一个月内落地。成本方面，电石下游配套装置重启，价格存在反弹空间；乙烯供需偏紧持续，价格或维持 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 坚挺。出口利空加大PVC供需矛盾，持续对价格形成压力。技术上，V2601关注4900附近支撑与5100附近 免责声明 | | | PVC产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5047 | 28 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1088126 | 395393 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1008160 | 26929 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 853070 | 1523 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 934697 | 19110 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -81627 | -17587 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) ...

Group 1 - The overall PVC market is experiencing a downward trend due to rapid upstream capacity growth and weak downstream demand, with approximately 50% of demand affected by the real estate sector, leading to an overall supply surplus [1][2] - Recent significant price declines in the PVC market are driven by two main factors: the commissioning of new production facilities increasing supply and the final ruling of anti-dumping duties on PVC from India, which negatively impacts China's PVC export demand [1][4] - The PVC market is expected to continue fluctuating downwards unless macroeconomic factors change, with potential strategies for achieving balance including reducing upstream production through price cuts or increasing exports [1][3] Group 2 - Three new PVC production facilities have been commissioned, adding a total of 1.1 million tons per year to the market, exacerbating the supply surplus [3] - From January to July, PVC exports from China increased significantly, totaling 2.29 million tons, a 57% year-on-year increase, which had previously alleviated domestic supply pressures [4] - The increase in anti-dumping duties imposed by India on Chinese PVC will significantly reduce the price competitiveness of Chinese exports to India, further contributing to the ongoing supply surplus [4]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-21 7月聚烯烃进出口量维持增长 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180 元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为-167元/吨（-80），LL 华东基差为-47元/吨（-40）， PP华东基差为-76元/吨（-60）。 策略 单边：中性； 跨期：09-01反套； 跨品种：无。 风险 宏观经济政策，原油价格波动，新增产能投产进度。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为-84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利 润为178.2元/吨（+6.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为-545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The polyolefin market has weak support due to slow demand follow - up. Macro factors offer no positive boost, causing the polyolefin futures to decline slightly. Supply pressure persists as previously shut - down plants restart. Although the postponed commissioning of the 90 - million - ton/year PP plant at Daxie Petrochemical eases short - term supply pressure, long - term new capacity pressure is significant. Cost support is weak as international oil prices are weak and propane prices are stable. The demand side is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, with slow improvement in terminal operations, providing limited market support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton (- 27), and the PP main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton (- 32). LL North China spot was 7220 yuan/ton (- 30), LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+ 0), and PP East China spot was 7000 yuan/ton (+ 0). LL North China basis was - 87 yuan/ton (- 3), LL East China basis was - 7 yuan/ton (+ 27), and PP East China basis was - 16 yuan/ton (+ 32) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.2% (+ 0.1%), and PP operating rate was 77.9% (+ 0.6%). PE oil - based production profit was 396.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 143.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), and PDH - based PP production profit was 171.6 yuan/ton (- 18.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 111.4 yuan/ton (+ 3.6), PP import profit was - 497.8 yuan/ton (- 36.4), and PP export profit was 34.6 US dollars/ton (+ 4.5) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.8% (+ 0.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.1% (- 0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.4% (+ 0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.1% (+ 0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data in the given text, but it is mentioned that upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising and inventory pressure is high [2]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have declined, with mainstream market prices dropping by 10-40 yuan/ton. The futures market has also seen a downward trend, leading to a slight strengthening of the basis as traders adjust their prices accordingly [1] - Downstream purchasing activity has shown a slight improvement, with localized enhancements in spot transactions. Current prices for 5-type calcium carbide PVC are reported as follows: East China at 4770-4880 yuan/ton, South China at 4820-4890 yuan/ton, Hebei at 4650-4780 yuan/ton, and Shandong at 4750-4830 yuan/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 78.84%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points compared to the previous week. The calcium carbide method's operating load rate is 79.21%, up by 1.38 percentage points, while the ethylene method's load rate is 77.92%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points [2] - As of August 14, the inventory of PVC production enterprises has decreased, with the number of days of inventory available for production at 5.4 days, down by 3.57% from the previous period. This reduction is attributed to sustained high pre-sale orders being shipped [2] PVC Market Outlook - The supply side is facing pressure from new capacity being released, with domestic trade remaining weak and spot transactions showing a lack of strength. Inventory pressure is expected to continue to rise, with no significant improvement in demand anticipated [3] - New capacities are expected to be released in August from companies such as Wanhua in Fujian and Tianjin Bohua, with Gansu Yaowang planning to start production in August and Qingdao Bay planning to start in September. This influx of new capacity adds further pressure to the PVC supply side [3] - Downstream production enterprises are operating at low rates, and purchasing enthusiasm remains weak, indicating that the industry is still in a seasonal downturn. Overall, the supply-demand pressure remains significant, suggesting a bearish outlook [3]

