Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: March 27, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, with the external crude oil market shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. Inventory levels are neutral, and downstream demand is recovering [4][7]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iranian situation has caused short - term weakness in external crude oil, shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. In the supply - demand aspect, the spring plowing has started, and the demand for mulch film is good, but high - priced raw materials have led to a wait - and - see attitude among enterprises for inventory procurement. The packaging film demand is mainly based on rigid needs due to price increases, and the operating rate and orders in the pipe industry are low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8550 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 217, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 64.4 tons (+2.1), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, the external crude oil market is volatile, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues, and the main risk points are significant crude oil price fluctuations and international policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iranian situation has caused short - term weakness in external crude oil, shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. In the supply - demand aspect, multiple PDH units have shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises have low production willingness due to poor profit margins. The operating rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream customers are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 9050 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 70, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.8%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 50.0 tons (-9.7), which is bullish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, the external crude oil market is volatile, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues, and the main risk points are significant crude oil price fluctuations and international policy games [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 8550 (+150), the price of the 05 contract is 8767 (+52), the basis is - 217 (+98), the warehouse receipt is 4429 (-223), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 64.4 (+2.1) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 9050 (+150), the price of the 05 contract is 9120 (+145), the basis is - 70 (+5), the warehouse receipt is 13013 (-280), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 50.0 (-9.7) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally increased. The import dependence has decreased, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, the start - up rate continues to decline, and raw material prices are adjusted under negative feedback. For PP, C3 raw materials fluctuate greatly, and the basis is weakly stable. Geopolitical factors affect raw material prices, and cost - transmission and supply - demand relationships need attention [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For L2605, the closing price is 8767 with a daily increase of 0.60%, trading volume of 1026968, and a change in open interest of 2213. For PP2605, the closing price is 9120 with a daily increase of 1.62%, trading volume of 1360322, and a change in open interest of 4112. The 05 - contract basis for L2605 is - 317, and for PP2605 is - 220. The 05 - 09 contract spread for L2605 is 135, and for PP2605 is 311 [1] - **Spot Price**: In North China, the LLDPE spot price is 8450 yuan/ton, and PP is 8900 yuan/ton. In East China, LLDPE is 8550 yuan/ton, and PP is 8900 yuan/ton. In South China, LLDPE is 8750 yuan/ton, and PP is 9050 yuan/ton [1] - **Start - up Rate**: The weekly start - up rate of PE is 76% (- 4%), and it is expected to drop below 75%. The weekly start - up rate of PP has slightly declined to 70% (- 0.5%), and it may drop to 65% [1] Spot News - The start - up rate of PE and PP has declined. The basis is stable, and trading is weaker than the previous day [1] Market Condition Analysis - **LLDPE**: Geopolitical factors lead to a strong performance of raw materials like naphtha, increasing PE costs. After the festival, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the start - up rate of packaging film has rebounded. The supply side has new production and more maintenance plans, with a decline in standard product production and inventory reduction [2] - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between supply and demand of existing products intensifies. Downstream demand has improved, but PDH profit is at a low level, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, and that of PP is 1 [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: March 26, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today due to the impact of the Iran situation on oil prices, the transition of the external crude oil market to a volatile state, neutral inventory levels, and the recovery of downstream demand [4][7] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - The official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation led to a short - term weakening of external crude oil, shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. In terms of supply and demand, the spring plowing has started, and the demand for mulch film is good, but high - priced raw materials have made enterprises hesitant about restocking. The packaging film market is mainly driven by rigid demand due to price increases, and the pipe industry has low operating rates and orders. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8400 (-550), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -315, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.6%, which is bearish [4] Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 64.4 tons (+2.1), which is bearish [4] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] Main Positions - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Expectations - The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today [4] Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations [6] - Bearish factors: geopolitical factors [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - The official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation led to a short - term weakening of external crude oil, shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. In terms of supply and demand, multiple PDH units have stopped for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic woven products has increased, but low production profits have reduced enterprises' willingness to start production. The