L&PP 日报 【银河期货】塑料 PP 每日早盘观察（25-11-20） 塑料 L 及 PP：10 月化工品出厂价格下跌 【市场情况】 L 塑料相关：L2601 合约报收 6787 点，下跌-46 点或-0.67%。LLDPE 市场价格 部分下跌。华北大区线性部分跌 10-50 元/吨；华东大区线性部分跌 10-80 元/吨；华 南大区线性部分跌 20-100 元/吨。国内 LLDPE 市场主流价格在 6800-7400 元/吨。 线性期货小幅震荡走高，市场交投氛围未见明显支撑，石化企业下调部分牌号出厂价 格，贸易商随行就市波动报盘，下游观望情绪不减，整体采购意愿偏淡。 PP 聚丙烯相关：PP2601 合约报收 6381 点，下跌-53 点或-0.82%。PP 市场价格 窄幅弱调。PP 期货先跌后涨对现货市场氛围提振有限，部分生产企业厂价下调 20-30 元/吨，成本支撑走弱，贸易商报盘随行弱调。下游虽然开工率相对稳定，但备货意愿 不高，原料采购维持刚需，市场成交较前一工作日转淡。 【重要资讯】 援引国家统计局数据：2025 年 10 月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降 2.1%，购进价格同比下降 2.7% ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、俄油面临新制裁，油价反弹 • 2、中美会谈达成阶段性缓和 • 利空 • 1、需求同比偏弱 • 2、四季度新增投产多 • LLDPE概述： • 主要逻辑：供过于求，国内宏观政策 • 主要风险点：原油大幅波动、国际政策博弈 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的部 分限制措施，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，OPEC + 11 月12日将原油市场供不应求调整为供过于求，引发油价下跌。供需端，农 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的部 分限制措施，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，OPEC + 11 月12日将原油市场供不应求调整为供过于求，引发油价下跌。供需端，农膜旺季需求延续， 部分地区需求开始回落，其余膜类以刚需为主。当前LL交割品现货价6900（-0），基本面整体偏 空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差115，升贴水比例1.7%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存57.9万 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的部 分限制措施，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，OPEC + 11 月12日将原油市场供不应求调整为供过于求，引发油价下跌。供需端，农膜旺季需求延续， 部分地区需求开始回落，其余膜类以刚需为主。当前LL交割品现货价6900（-20），基本面整体 偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差57，升贴水比例0.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存57.9万 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的部 分限制措施，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，OPEC + 11 月12日将原油市场供不应求调整为供过于求，引发油价下跌。供需端，农膜旺季需求延续， 部分地区需求开始回落，其余膜类以刚需为主。当前LL交割品现货价6920（+70），基本面整体 偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差67，升贴水比例1.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存57.9万 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - The market conditions of L and PP plastics fluctuate daily, with prices showing various trends such as increases, decreases, and narrow - range movements. The supply and demand situation, along with factors like production capacity utilization, inventory, and external events, influence these price changes. [1][4] - Different factors, including economic indicators (e.g., PMI, GDP - related indices), industry - specific data (e.g., production ratios, import/export volumes), and geopolitical events, have both positive and negative impacts on the plastics market. [2][5] - The trading strategies for L and PP plastics vary daily, including suggestions like holding long or short positions, setting stop - loss points, and deciding on whether to engage in arbitrage or option trading. [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract price fluctuates, and the LLDPE market price shows different trends such as continuous weakening,涨跌互现, and partial increases or decreases. The trading atmosphere is often affected by factors like futures trends, with downstream procurement being cautious. [1][4] - **PP Plastic**: The PP2601 contract price also fluctuates. The PP market may be weak, narrow - moving, or show small increases or decreases. The relationship between futures and the spot market affects the price and trading volume, and downstream demand is generally cautious. [1][4] Important Information - **Industry Conferences and Policies**: Various industry - related conferences are held, summarizing achievements and looking forward to future plans. Policies are also introduced to promote the development of the petrochemical and chemical industries, such as the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". [1][50] - **Company Achievements**: Some companies achieve significant results, like PetroChina Huabei Petrochemical Company reaching a high production ratio of polypropylene special materials, and Guangxi Petrochemical's ethylene plant starting up successfully. [1][25] - **International and Geopolitical Events**: There are international events such as the potential military action of the US against Venezuela and the impact of US tariff policies on global enterprises. [59][62] Logical Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: The production capacity utilization rates of PE and PP change over time, with some periods of increase and others of decrease. The net import volumes of polyethylene and polypropylene also show different trends, affecting the market. [2][55] - **Economic Indicators**: Economic indicators such as the PMI of different countries, the global economic policy uncertainty index, and various industry - specific indices have impacts on the plastics market, either positively or negatively. [2][23] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggestions include holding long or short positions for L and PP main 01 contracts, and setting appropriate stop - loss points according to market conditions. [2][5] - **Arbitrage**: In most cases, it is recommended to wait and see, but there are also some specific suggestions for certain spreads. [2][5] - **Options**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see, with a few exceptions where specific option contracts are given trading suggestions. [2][5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today, with overall bearish fundamentals due to oversupply, high industrial inventories, and fluctuating crude oil prices. However, there are also some positive factors such as new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in Sino-US talks [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. Sino-US leaders held a meeting, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6820 (-10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 60, with a premium ratio of 0.9%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and Sino-US talks reach a phased easing [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October. Sino-US talks and OPEC+ decisions affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6470 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 41, with a premium ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [6]. - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and Sino-US talks reach a phased easing [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 11, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, concluding that both are likely to show a weak and volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, high - neutral industrial inventories, and fluctuating crude oil prices [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the China - US leaders' meeting, some restrictions on Chinese goods were lifted, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6800 (+30), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 28, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE's comprehensive inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with an oversupply situation, fluctuating crude oil prices, and high - neutral industrial inventories [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the China - US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points. After the China - US meeting, relevant measures were adjusted, and OPEC+ suspended production increases, causing oil price fluctuations. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 20, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PP's comprehensive inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with an oversupply situation, fluctuating crude oil prices, and high - neutral industrial inventories [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and the China - US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows data from 2018 - 2024 and an estimated capacity for 2025E. Over the years, capacity has been increasing, with a 20.5% estimated growth in 2025E. Import dependence has generally decreased, and consumption growth has fluctuated [13]. - **Polypropylene**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows data from 2018 - 2024 and an estimated capacity for 2025E. Capacity has been growing steadily, with an 11.0% estimated growth in 2025E. Import dependence has also decreased over time [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report date: November 10, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [4]. - On October 30, China - US leaders met, with the US canceling some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspending 301 investigations in maritime and logistics fields for one year, and China adjusting counter - measures accordingly. OPEC + announced a suspension of production increase in Q1 2026, leading to oil price fluctuations [4]. - The peak - season demand for agricultural films continues with high - level operation, while inventory preparation for other films is gradually ending. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6800 (+50), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Other Indicators - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is - 2, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.0%, neutral [4]. - PE comprehensive inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), bearish [4]. - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4]. Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. With oversupply in fundamentals, fluctuating crude oil prices, and moderately high industrial inventory, PE is expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. Factors Influencing LLDPE - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Phased easing achieved in China - US talks [5]. - Bearish factors: Weak year - on - year demand; Many new projects put into production in Q4 [5]. - Main logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, in October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the China - US meeting and OPEC + production suspension also affected the market. The demand for plastic woven products is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6500 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Other Indicators - The basis of PP 2601 contract is 36, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.6%, bullish [6]. - PP comprehensive inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), bearish [6]. - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6]. - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [6]. Outlook - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Given oversupply in fundamentals, fluctuating crude oil prices, and moderately high industrial inventory, PP is expected to fluctuate weakly today [6]. Factors Influencing PP - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Phased easing achieved in China - US talks [7]. - Bearish factors: Weak year - on - year demand; Many new projects put into production in Q4 [7]. - Main logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - For LLDPE, the spot delivery product price is 6800 (+50), the 01 contract price is 6802 (- 3), etc. [8] - For PP, the spot delivery product price is 6500 (0), the 01 contract price is 6464 (- 7), etc. [8] Inventory Data - LLDPE: Warehouse receipts are 12,669 (0 change), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 540,000 tons, and social inventory is 510,000 tons [8]. - PP: Warehouse receipts are 14,629 (0 change), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 600,000 tons, and social inventory is 333,000 tons [8] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polyethylene showed different trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4,319,500 tons with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene also changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4,906,000 tons with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment is changeable, causing greater fluctuations in polyolefins. The decline in crude oil weakens the cost - side drive. With large - scale capacity investment and high output, the supply side faces significant pressure. The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, demand falls short of expectations, and the end of the peak season and insufficient new orders may affect the continuous improvement of subsequent operations. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to run weakly. Futures should be operated bearishly on a single - side basis, and straddle options should be sold [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 470,000 tons, with inventory expected to change from rising to falling. The new Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased production, putting pressure on producers, who have an expectation of active de - stocking. The downstream factory operating rate is also expected to rise, and low prices are more attractive. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 580,000 tons, a decrease from the current period. Upstream enterprises are actively de - stocking, and the Double Eleven e - commerce festival drives downstream demand [6]. - **Supply**: This week, plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Zhongtian Hechuang are planned to restart, and new plants of Sinopec Korea and Zhongsha Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. Coupled with the continuous increase in production from newly - invested plants, the domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. Some producers are still resuming operations, and the estimated loss volume continues to decline. Additionally, the 400,000 - ton/year new plant of Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II will start mass - production and sales soon, so the polypropylene output is expected to increase [6]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly. The greenhouse film is still in the production peak season, but due to the gradual contraction of demand after the Frost's Descent, orders are mainly short - term small ones. The operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily, but after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profits of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP are slightly in the red, and the loss of PDH - based PP is relatively large. The cost - side support is weakening [6]. 3.2 PP Single - Side Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. The price shows a downward trend, and as of November 6th, it was 6,471 yuan. The logic is that the new PP production capacity in 2025 is still large, and downstream demand remains weak. PP is expected to be relatively weak in the medium - to - long - term. The operation suggestion is to hold short positions [7]. 3.3 L - P Arbitrage Strategy - Strategy: Long the L - P spread (on hold). The price shows a volatile trend. For the 2601 contract, as of November 6th, it was 334 yuan. The driving force is not strong, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.4 Supply Side - **PE Production**: The domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The plastic industry has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12.8%. In 2024, the capacity base was 3.571 million tons, and the new capacity was 340,000 tons. In 2025, the planned new PE production capacity is 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [6][83][90]. - **PP Production**: The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. In 2024, China's PP realized production capacity was about 3.45 million tons, with a capacity base of 4.321 million tons, an 8.6% increase from 2023. In 2025, the planned new PP production capacity is 1.2805 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume is relatively limited [6][89][91]. 3.5 Demand Side - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly, and the operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily. However, after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations. The report also presents data on the operating rates of various downstream industries of PE and PP, as well as the production and export volumes of related products such as plastics, automobiles, and home appliances [6][94].