1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic - Geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions support the price of plastics. The supply of raw materials is expected to shrink, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, downstream demand is resistant, and the cost transfer is difficult [6]. - The profit of the production end is under pressure, and the import profit is improved. It is recommended to be bullish on the single - side, wait and see on the inter - period, and wait and see on the inter - variety [6]. Polypropylene - Raw material shortages lead to a decline in the supply center, and the price may be strong in the second quarter under the dual resonance of cost increase and supply contraction. However, downstream demand resistance exists, and cost transfer requires time [97]. - The overall profit is compressed, and the profit of coal - based production is repaired. It is recommended to be bullish on the single - side with high risks, wait for inventory digestion in the inter - period, and wait and see on the inter - variety [97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic Price & Spread - Futures prices, spot prices, and spreads have changed. The basis of each region has weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased [9][13]. - The price increase of overseas PE has slowed down, and the import window has closed [16][23]. Supply - The start - up rate of PE has decreased, and the supply is expected to shrink. The new production capacity in the early stage has ended, and the production capacity before the 2605 contract is limited [42][40]. - The maintenance plan has increased, and the loss of production is obvious [50]. - The import volume may decrease, and the export volume has increased [57][60]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate has increased slowly, and the demand is mainly rigid. The inventory of the middle - and upper - reaches has accumulated, and the structure is differentiated [6][66]. Polypropylene Price & Spread - Futures and spot prices have changed, the basis has weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread has declined [108]. - The price increase of overseas PP has slowed down, and the export signing has improved [110]. Supply - The start - up rate of PP has decreased, and the supply center has declined. The new production capacity in the early stage is large, and the production capacity before the 2605 contract is limited [141][140]. - The maintenance plan has increased, and the loss of production may remain high [150]. - The import volume has decreased to a new low, and the export volume has increased [155]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate has increased, but the cost transfer is difficult. The industrial inventory has continued to decline [97][160].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, polyolefins opened significantly lower and closed with a negative candlestick. For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable while PetroChina raised some prices by 200. For drawn PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina kept prices stable. Fundamentally, the "taco" situation reappeared and oil prices plummeted. Currently, the macro - environment has a repeated impact on the chemical industry during trading. The future focus should be on the actual operation of plants and the support of demand at lower levels [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 8443, 8918, and 8736 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the price drops were - 275, - 605, and - 576, with percentage drops of - 3.15%, - 6.35%, and - 6.19%. The trading volumes were 10692, 1133666, and 368709, and the open interests were 9768, 314927, and 156955, with changes of 1460, - 58310, and - 10289. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 475, 182, and 293, compared with previous values of - 805, 211, and 594 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 8394, 9114, and 8780 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the price drops were - 193, - 679, and - 514, with percentage drops of - 2.25%, - 6.93%, and - 5.53%. The trading volumes were 11775, 1328839, and 372394, and the open interests were 18589, 339558, and 169925, with changes of 2245, - 59592, and - 21892. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 720, 334, and 386, compared with previous values of - 1206, 499, and 707 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 3136 yuan/ton, 9030 yuan/ton, 1080 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 9160 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 3349 yuan/ton, 9075 yuan/ton, 1159 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 9160 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 8950 - 9800 yuan/ton, 8800 - 9800 yuan/ton, and 9150 - 9750 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 8950 - 9700 yuan/ton, and 8800 - 9700 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 9000 - 9300 yuan/ton, 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 9200 - 9600 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 9150 - 9700 yuan/ton, 9150 - 9350 yuan/ton, and 9350 - 9600 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Tuesday (March 24), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $92.35 per barrel, up $4.22 from the previous trading day, a 4.79% increase, with a trading range of $86.34 - $93.36. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $104.49 per barrel, up $4.55 from the previous trading day, a 4.55% increase, with a trading range of $98.15 - $105.00 [2].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamentals and market conditions of LLDPE and PP in the polyolefin industry [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE,开工 continues to decline, cost transmission is poor, and raw material prices are expected to be strong due to geopolitical factors, while supply and demand factors such as production and inventory need attention [1][2] - For PP, C3 raw material prices fluctuate greatly, spot price increases are slow, cost support is strong, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices under deep - loss PDH profits [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 8918, with a daily decline of 6.35%, trading volume of 1530549, and a decrease of 58310 in positions. The 05 - contract basis was - 318 (compared to - 573 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 182 (compared to 211 the previous day). Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8600, 8700, and 8900 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 9114, with a daily decline of 6.93%, trading volume of 1745058, and a decrease of 59592 in positions. The 05 - contract basis was - 114 (compared to - 493 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 334 (compared to 499 the previous day). Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9000, 9000, and 9300 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - **LLDPE**: PE Exxon LL and Tarim HD are under maintenance, and the operating rate has dropped to 76% (a 10% drop compared to early March), with the standard product production ratio remaining low. Foreign naphtha plants have announced maintenance plans from late March to April, and the PE operating rate may drop to around 70% in the future [1] - **PP**: Zhejiang Petrochemical's second - line PP is under maintenance, and the PP operating rate has dropped to 70%. There are still many planned PDH maintenance, and PDH profits have reached a new low. The basis remains weak, and cost transmission is poor [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **LLDPE**: Geopolitical tensions are escalating, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is stagnant, and raw materials such as naphtha are expected to be strong, increasing PE costs. After the festival, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the operating rate of packaging film has rebounded, but cost transmission takes time. