuation of 13.7 times trailing earnings and eight times earnings estimates for fiscal 2026, suggesting significant upside potential [20]. - If the company achieves $40 billion in revenue by 2026 with a gross margin of 15%, it could yield a net profit of approximately $3.7 billion, translating to about $5.65 per share [22][23]. - A conservative multiple of 14 times earnings could elevate the share price to $80, representing over 150% upside from current levels [24].