operating rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream customers are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8900 (-350), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] Basis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -75, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.8%, which is bearish [7] Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 50.0 tons (-9.7), which is bullish [7] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] Main Positions - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [7] Expectations - The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today [7] Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations [8] - Bearish factors: geopolitical factors and international policy games [8] Market Data LLDPE - Spot delivery product price: 8400 (-550) - 05 contract price: 8715 (-203) - Basis: -315 (-347) - Warehouse receipt: 4652 (-14) - PE comprehensive factory inventory: 64.4 (+2.1) - PE social inventory: 60.7 (-1.2) [9] PP - Spot delivery product price: 8900 (-350) - 05 contract price: 8975 (-139) - Basis: -75 (-211) - Warehouse receipt: 13293 (-2434) - PP comprehensive factory inventory: 50.0 (-9.7) - PP social inventory: 28.5 (-2.2) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally increased. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, derivatives reduction continues to materialize, and cost transmission is poor. PE cost is rising due to geopolitical factors affecting raw materials, and supply - side changes such as production cuts and reduced standard product production are occurring, with attention on geopolitical persistence and cost transmission [1][2]. - For PP, C3 raw materials have strong support, but spot price increases are slow. Cost support is strong due to supply disturbances, and there is a high level of PDH maintenance. The game between existing supply and demand intensifies, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For L2605, the closing price was 9523, with a daily increase of 8.00%, trading volume of 1195591, and a position change of 36927. For PP2605, the closing price was 9793, with a daily increase of 8.58%, trading volume of 1294173, and a position change of 37873. The 05 - contract basis for L2605 was - 573 (previous day - 418), and for PP2605 was - 493 (previous day - 319). The 05 - 09 contract spread for L2605 was 211 (previous day 214), and for PP2605 was 499 (previous day 433) [1]. - **Spot Price**: In the North, the LLDPE spot price was 8950 yuan/ton (previous day 8400), and PP was 9300 yuan/ton (previous day 8650). In the East, LLDPE was 9200 yuan/ton (previous day 8500), and PP was 9300 yuan/ton (previous day 8700). In the South, LLDPE was 9200 yuan/ton (previous day 8600), and PP was 9600 yuan/ton (previous day 8850) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - For PE, Maoming Petrochemical's full - density production stopped over the weekend, with the operating rate dropping to 78%, and standard product production remaining low. External naphtha - using devices plan to reduce production and conduct maintenance from late March to April, and the PE operating rate may drop to around 70%. For PP, South Korea - China and Zhenhai's PP production stopped, and Juzhengyuan restarted with externally sourced propylene. The PP operating rate remained at 71%, and there are still many PDH maintenance plans, with PDH profits hitting new lows. The basis continued to weaken, cost transmission was poor, and the US dollar price increased by 20 - 30 dollars [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **LLDPE**: Geopolitical tensions are escalating, causing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and affecting logistics. Naphtha and other raw materials are expected to be strong, raising PE costs. After the holiday, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the operating rate of packaging film has increased, but cost transmission takes time. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has started mass production, and there are increasing maintenance and production - reduction plans in March, with standard product production decreasing and inventory starting to decline [2]. - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance remains high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, downstream industries have resumed work intensively, and demand has improved month - on - month. PDH profits remain low, and many PDH devices in South China have not resumed operation after maintenance. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices [2]. 3.4 Futures Research - The trend strength of LLDPE is 1, and that of PP is 1 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, the cracking supply is shrinking and cost transmission is poor. For PP, the supply is limited, exports are favorable, and the risk - free window for futures and spot has opened [1]. - Geopolitical situation is escalating, affecting the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to strengthen raw materials like naphtha, raising the cost of PE. The demand for mulch film after the festival is in line with the season, and the packaging film production has recovered, but cost transmission takes time. For PP, C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance is still high [2]. - The supply - demand game for PP has intensified. The downstream has resumed work intensively, and the demand has improved month - on - month. The PDH profit remains at a low level, and multiple PDH units in South China are still under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH units [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 8818, with a daily decline of 1.10%. The trading volume was 1103490, and the open interest decreased by 20434. The 05 - contract basis was - 418 (compared to - 516 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 214 (compared to 235 the previous day). The spot prices in North, East, and South China were 8400, 8500, and 8600 yuan/ton respectively, with the South China price dropping from 8700 yuan/ton the previous day [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 9019, with a daily decline of 1.52%. The trading volume was 1310098, and the open interest decreased by 29253. The 05 - contract basis was - 319 (compared to - 388 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 433 (compared to 513 the previous day). The spot prices in North, East, and South China were 8650, 8700, and 8850 yuan/ton respectively, with the North and East China prices dropping from 8750 and 8770 yuan/ton the previous day [1]. Spot News - For polyolefins, the PE external naphtha units have begun to give concentrated maintenance plans from late March to April, and the PE operating rate may drop below 70%. Zhongsha and Zhongying HD stopped production today. Zhenhai PP stopped production, and the PP operating rate dropped below 70% again. There are still many planned PDH maintenance, and the PDH profit has reached a new low. The basis has continued to weaken, cost transmission is poor, downstream terminals have not accepted the order price adjustment, manufacturers have lowered the ex - factory price, and the North China delivery window has continued to open [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **PE**: Geopolitical situation is escalating, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is stagnant, and raw materials like naphtha are expected to be strong, raising the cost of PE. After the festival, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the packaging film production has recovered, but cost transmission takes time. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has achieved mass production, the planned maintenance and production reduction in March are increasing, the production of standard products has declined, and inventory has started to be depleted. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical persistence and cost transmission [2]. - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the supply - demand game for existing suppliers has intensified. The downstream has resumed work intensively, and the demand has improved month - on - month. The PDH profit remains at a low level, multiple PDH units in South China are still under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH units [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, and the trend intensity of PP is 1 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a strong trend today. The main reasons include the geopolitical situation in the Middle East disturbing oil prices, the strength of the external crude oil market, neutral inventory levels, and the recovery of downstream demand [4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted, and many countries releasing strategic reserves, leading to a continuous strong external crude oil market. On the supply - demand side, the spring plowing demand for agricultural films has started, but high - priced raw materials have led to many downstream enterprises waiting and low trading volume. Packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, with limited improvement. The operating rate of the pipe industry remains low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8500 (+200), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 416, with a premium - discount ratio of - 4.7%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 623,000 tons (- 2000), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main positions**: The main positions of LLDPE are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. With the Iranian situation disturbing oil prices, the strong external crude oil market, neutral inventory, and the recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that PE will show a strong trend today [4] - **Likely factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [6] - **Negative factors**: Geopolitical factors. The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policies [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted, and many countries releasing strategic reserves, leading to a continuous strong external crude oil market. On the supply - demand side, multiple PDH units have stopped for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic braiding has increased, but enterprises are cautious in production due to poor profits. The operating rate of bopp has decreased abnormally, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8850 (+200), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 308, with a premium - discount ratio of - 3.4%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 596,000 tons (- 61,000), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main positions**: The main positions of PP are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. With the Iranian situation disturbing oil prices, the strong external crude oil market, neutral inventory, and the recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that PP will show a strong trend today [7] - **Likely factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [8] - **Negative factors**: Geopolitical factors. The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [8] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 8500 (+200), the price of the 05 contract is 8916 (+485), the basis is - 416 (- 285), the warehouse receipt is 7081 (- 770), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 623,000 tons (- 2000), and the social PE inventory is 619,000 tons (- 44,000) [9] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 8850 (+200), the price of the 05 contract is 9158 (+530), the basis is - 308 (- 330), the warehouse receipt is 15710 (- 1900), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 596,000 tons (- 61,000), and the social PP inventory is 307,000 tons (- 17,000) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024. The net import volume and import dependence have fluctuated, and the apparent consumption has generally increased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024. The net import volume and import dependence have decreased. The apparent consumption has generally increased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - LLDPE faces a situation where cracking supply contracts, and downstream users resist high prices. For PP, the supply of multiple raw materials is restricted, and exports continue to be favorable [1]. - Geopolitical issues remain unresolved, affecting the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to strengthen the performance of naphtha and raise the cost of PE. There is an expected improvement in the demand for mulch film after the holiday, and the packaging film industry will gradually recover after the Lantern Festival. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has achieved mass - production, with an increasing number of maintenance and load - reduction plans in March, a decline in standard product production, and a large inventory accumulation during the holiday [2]. - For PP, C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, providing strong cost support. PDH maintenance is still at a high level. There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream industries are expected to resume work in a concentrated manner, with a month - on - month improvement in demand. PDH profit remains low, and multiple PDH units in South China have not resumed operation, so the marginal changes in cracking and PDH units should be closely monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For L2605, the closing price was 8496, with a daily decline of 2.09%, trading volume of 1102531, and a decrease of 11231 in positions. For PP2605, the closing price was 8671, with a daily decline of 2.10%, trading volume of 1176087, and a decrease of 42481 in positions [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 05 - contract basis for L2605 was - 296 (compared to - 327 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 294 (compared to 305 the previous day). For PP2605, the 05 - contract basis was - 121 (compared to - 207 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 492 (compared to 551 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In the North China region, the LLDPE spot price dropped from 8350 to 8200, and the PP spot price dropped from 8650 to 8500. In the East China region, the LLDPE spot price dropped from 8550 to 8350, and the PP spot price dropped from 8650 to 8550. In the South China region, the LLDPE spot price dropped from 8650 to 8500, and the PP spot price dropped from 8750 to 8650 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - For polyolefins, the HD production of Daqing and Baolai and the full - density production of Lanzhou Petrochemical have stopped, causing the PE operating rate to decline to around 80%. For PP, Yulong, Zhongjing, and Yanchang Zhongmei have resumed production, with the operating rate slightly rebounding from a low level, and there are new maintenance plans for Zhonghan and Zhongying in late March. The basis continues to be weak, the downstream operating rate of agricultural mulch film is the same as the same period, and the finished - product inventory of factories and dealers is low. If the spot price remains stable, the cost can be smoothly passed on [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, and that of PP is also 1 [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: March 18, 2026 - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be strong today due to factors such as cost support, strong external crude oil prices, and the recovery of downstream demand [4][7] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted. Many countries have confirmed the release of strategic reserves, and external crude oil prices are continuously strong. On the supply and demand side, the demand for agricultural films has started, but high - priced raw materials have led to a large number of downstream enterprises waiting and limited transactions. Packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, with limited improvement. The operating rate of pipes remains low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8300 (-100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -196, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.3%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 625,000 tons (+31,000), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, external crude oil is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PE will trend strongly today [4] - **Leveraging Factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [6] - **Negative Factors**: Geopolitical factors [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted. Many countries have confirmed the release of strategic reserves, and external crude oil prices are continuously strong. On the supply and demand side, multiple PDH units have been shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises are cautious in production due to poor profits. The operating rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8700 (-150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 29, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 658,000 tons (+3,000), which is neutral [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, external crude oil is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PP will trend strongly today [7] - **Leveraging Factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [8] - **Negative Factors**: Geopolitical factors and international policy games [8] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 8300 (-100), the price of the 05 contract is 8496 (-181), the basis is -196, the import price in US dollars is 866 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7337 (unchanged), and the import price difference is 963 (-100). The warehouse receipt is 7851 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 625,000 tons, and the social inventory is 619,000 tons (-44,000) [9] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 8700 (-150), the price of the 05 contract is 8671 (-186), the basis is 29, the import price in US dollars is 1180 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 9943 (unchanged), and the import price difference is -1243 (-150). The warehouse receipt is 17,670 (-1757), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 658,000 tons, and the social inventory is 312,000 tons (-12,000) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a significant increase of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has shown a downward trend, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with an expected increase of 11.0% in 2025E. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: March 16, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Core Views - LLDPE: The overall fundamentals are bullish, with the main contract's disk expected to continue strengthening. Due to the Iran situation disturbing oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PE will show a strong trend today [4]. - PP: The overall fundamentals are bullish, with the main contract's disk expected to continue strengthening. Affected by the Iran situation and strong external crude oil, with neutral inventory and recovering downstream demand, it is expected that PP will show a strong trend today [7]. Industry Analysis LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation in the Middle East remains unresolved, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is basically interrupted, and many countries confirm to release strategic reserves, leading to a continuous strong external crude oil. In terms of supply and demand, the spring plowing demand for agricultural films has started, but high - priced raw materials have led to many downstream enterprises waiting and less transactions. Packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, with limited improvement. The starting rate of pipes remains low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8250 (-200) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -166, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.5 tons (+3.1), neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Leverage and Risk**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues. The main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policies [6]. PP - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation in the Middle East remains unresolved, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is basically interrupted, and many countries confirm to release strategic reserves, leading to a continuous strong external crude oil. In terms of supply and demand, multiple PDH units are shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises are cautious in production due to poor profits. The starting rate of bopp has decreased abnormally, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8650 (+0) [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 47, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.5%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.8 tons (+0.3), neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Leverage and Risk**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues. The main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [8]. Market Data LLDPE | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product Price | 8250, change: -200 [9] | | LL Import US Dollar Price | 856, change: 0 [9] | | LL Import Conversion Price | 7226, change: 0 [9] | | LL Import Price Difference | 1024, change: -200 [9] | | 05 Contract Price | 8416, change: 180 [9] | | L01 Contract Price | 7866, change: 147 [9] | | L05 Contract Price | 8416, change: 180 [9] | | L09 Contract Price | 8145, change: 211 [9] | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | 7901, change: -200 [9] | | PE Comprehensive Factory Warehouse Inventory | 62.5 [9] | | PE Social Inventory | 66.3 [9] | PP | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product Price | 8650, change: 0 [9] | | PP Import US Dollar Price | 1180, change: 0 [9] | | PP Import Conversion Price | 9904, change: 0 [9] | | PP Import Price Difference | -1254, change: 0 [9] | | 05 Contract Price | 8603, change: 300 [9] | | PP01 Contract Price | 7646, change: 198 [9] | | PP05 Contract Price | 8603, change: 300 [9] | | PP09 Contract Price | 8068, change: 317 [9] | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | 19427, change: -240 [9] | | PP Comprehensive Factory Warehouse Inventory | 65.8 [9] | | PP Social Inventory | 32.4 [9] | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Polyethylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PE Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 1869.5 | 1599.84 | 1379.72 | 46.3% | 2979.56 | 39.55 | 2979.56 | | | 2019 | | 1964.5 | 5.1% | 1765.08 | 1638.16 | 48.1% | 3403.24 | 36.61 | 3406.18 | 14.3% | | 2020 | | 2314.5 | 17.8% | 2008.47 | 1828.16 | 47.7% | 3836.63 | 37.83 | 3835.41 | 12.6% | | 2021 | | 2754.5 | 19.0% | 2328.34 | 1407.76 | 37.7% | 3736.1 | 37.57 | 3736.36 | -2.6% | | 2022 | | 2929.5 | 6.4% | 2532.19 | 1274.55 | 33.5% | 3806.74 | 38.93 | 3805.38 | 1.8% | | 2023 | | 3189.5 | 8.9% | 2807.37 | 1264.72 | 31.1% | 4072.09 | 41.43 | 4069.59 | 6.9% | | 2024 | | 3584.5 | 12.4% | 2773.8 | 1360.32 | 32.9% | 4134.12 | 47.8 | 4127.75 | 1.4% | | 2025E | | 4319.5 | 20.5% | | | | | | | [14] Polypropylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to trend stronger today due to factors such as cost support, rising external crude oil prices, neutral inventory, and recovering downstream demand, despite some negative factors like a negative basis and net - short main positions [4]. - The PP market is also expected to trend stronger today, with cost support, rising external crude oil prices, neutral inventory, and recovering downstream demand, although there are negative factors such as net - short and increasing short positions in the main contract [7]. Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation in the Middle East is tense with the Strait of Hormuz shipping mostly disrupted. Many countries will release strategic reserves, and external crude oil rose at night. In the supply - demand side, downstream agricultural film enterprises'开工 has significantly increased with the start of spring plowing demand. Packaging film is mainly based on rigid demand, with strong wait - and - see sentiment due to rising raw material prices. The pipe industry's operating rate has slightly rebounded with construction sites starting work. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7750 (+150), and the fundamentals are generally bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2605 contract basis is - 404, with a premium - discount ratio of - 5.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 62.5 tons (+3.1), neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Positions**: The LLDPE main contract has net - short positions with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk fluctuates widely. Affected by the Iran situation and rising external crude oil prices at night, with neutral inventory and recovering downstream demand, it is expected to trend stronger today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly due to geopolitics, and the main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the February official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points. The Iran situation is tense, and external crude oil rose at night. In the supply - demand side, multiple PDH units are shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The plastic - weaving industry's operating rate has slightly increased with improved enterprise orders, while the BOPP operating rate has abnormally decreased, and downstream is resistant to high - price raw materials. The current PP delivery spot price is 8200 (+350), and the fundamentals are generally bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The PP 2605 contract basis is 3, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 65.8 tons (+0.3), neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Positions**: The PP main contract has net - short positions with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk fluctuates widely. Affected by the Iran situation and rising external crude oil prices at night, with neutral inventory and recovering downstream demand, it is expected to trend stronger today [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly due to geopolitics, and the main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 7750 (+150), the 05 contract price is 8154 (+387), the basis is - 404 (-237). PE comprehensive factory inventory is 62.5 tons (+3.1), and social inventory is 66.3 tons (-11) [9]. - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 8200 (+350), the 05 contract price is 8197 (+377), the basis is 3 (-27). PP comprehensive factory inventory is 65.8 tons (+0.3), and social inventory is 32.4 tons (-21) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and apparent consumption show an upward trend, with a decreasing trend in import dependence. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].