库存持续累积， 估值支撑走弱 PVC周报 2025/08/16 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2275元/吨，周同比下跌65元/吨；山东电石价格报2780元/吨，周同比持平；兰炭陕西中料620元/吨，周同比持 平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润有所修复，乙烯制利润小幅下降，目前估值支撑较弱。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率80.3%，环比上升0.9%；其中电石法80%，环比上升1.3%；乙烯法81.3%，环比下降0.2%。上周供应端负荷小幅上升，主 因中泰阜康、福建万华开工提升，下周预期负荷回落。8月检修量下降，并且新装置逐渐释放产量，供应压力加大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面印度反倾销政策延期至9月底，三季度弱出口的压力缓解，存在雨季末抢出口的预期；三大下游开工上周持稳，管材负荷33%， 环比上升0.9%；薄膜负荷 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-13 宏观利好带动聚烯烃盘面小幅走强 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7329元/吨（+15），PP主力合约收盘价为7091元/吨（-4），LL华北现货为7250 元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7280元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7040元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-79元/吨（+15），LL 华东基差为-49元/吨（-15）， PP华东基差为-51元/吨（+4）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.1%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.3%（+0.4%）。 市场分析 中美经贸会谈再次声明暂停实施24%关税90天，宏观利好下市场情绪较为乐观，盘面小幅走高。PE前期检修装置 开车重启，产能利用率上涨，开工率同比偏高，供应持续恢复，同时新增产能吉林石化持续放量。而当前PP整体 开工率仍处低位，新增产能宁波大榭石化90万吨/年PP装置预计8月中下旬投产，未来供应端压力较大。聚烯烃上 游与中游环节库存均积累。国际油价偏弱走势，丙烷价格偏稳运行，油制与PDH制生产利润尚可，成本端支持弱。 下游农膜开工持续回升，其他终端开工窄幅波动为主。 策略 生产利润方面，PE ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak. Although the calcium carbide price has rebounded slightly, it is still in a weak range, lacking valuation drive. The trends within the black building materials sector are divergent. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct intraday short - term trading, with the V2601 contract range reference at 5050 - 5300 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Side - **Capacity and Output**: The effective PVC capacity has reached 2.852 billion tons. Last week, the PVC output was 475,900 tons, a 5.22% increase from the previous week and a 9.63% increase year - on - year. The calcium carbide method's effective capacity is 2.033 billion tons, accounting for about 71.3%, with a weekly output of 336,100 tons (up 3.54% week - on - week and 0.30% year - on - year). The ethylene method's effective capacity is 767 million tons, accounting for about 28.7%, with a weekly output of 139,800 tons (up 9.48% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year) [19][22][25]. - **开工率**: Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 4.73 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively high level. The calcium carbide method's operating rate was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year. The ethylene method's operating rate was 81.49%, up 2.50 percentage points week - on - week and 15.73 percentage points year - on - year [28][30]. - **Imports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 124,300 tons, a 0.51% increase year - on - year. The cumulative imports of plastics and their products were 9.8782 billion tons, a 2.97% decrease year - on - year [33]. 3.2 Demand - Side - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.0172 billion tons, a 3.03% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC sales - to - production ratio was 175%, a 14 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week but a 46 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [38]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The comprehensive operating rate of downstream products increased slightly but remained the weakest in the same period. The operating rate of mainstream pipes continued to decline, while those of profiles and films remained stable. Weak real - estate conditions have dragged down demand, resulting in insufficient orders for downstream enterprises and low inventory - building willingness [41]. - **Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC exports were 1.9605 billion tons, a significant 50.26% increase year - on - year, but there was a significant month - on - month decline in June. The cumulative exports of PVC flooring materials were 2.09 million tons, a 11.14% decrease year - on - year [47][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 77,660 tons last week, a 7.50% increase week - on - week and a 17.48% decrease year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 337,200 tons, a 2.35% decrease week - on - week and a 12.66% increase year - on - year. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [54][56]. 3.4 Valuation - **Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke remained stable last week, lower than the same period last year. The price of calcium carbide increased significantly week - on - week, with the mainstream price in Wuhai at 2,350 yuan/ton. The prices of ethylene and vinyl chloride remained stable week - on - week and were lower than the same period last year. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly week - on - week but was slightly higher year - on - year, while the price of liquid chlorine rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [60][63][66]. - **Profit**: The loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - method PVC widened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The loss of the ethylene method also widened slightly week - on - week and was at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [69][73]. 3.5 Futures Market - **Contract Spreads**: Last week, the 1 - 5 spread of PVC weakened, remaining stable year - on - year; the 5 - 9 spread fluctuated, lower than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread had a narrow - range fluctuation, higher than the same period last year. The basis of the main contract weakened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, indicating that expectations are stronger than reality [12][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the polypropylene market have changed little and are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. The supply is relatively abundant, the domestic apparent demand has slightly deteriorated, and the cost side is expected to change little in the short term [1][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions No relevant content provided. