But Oracle stock bounced back on Thursday following positive analyst commentary. A 3.1% gain on the day sent Oracle decisively back above the stock's 21-day moving average. Meanwhile, Oracle stock traded sideways on the stock market today, last up a fraction at 297.69. Oracle (ORCL) is the IBD Stock of the Day for Friday. Shares of the enterprise tech giant shook off a slide from early in the week and swung up beyond a trendline entry Friday morning. The 48-year-old database software and cloud-computing co ...

I bring in Diane King Hall to take a look at some of the key stories here on Wall Street. Good morning to you. Uh we're kicking it off with Levi Strauss.Not so great. >> No stock is under some pressure today. It did beat expectations on both the top and bottom line, but there's some concern about the impact of tariffs on Levis's which they expect to see some uh impact there.They are expecting fourth quarter revenue to decline approximately 3% from last year. However, they did their projections overall, thei ...

on 09-Oct-2025 Global Software Oracle Corp Rating Outperform Price Target ORCL 364.00 USD 9 October 2025 Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8506 mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Firoz Valliji, CFA +1 917 344 8316 firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Shelly Tang, CFA +1 917 344 8342 shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com Oracle: Placing in perspective recent news articles and what to expect from the Financial Analyst Day The Oracle story has changed significantly over the last year as the company announced last October long term ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's long-term growth potential may be hindered by power supply issues, necessitating significant investments in energy to meet its ambitious revenue targets for the cloud business by FY30 [2][4]. Group 1: Oracle's Growth and Power Supply - Oracle's guidance includes a projected $145 billion in OCI revenue by FY30, but the sustainability of this growth is questioned due to potential power supply constraints [2][4]. - Competitors like Microsoft are already investing in alternative energy sources, indicating a trend that Oracle may need to follow to secure its growth [3][4]. - The need for a cohesive strategy regarding power sourcing is emphasized, as Oracle's long-term guidance may not account for future energy demands [4]. Group 2: Revenue Quality and Capacity Concerns - Oracle benefits from excess GPU capacity, but there are concerns about future capacity constraints that could impact its competitive position [7][8]. - The quality of revenue growth is under scrutiny, with some margins potentially being negative for certain use cases, raising questions about the overall profitability of Oracle's cloud business [5][8]. - The shift in power dynamics from inferencing to fine-tuning could provide some margin uplift, but evidence is needed to support the notion of a highly profitable business model [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Alternatives - Microsoft is highlighted as a preferred investment due to its higher quality AI revenue generation across various layers, contrasting with Oracle's current strategy [9][10]. - Other companies like MongoDB, HubSpot, and Intuit are identified as under-the-radar opportunities to capitalize on the AI trend, suggesting a broader competitive landscape beyond Oracle and Microsoft [11][12].

Core Insights - Oracle has a current market share of 3% in the cloud sector, indicating significant potential for growth and expansion in this market [1] - The author believes that Oracle's position as a cloud underdog presents a strong upside opportunity for investors [1] Company Background - Oracle is positioned within the technology sector, focusing on growth stocks with potential for above-market returns [1] - The company emphasizes innovation, scalability, and market disruptiveness as key factors for its growth strategy [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach includes a long-short strategy on indices, utilizing macroeconomic analysis to navigate market cycles [1] - The focus is on identifying companies that can deliver substantial returns over the medium term, particularly in the technology sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Oracle Corp. (ORCL) with a price target raised to $195 from $145, reflecting a potential upside of 10.6% from the current price of $176.38 [1]. Core Insights - Oracle's strong F4Q results exceeded consensus expectations in revenue (+2%) and gross profit (+1%), although free cash flow (FCF) was significantly below expectations due to a 140% increase in capital expenditures [1]. - The company anticipates a 100 basis points increase in FY26 revenue guidance, with a solid performance in remaining performance obligations (RPO), which grew 41% year-over-year [1]. - Oracle's cloud infrastructure (IaaS) is expected to grow over 70% in FY26, driven by a 62% increase in OCI consumption, indicating strong demand [1]. - The company aims to double its RPO in FY26, excluding Stargate contributions, reflecting a robust OCI pipeline [1]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding the ambitious growth targets for both IaaS and SaaS, which may be challenging to achieve given the current macroeconomic constraints [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for Oracle are updated to $57.4 billion for FY25, $67.1 billion for FY26, $80.6 billion for FY27, and $92.8 billion for FY28 [3]. - EBITDA is projected to grow from $31.2 billion in FY25 to $54.5 billion in FY28, indicating a strong upward trend [3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditures, projected at approximately $25 billion for FY26, raising questions about its impact on future earnings [1][15]. Market Position and Strategy - Oracle is positioned as a strong player in the IaaS market, gaining traction with major customers like Uber and TikTok, despite being a distant fourth compared to hyperscalers [15]. - The company is also focusing on its strategic back-office applications, which are experiencing steady growth, particularly through its NetSuite and Fusion ERP offerings [15]. - Long-term targets include achieving over $104 billion in revenue by FY29, with a commitment to AI investments underpinning this growth [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 26.0 for FY25, decreasing to 17.9 by FY28, indicating a potential for improved valuation as earnings grow [9]. - Free cash flow yield is projected to improve from negative in FY25 to 0.9% by FY28, reflecting a recovery in cash generation capabilities [9]. - The report notes that Oracle's valuation at 22x FY27 P/E reflects a balanced risk-reward scenario until further evidence of growth materializes [15].