IBM (NYSE:IBM) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 28, 2026 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsArvind Krishna - CEOJames Kavanaugh - CFOMatthew Swanson - Director and Equity ResearchOlympia McNerney - Head of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsAmit Daryanani - AnalystOperatorWelcome, and thank you for standing by. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now, I will turn the meeting over to ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - IBM achieved a revenue growth of 6% in 2025, the highest level in many years, and generated $14.7 billion in free cash flow, the highest in over a decade [4][17] - The company reported a 12% growth in operating diluted earnings per share and a 17% growth in Adjusted EBITDA [17][24] - Operating pre-tax margin expanded by 100 basis points, reflecting strong execution and a favorable portfolio mix [17][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Software revenue grew 9% in 2025, with three of four sub-segments delivering double-digit growth rates [5][18] - Infrastructure revenue increased by 10%, driven by the successful launch of the z17 mainframe [18] - Consulting revenue grew 1%, reflecting increased demand for AI services [8][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data solutions grew by 19%, driven by demand for GenAI products [20] - Automation solutions saw a growth of 14%, with record bookings for HashiCorp [20] - Red Hat's revenue growth decelerated to 8%, impacted by delays in U.S. federal business deal activity [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - IBM is focused on becoming a software-led hybrid cloud and AI platform company, with significant investments in innovation and productivity initiatives [4][10] - The company aims to sustain revenue growth of 5%+ in 2026, with a strong emphasis on its software business, expected to grow by 10% [28][34] - Strategic acquisitions, such as Confluent, are seen as key to enhancing IBM's hybrid cloud and automation solutions [10][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that client demand remains resilient, particularly in hybrid cloud, AI, and mission-critical infrastructure [6][16] - The company expressed confidence in sustaining growth momentum, with expectations for free cash flow to increase by about $1 billion in 2026 [28][34] - Management highlighted the importance of productivity initiatives, which have already exceeded initial targets [11][33] Other Important Information - IBM's cumulative GenAI book of business reached over $12.5 billion, with significant contributions from both software and consulting [9][31] - The company is advancing its quantum computing initiatives, with plans to deliver a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on software growth acceleration - Management expressed confidence in organic growth within the software segment, driven by increased demand for automation and data solutions [40][46] Question: Free cash flow performance and guidance - Management attributed the strong free cash flow performance in 2025 to revenue growth and operating leverage, with a guidance of $15.7 billion for 2026 [49][52] Question: Red Hat's growth trajectory - Management acknowledged the challenges in Red Hat's growth but emphasized the strategic value and ongoing demand for its offerings [57][60]

Core Insights - IBM reported $17 billion in revenue for Q2 2025 and $4.8 billion in free cash flow for the first half of the year, driven by strong performance in software and infrastructure [1][2] - The company raised its full-year free cash flow outlook to above $13.5 billion and affirmed revenue growth guidance above 5%, supported by double-digit growth in Red Hat and strong AI-related bookings [2][10] Software Growth - Red Hat contributed 3.5 percentage points to organic software growth, while automation grew by 15% in the first half of 2025, with OpenShift achieving $1.7 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) [3][4] - IBM expects near-double-digit software revenue growth for FY2025 at constant currency, driven by strong performance in hybrid cloud and automation [4][10] Productivity and Margins - IBM expanded its operating gross profit margin by 230 basis points, reflecting productivity initiatives and AI integration into workflows [5][6] - The company anticipates reaching $4.5 billion in annual run rate savings by the end of 2025, which will further enhance margin expansion and cash flow conversion [5][6] AI Portfolio and Ecosystem - IBM's cumulative Gen AI book of business surpassed $7.5 billion, with AI now accounting for over 10% of consulting revenue at a margin premium [7][9] - The company has established deep partnerships with major players like Oracle and AWS, enhancing its competitive position in enterprise AI [7][9] Future Outlook - IBM reaffirmed a constant currency revenue growth of over 5% and expects software revenue to approach double-digit growth, with Red Hat growth in the mid-teens [10] - Operating pre-tax margin is expected to expand by about one point for the full year, aligning with consensus expectations for revenue and profit [10]

Financial Performance Highlights - IBM's Q2 2025 revenue reached $17 billion, showing a 5% year-over-year growth[13] - The company's free cash flow for Q2 2025 was $28 billion[13,35], and the first half of 2025 saw $48 billion in free cash flow[21,35] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 16% year-over-year[14] - Software ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) grew by 10% year-over-year, reaching $227 billion[14,15] Segment Performance - Software revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to $74 billion[16,30] - Infrastructure revenue grew by 11% year-over-year to $41 billion, with IBM Z revenue increasing significantly by 67%[18,30] - Consulting revenue remained flat at $53 billion[20] Strategic Initiatives and Outlook - Generative AI book of business exceeded $75 billion[11,21] - IBM is raising its full-year outlook for free cash flow, expecting it to exceed $135 billion[11,22] - The company anticipates revenue growth to inflect higher to 5%+ for the full year 2025[22]