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: This week's production met expectations, with few new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly. The weekly average import volume was 75,000 tons, and the export volume was 37,500 tons, both remaining unchanged from last week. In June, exports were 235,300 tons, and imports were 243,300 tons, also in line with expectations [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand this week was 779,600 tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from last week. Next week, the apparent demand is expected to be around 820,000 tons according to the seasonality [6]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight inventory build - up this week, and it is expected to continue to build up slightly next week. The upstream inventory of some sources decreased slightly, while the total inventory increased [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis showed an overall trend of fluctuating and strengthening, but there were few opportunities. The 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated and weakened, and the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 monthly spreads also showed certain fluctuations [9]. - **Variety Spread**: The spreads between fiber -拉丝, copolymer -拉丝, and injection -拉丝 all increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spread between pellets and powders was too narrow, which had a certain supporting effect on the pellet price [9]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Upstream**: Upstream maintenance is gradually entering the peak period, but the overall supply is still relatively abundant, with a focus on active sales [11]. - **Midstream**: The mid - stream sales situation has slightly deteriorated, and some futures - spot arbitrageurs have opportunities to sell after the market decline [11]. - **Downstream**: The downstream replenishment willingness has deteriorated as they are digesting their previous inventory [11]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a weakly fluctuating thinking, beware of callback risks, and consider a strategy of selling call options. The strategy of going long on PP and short on MA has been recommended to take profit and exit [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. The fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether subsequent exports can exceed expectations to reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern. In the short term, prices have fallen sharply after the anti - involution sentiment subsided. In the medium term, if there is no policy for device clearance, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry still faces the pressure of de - valuing to clear excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 90 yuan/ton; Shandong calcium carbide is 2,780 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 75 yuan/ton; and Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 620 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration first soared and then declined, and the profit from ethylene production remained low, with weak valuation support [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.5%, a monthly increase of 2%. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 78.7%, a monthly decrease of 2.2%, and the ethylene method is 81.5%, a monthly increase of 13%. Last month, the maintenance volume was high, and the average capacity utilization rate was lower than that in June, with reduced supply pressure. This month, the maintenance intensity is lower than last month, and the newly - put - into - production devices are gradually releasing output, so the supply pressure is expected to increase significantly [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, there was a high export growth rate in the first five months. In June, with the rainy season in Southeast Asia and the uncertainty of export policies to India, overall exports declined significantly. Currently, both India's BIS policy and anti - dumping policy have been extended, improving the weak outlook for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries stopped falling and rebounded. The pipe load is 32.1%, a monthly decrease of 7.4%; the film load is 76.9%, a monthly increase of 4.7%; the profile load is 36.9%, a monthly increase of 2.2%. The overall downstream load is 42.9%, the same as last month. The overall downstream performance is worse than the same period last year, and the overall demand is weak. The main incremental demand depends on exports [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, the in - factory inventory was 33.7 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.9 tons; the social inventory was 77.7 tons, a monthly increase of 18.5 tons; the overall inventory was 111.4 tons, a monthly increase of 13.6 tons; and the warehouse receipts continued to rise. Currently, it has entered the inventory accumulation cycle, and the upstream inventory is gradually transferred to the middle - stream. In the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, if the export end does not perform better than expected, inventory accumulation will continue [11]. 3.2 Cost End - The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai is 2,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 90 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide in Shandong is 2,780 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 75 yuan/ton; and the price of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 620 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The semi - coke price has stabilized, and caustic soda is weak [11][49]. 3.3 Supply End - In 2025, the capacity investment in the PVC industry is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. New capacity of 250 tons/year is expected to be put into production, including 100 tons/year of ethylene - based and 150 tons/year of calcium - carbide - based. The newly - put - into - production devices include those of Xinsheng Chemical, Jintai Chemical, Wanhua Chemical (Phase II), Tianjin Bohua, Zhejiang Jiahua, Qingdao Gulf, and Gansu Yaowang [58][63]. 3.4 Demand End - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) of PVC stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, there was a high growth rate in the first five months, but it declined significantly in June. With the extension of India's anti - dumping policy, there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The overall downstream demand is weak, and the main incremental demand depends on exports [11].