Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic LLDPE and PP markets generally showed a downward trend during the period from September 19 to October 14, 2025. Market sentiment was affected by factors such as futures trends, downstream demand, and cost support. Different factors had both positive and negative impacts on polyolefin investment, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed based on comprehensive analysis [1][8][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract price fluctuated, with a downward trend overall. LLDPE market prices in different regions showed partial declines, and market trading was weak, with end - users mainly making purchases based on rigid demand [1][8][11] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contract price also declined. The domestic PP market continued its downward trend, with trade mainly focused on negotiation, and overall trading volume was difficult to increase due to limited downstream new orders and low profit margins [1][8][11] Important Information - On October 9, 2025, China imposed export controls on some rare earth items, aiming to fulfill non - proliferation obligations and maintain peace, with limited impact on the supply chain. The US announced a 100% tariff increase on China and an upgrade of software controls on October 10, which China strongly opposed [1][5] - From 2024 to 2029, the global plastic additives consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, which is related to the output growth of plastic end - consumption fields and changing policies and regulations [9] - On October 1, 2025, the US federal government shut down due to a budget negotiation breakdown, causing an estimated weekly economic loss of about $15 billion [11] - Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promote high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [14] - During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petroleum and chemical industry promoted quality improvement through various means, which helped the high - quality development of the industry [16] Logical Analysis - **Positive Factors**: In August 2025, the electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastics industry increased for three consecutive months to 17.69 billion kWh, with a year - on - year increase of +8.9%, which was positive for polyolefin unilateral trading. The ratio of the Baltic Dry Index to the Baltic Crude Oil Freight Index increased by +8.5% year - on - year, showing an eight - month marginal strengthening trend, which was also positive for polyolefin unilateral trading. The US manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 points in August 2025, accelerating for three consecutive months, which was positive for L unilateral trading [2][6][9] - **Negative Factors**: In August 2025, the profit per unit of the domestic rubber and plastics industry decreased by - 11.1% year - on - year, with a continuous decline for 18 months, which was negative for polyolefin unilateral trading. Brent crude oil prices increased to $67.6 per barrel in September 2025, with a year - on - year decrease of - 7.5% but a five - month marginal increase, which was negative for L. In August 2025, domestic PE production increased for two consecutive months to 2.827 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of +16.4% and an eight - month marginal increase, which was negative for the L - PP spread [2][6][15] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Different strategies were proposed for the L and PP main 01 contracts at different times, including trial shorting, holding short positions, holding long positions, and taking a wait - and - see approach, with corresponding stop - loss levels set [2][6][9] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: For the L2601 - PP2601 spread, strategies included holding positions and waiting for opportunities to enter, with stop - loss levels set at the high points of specific periods [2][6][9] - **Options**: Generally, a wait - and - see approach was recommended [2][6][9]