Summary of IBM FY Conference Call - May 29, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) - **CEO**: Arvind Krishna, who has been with IBM for 34 years and CEO since April 2020 [2][3] Key Industry Insights - **Core Technologies**: Focus on hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) as fundamental technologies for client success [4][5] - **R&D Investment**: R&D spending has increased by approximately 60% over the last five years, with over 30 acquisitions to support growth in software and consulting [6] - **Market Position**: IBM's hybrid cloud portfolio, particularly after the acquisition of Red Hat, is positioned as a market leader [5] Financial Performance - **Growth Metrics**: IBM has committed to mid-single-digit growth and has exceeded its free cash flow growth target of approximately $750 million per year [6][7] - **Revenue Composition**: Software now accounts for 45% of total revenues, up from low 20% in 2020, with growth rates improving from 2% to 9% [28][29] AI Strategy - **AI Business**: IBM's AI business is valued at $6 billion, with 80% from consulting and 20% from software [13][14] - **Client Investment**: A survey of 2,000 C-suite leaders indicates a doubling of AI investment over the next two years, although only 25% have seen the expected ROI from past investments [18][19] - **Internal AI Deployment**: IBM has saved $3.5 billion through AI implementation across 70 enterprise workflows, achieving high automation rates in HR and IT help desks [21][22] Hybrid Cloud and Software Growth - **Red Hat Performance**: Red Hat is expected to grow at mid-teens rates, driven by the demand for secure operating systems and containerization [36][38] - **OpenShift Success**: OpenShift has seen a 13-fold revenue increase over five years, indicating strong demand for container platforms [29][39] Consulting Business - **Consulting Growth**: Despite short-term uncertainty affecting discretionary consulting, long-term growth is expected to be mid-single digits, driven by AI and hybrid cloud needs [49][50] - **Partnerships**: Strong partnerships with major players like Amazon, Microsoft, and SAP are expected to enhance consulting growth [52][56] Mainframe and Transaction Processing - **Mainframe Demand**: The upcoming z17 mainframe is expected to be 17% more power-efficient, with strong early demand signals [58][61] - **Transaction Processing Growth**: Growth is primarily driven by existing clients and capacity increases rather than new client acquisitions [44][47] Quantum Computing - **Leadership Position**: IBM has built 75 quantum computers and aims for quantum advantage by the end of the decade [67][72] - **Commercialization Strategy**: Future commercialization may involve offering quantum computing as a service rather than physical sales [96] Capital Allocation - **Strategy**: IBM is committed to dividends, with excess cash primarily allocated to M&A that aligns with strategic growth areas [81][83] Conclusion - **Market Perception**: The market may not fully appreciate IBM's growth flywheel, which combines R&D, M&A, and strong client relationships to drive efficiency and profitability [87][90]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue growth of 3% for 2024, with total revenue reaching approximately $63 billion [6][18] - Free cash flow for the year was $12.7 billion, marking the highest level of free cash flow generation in many years [6][18] - Operating pre-tax income was $11.2 billion, with operating earnings per share at $10.33, reflecting a 7% increase [18][22] - The operating pre-tax margin expanded by 120 basis points, contributing to a 9% growth in operating pre-tax profit and a 14% increase in free cash flow [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Software revenue grew by 9% for the full year, with a notable 11% growth in Q4, driven by strong performance in Red Hat, automation, data and AI, and transaction processing [18][20][24] - Consulting revenue was up 1% for the year but down 1% in Q4, impacted by a dynamic market environment [19][20][29] - Infrastructure revenue decreased by 3% for the year and 6% in Q4, reflecting product cycle dynamics, particularly with the Z16 mainframe [19][20][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The software segment now constitutes about 45% of the company's business, with over $15 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) growing at double digits [10][18] - The generative AI book of business grew to over $5 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately $2 billion [11][12] - The company reported strong signings and a healthy backlog, with an 8% year-over-year increase in backlog levels [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for revenue growth to inflect higher to 5% plus in 2025, supported by a strong portfolio and ongoing investments in innovation [16][36] - The focus remains on enhancing the software-led integrated platform, with expectations of approaching double-digit growth in software [36][37] - The company is actively pursuing M&A opportunities, particularly in a more favorable regulatory environment, to enhance its capabilities [51][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of technology in driving sustainable growth amid geopolitical tensions, interest rate volatility, and evolving cyber threats [9][81] - There is optimism in the business climate for 2025, with expectations of improved growth compared to 2024 [81] - The company anticipates that software budgets will remain a priority for clients, reinforcing confidence in revenue growth [83] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in R&D, with expenses up 13% year-over-year, reflecting a commitment to innovation [21][23] - The balance sheet remains strong, with cash of $14.8 billion and a reduction in debt by $1.6 billion to $55 billion [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide context around linearity for the 2025 guidance, particularly H1 versus H2? - Management indicated a strong portfolio execution in software, with expectations of a normal seasonal pattern, and noted that consulting growth may accelerate in the second half of the year [45][46] Question: What are the thoughts on M&A in a potentially lower regulatory environment? - Management expressed optimism about a more rational regulatory environment, which could facilitate reasonable deals, and indicated a willingness to pursue acquisitions that meet their criteria [51][52] Question: Can you highlight the confidence in consulting revenue recovery? - Management acknowledged the dynamic macroeconomic environment but expressed confidence in the consulting segment's growth potential, particularly driven by generative AI initiatives [60][62] Question: What software products are expected to stand out in the coming years? - Management highlighted the Watson X family and Red Hat products as key drivers of future software performance, emphasizing their role in enterprise AI deployments [63][64]