徐绍祖（联系人） 供应端压力尚存， 需求端低位企稳 聚烯烃周报 2025/08/16 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 聚烯烃周度策略 ◆ 政策端：国内宏观情绪高涨，上证指数突破3600点大关，资本市场情绪转暖。 ◆ 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（成本＞期货＞现货），聚丙烯周度涨幅（成本＞期货＞现货）。 ◆ 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-2.64%，Brent原油下跌-1.88%，煤价上涨2.82%，甲醇下跌-0.41%，乙烯上涨3.93%，丙烯上涨3.19%， 丙烷无变动0.00%。成本端支撑松动。 ◆ 供应端：PE产能利用率84.72 %，环比上涨1.53%，同比去年上涨2.26%，较5年同期下降-5.72%。PP产能利用率78.80 %，环比上 涨0.74%，同比去年上 ...

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated August 8, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the macro - driven growth has subsided, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, and downstream demand is weak with neutral industrial inventory. For PP, the macro - driven growth has also declined, and downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak with neutral industrial inventory [4][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote the stable growth of key industries including the petrochemical industry. However, the short - term price increase driven by anti - involution sentiment has subsided, and oil prices have also fallen. It's the off - season for agricultural film, and demand for other film types is flat, with many downstream enterprises under maintenance. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7270 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 27, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.7 million tons (+1.4), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy promotion [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro environment shows a decline in the manufacturing PMI. The short - term price increase has subsided, and oil prices have fallen. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and industries such as pipes and plastic weaving are weak due to summer weather. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7100 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 25, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.7 million tons (+0.6), which is bearish [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy promotion [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing over the years. The consumption growth rate has shown fluctuations, with a 1.4% increase in 2024 [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been rising, with an expected 11.0% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has also decreased, and the consumption growth rate has varied, reaching 8.4% in 2024 [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with cost support as a positive factor and weak demand as a negative factor. It is expected to show a volatile trend today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies, the off - season of agricultural film demand, and weak downstream demand [4][6]. - For PP, the overall fundamentals are also neutral, with cost support as a positive factor and weak demand in sectors like pipes and plastic weaving as a negative factor. It is also expected to show a volatile trend today considering the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies and weak downstream demand [7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth - stabilizing plan. The short - term increase pulled by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. In the supply - demand aspect, it is the off - season for agricultural films, and other film demands are flat with many downstream enterprises under maintenance. The current spot price of the LLDPE delivery product is 7270 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 53, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies, the off - season of agricultural film demand, and weak downstream demand [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term increase pulled by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. In the supply - demand aspect, it is the off - season for downstream demand, and affected by high temperature and heavy rain in summer, the demands for pipes and plastic weaving are weak. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 7100 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 5, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 tons (-1.6), showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies and weak downstream demand in pipes and plastic weaving [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [9]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7270 (-30), and prices of different futures contracts such as the 09 contract, L01, L05, etc. have corresponding changes. The basis of the 09 contract is - 53 (-74). The warehouse receipt is 5816 (0), and there are details about import prices and spreads [10]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7100 (-50), and prices of different futures contracts such as the 09 contract, PP01, PP05, etc. have corresponding changes. The basis of the 09 contract is 5 (-71). The warehouse receipt is 12305 (0), and there are details about import prices and spreads [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and other indicators have changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4319.5 with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and other indicators have changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906 with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated August 5, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to adjust the structure of key industries. However, the short - term price increase driven by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. Currently, the spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7300 (-40), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4] Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 21, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [4] Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), also neutral [4] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4] Expectations - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The price increase driven by macro - stability policies has subsided, it is the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral [4] Influential Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factor: weak demand. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, in July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term price increase and oil prices have declined. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak due to summer weather [7] Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 76, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, considered bullish [7] Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), showing a bearish trend [7] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, also bearish [7] Expectations - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. The price increase driven by macro - stability policies has subsided, downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral [7] Influential Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factor: weak demand. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been gradually decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate has generally been positive [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Plastic - Maintains a weak reality, expected to fluctuate within a range. The 2509 contract of plastic is expected to trade within the short - term range of 7200 - 7500, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. PP - Faces significant trend pressure, short - term oscillation is weak. The PP2509 is expected to trade within the range of 6900 - 7200 in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 1st, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7317 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last month, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%. LDPE average price was 9516.67 yuan/ton, down 0.52% month - on - month; HDPE average price was 7975 yuan/ton, down 1.69% month - on - month; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7508.24 yuan/ton, down 0.31% month - on - month. The LLDPE South China basis was 191.24 yuan/ton, down 29.37% month - on - month, and the 6 - 9 month spread was 111 yuan/ton (+81). The basis shrank and the month spread widened [5][8]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 67.26 US dollars/barrel this week, up 2.29 US dollars/barrel from last month; Brent crude oil closed at 69.52 US dollars/barrel, up 2.89 US dollars/barrel from last month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (+20). The profit of oil - based PE was - 490 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from last month; the profit of coal - based PE was 1195 yuan/ton, down 358 yuan/ton from last month. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE will run weakly and the profit of coal - based PE will run strongly [5][18][23]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 81.09%, up 4.65 percentage points from last month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 63.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.32%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level this week. The maintenance loss this week was 9.14 tons, down 2.21 tons from last week [5][26]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 12.63%, up 0.28% from last month; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 48.70%, down 0.74% from last month; the operating rate of PE pipes was 28.67%, down 0.34% from last month [5][30]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.17 tons at the end of this month, up 9.70 tons from the end of last month, a month - on - month increase of 20.87% [5][35]. Main Operating Logic - In July, affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution, coal and downstream commodities rose significantly, driving the PE market to rebound. But as the sentiment cooled, the market price corrected, and the market trading returned to fundamentals. There was new production capacity put into operation in July, and the production capacity will continue to increase in the second half of the year, so the supply pressure remains high. The maintenance loss this month remained at a high level but showed an obvious decline. The operating rate of downstream agricultural film is expected to increase due to the approaching peak season of plastic film. The operating rates of protective film and pipes remain stable. The low - level social inventory provides some support to the market [5]. PP Market Changes - On August 1st, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7098 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from last month. The spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 7290 yuan/ton (+0.16%) [6][43][48]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 67.26 US dollars/barrel this week, up 2.29 US dollars/barrel from last month; Brent crude oil closed at 69.52 US dollars/barrel, up 2.89 US dollars/barrel from last month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (+20). The profit of oil - based PP was - 473.06 yuan/ton, down 14.35 yuan/ton from last month; the profit of coal - based PP was 684.71 yuan/ton, down 347.77 yuan/ton from last month [6][56][60]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.94%, down 0.50 percentage points from last month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.50 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.39% [6][64]. - **Demand**: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 48.40% (+0.03). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 41.10% (-2.00), the operating rate of BOPP was 60.80% (+0%), the operating rate of injection molding was 55.80% (+0.22%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.17% (-0.30%) [6][70]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 56.48 tons (-2.72%); the inventory of two major oil companies decreased by 5.44% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 4.02% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 7.14% month - on - month [6][75]. Main Operating Logic - In July, affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution, coal and downstream commodities rose significantly, driving the PP market to rebound. But as the sentiment cooled, the market price corrected, and the market trading returned to fundamentals. Although there were intensive maintenance activities in July, they were not enough to relieve the supply pressure. The operating rates of downstream industries such as plastic weaving fluctuated slightly, and the demand remained weak. It is expected that the PP market will be mainly driven by fundamentals, and the PP2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a steady - growth plan for key industries including the petrochemical industry [4]. - Supply - Demand: It's the off - season for agricultural films, and the demand for packaging films has slightly improved. Overall, downstream demand is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7350 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 0, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. Driven by the macro steady - growth plan, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. Influential Factors - Bullish: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [6] - Bearish: Weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a steady - growth plan on July 18 [7]. - Supply - Demand: It's the off - season for downstream demand. Affected by high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall, the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), showing a bearish trend [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is oscillating. Driven by the macro steady - growth plan, downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will oscillate today [7]. Influential Factors - Bullish: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [8] - Bearish: Weak demand [8] - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [8] Market Data LLDPE - Spot: The price of LLDPE spot delivery products is 7350 (-50), the import US dollar price is 835 (0), the import conversion price is 7386 (7), and the import price difference is -36 (-57) [9]. - Futures: The price of the LLDPE 09 contract is 7350 (-37), the basis is 0 (-13), and the prices of other contracts (L01, L05) also have corresponding changes [9]. - Inventory: The number of LLDPE warehouse receipts is 5816 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), and the PE social inventory is 56.2 million tons (0.3) [9] PP - Spot: The price of PP spot delivery products is 7150 (0), the import US dollar price is 860 (0), the import conversion price is 7603 (7), and the import price difference is -453 (-7) [9]. - Futures: The price of the PP 09 contract is 7118 (-27), the basis is 32 (27), and the prices of other contracts (PP01, PP05) also have corresponding changes [9]. - Inventory: The number of PP warehouse receipts is 12625 (-70), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), and the PP social inventory is 27.3 million tons (-0.1) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc., of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year [14]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc., of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. For LLDPE, the market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion, but demand is weak. For PP, it has similar factors with LLDPE, including cost support and macro - policy push, while facing weak demand [4][6][7][8] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. Caixin PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, back above the critical point. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a steady - growth plan. The downstream demand is weak overall, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film slightly improved. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7370 (+110), and the fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 86, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.2%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - steady growth plan, with weak downstream demand and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI and Caixin PMI showed certain trends. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high temperature and heavy rain in summer, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7200 (+20), and the fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 21, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - steady growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected to fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [8] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [8] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7370 (+110), the price of the 09 contract is 7456 (+71), the basis is - 86 (+39), the warehouse receipt is 5816 (-6), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 56.3 tons, and the social inventory is 55.8 tons [9] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7200 (+20), the price of the 09 contract is 7221 (+40), the basis is - 21 (-20), the warehouse receipt is 12635 (0), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 58.1 tons, and the social inventory is 27.4 tons [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. showed different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. also had different changes. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year [16]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, the market is expected to be volatile today. Although the plastic main contract is rebounding, driven by the macro - stable growth plan, the demand in the agricultural film off - season and weak downstream demand, along with neutral industrial inventory, will affect the market [4]. - For PP, the main contract is also rebounding, but due to weak demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, the market is expected to be volatile today [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a stable growth plan. The downstream demand is weak overall, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film slightly improved. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (+0), and the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 125, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.7%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and macro - policy promotion; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in the macro - aspect. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (+0), and the fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 1, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.0%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and macro - policy promotion; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [8]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures**: For LLDPE, the spot delivery product price is 7260 (unchanged), and the 09 - contract price is 7385 (+97). For PP, the spot delivery product price is 7180 (unchanged), and the 09 - contract price is 7181 (+85) [9]. - **Inventory**: LLDPE's comprehensive factory inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), and PP's comprehensive factory inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption showed different growth trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption also had various growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with cost and demand in a state of game - playing, and the market is affected by tariff policies. The expected trend for both PE and PP today is oscillatory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production - increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. It's the off - season for agricultural films, downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -24, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 tons (+5.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and production pressure still exist. With neutral industrial inventory, PE is expected to oscillate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new capacity launches and weak demand are bearish factors [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI and an increase in OPEC production. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and the current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-0). The overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 113, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.6%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.1), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory suggest an oscillatory trend for PP today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, and weak demand is a bearish factor [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown various trends. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [17].

Report Date and Title - The report is titled "Polyolefin Morning Report" dated July 14, 2025 [2] LLDPE Overview Fundamental Analysis - In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. In the supply - demand side, it's the off - season for agricultural films, and the downstream of packaging films is weak, with most enterprises reducing their loads. There is still pressure from new capacity coming online. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7280 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 11, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.2%, neutral [4] Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (+54,000), bearish [4] Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4] Main Position - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and upcoming production pressure still exist. The industrial inventory is neutral [4] Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factors: new capacity launch and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [6] PP Overview Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7] Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 111, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.6%, bullish [7] Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 581,000 tons (+11,000), bearish [7] Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [7] Main Position - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and production pressure still exist. The industrial inventory is neutral [7] Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factor: weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [9] Market Data Spot and Futures - For LLDPE, the spot delivery product price is 7280, and the 09 contract price is 7291. For PP, the spot delivery product price is 7180, and the 09 contract price is 7069 [10] Inventory - PE comprehensive inventory is 554,000 tons, and PP comprehensive inventory is 581,000 tons [4][7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity has been increasing, with growth rates from 5.1% - 19.0%. The import dependence has shown a downward trend from 48.1% in 2019 to 32.9% in 2024. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity has been growing, with growth rates from 8.4% - 19.0%. The import dependence has also decreased from 19.3% in 2020 to 9.5% in 2024. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 [17]