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has started mass production, and the planned maintenance and production reduction in March are increasing, the standard product production ratio is decreasing, and inventory is starting to be depleted [2] - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance remains high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have resumed work intensively, and demand has improved month - on - month. PDH profits remain low, and multiple PDH plants in South China have not resumed operation after maintenance. Under deep - loss PDH profits, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: 1; PP trend intensity: 1 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dow Chemical Company plans to double its previously announced price increase for plastic resins due to supply disruptions caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 1: Price Increase Details - Dow's CEO James Fitterling stated that after a 10-cent increase in polyethylene prices in March, the company will now raise prices by 30 cents per pound in April instead of the previously planned 15 cents [1] - The price increase is specifically for the North American market and reflects the impact of raw material supply shortages [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Dow's stock price rose by 6% on the day of the announcement and has increased by 25% since the outbreak of the conflict [1] - Polyethylene is a key material used in the production of shopping bags, plastic bottles, and other products, indicating the broader implications for the consumer goods market [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Plastic and PP prices are rising strongly [4] - In the short term, polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the holiday and the development of the Middle East situation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 decreased by 2.5 percentage points to around 85%, currently at a neutral level [15] - PP开工率 rebounded by 1 percentage point to around 76.5% after a decline, at a relatively low level [15] 2. Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of March 20, the PE downstream开工率 increased by 3.76 percentage points to 37.59% week-on-week. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream production resumed gradually but has not returned to the pre - holiday level, showing seasonal changes [22] - As of the week of March 20, the PP downstream开工率 rebounded by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week-on-week. Downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials is low, and demand recovery is slow. The plastic开工率 of the main downstream of drawn wire decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28% [22] 3. Plastic基差 - The basis fluctuated greatly. The increase in spot price was less than that in futures price. The basis of the 05 contract fell to - 219 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [26] 4. Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 810,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last lunar year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared with the same period in recent years [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, cracking supply contracts and cost transmission is poor; for PP, supply is restricted, exports are favorable, and the risk - free window for futures and spot is opened [1] - Geopolitical issues remain unresolved, affecting oil - related logistics. Naphtha is expected to be strong, raising PE costs. There is an expected improvement in post - holiday demand for mulch films and the packaging film industry will gradually recover after the Lantern Festival. For PP, C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support. After the Lantern Festival, downstream demand is expected to improve [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 8916, with a daily increase of 5.75%. The trading volume was 1319688, and the position change was 12786. The 05 - contract basis was - 516 (compared to - 281 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 235 (compared to 256 the previous day). Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8400, 8500, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase from the previous day [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 9158, with a daily increase of 6.14%. The trading volume was 1514932, and the position change was 17954. The 05 - contract basis was - 388 (compared to - 128 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 513 (compared to 472 the previous day). Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8750, 8770, and 8850 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase from the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - For polyolefins, Guangdong Petrochemical's 40HD and Exxon's linear line 1 are shut down. PE operating rate has dropped below 80%, and the production of standard products has decreased. PP operating rate has slightly increased by 0.5% to around 70.5%. There are still many planned PDH overhauls, and PDH profit has reached a new low today. The basis continues to weaken, cost transmission is poor, and downstream terminals have not accepted order price adjustments. There is a risk - free delivery profit of about 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and middle - stream enterprises have reserved a large number of storage spaces [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **PE**: Geopolitical issues lead to shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting oil - related logistics. Naphtha is expected to be strong, raising PE costs. There is an expected improvement in post - holiday demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry will gradually recover after the Lantern Festival. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has started mass production, and the number of planned overhauls and production cuts is expected to increase in March. The production of standard products has decreased, and inventory has accumulated significantly during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the persistence of geopolitical issues and the willingness to restock during the peak season [2] - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support. There are still many PDH overhauls. Before the 2605 contract, there is no new production capacity. The game between existing supply and demand intensifies. After the Lantern Festival, downstream demand is expected to improve. PDH profit remains at a low level, and many PDH plants in South China have not resumed operation. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH plants [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity is 1; PP trend intensity is 1 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market is affected by the unstable Middle - East situation, with a significant increase in crude oil prices. The production profit of polyolefins is poor, and the cost - side drive is strong. Although there is a large new production capacity in recent years and the production capacity is abundant, imports are affected, and raw material supply is short, leading some producers to reduce production preventively, thus alleviating the supply pressure. After the holiday, the downstream start - up rate gradually increases, and demand recovers. In the medium term, the pressure of new production capacity is still high, and the pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. In the short - term, due to blocked imports and defensive load - reduction, the producer's operating rate decreases, supply tightens, and with the sharp increase in the prices of crude oil, LPG, and methanol, polyolefin prices may run strongly at a high level [10]. - For the PP single - side strategy, considering the large new PP production capacity and weak downstream demand, the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. However, due to the unstable Middle - East situation and the sharp increase in crude oil prices, the short - term PP price is strong. It is recommended to hold short positions on PP (temporarily on the sidelines) [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - **Inventory**: The expected inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers is about 590,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to rise. The expected commercial inventory of polypropylene is about 890,000 tons, which is lower than the current period [9]. - **Supply**: This week, due to the planned maintenance of new devices such as Jilin Petrochemical, Zhong'an United, Lanzhou Petrochemical, and Guangdong Petrochemical, and the non - restart of previously maintained devices, the expected total production in the next period is 662,800 tons, a decrease of 20,500 tons compared with the current total production. The capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is likely to decline [9]. - **Demand**: This week, with the concentrated release of demands such as spring plowing and preparation, grain packaging, and logistics express, the downstream start - up rates of PP and PE have increased [9]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The losses of oil - based PE and PP profits have expanded, the profits of ethylene - based PE and propylene - based PP are in the red, and the losses of PDH - based PP have also increased, indicating cost - side support [9]. 3.2 Futures and Options Strategies - Hold long positions with a light position [10]. 3.3 PP Single - Side Strategy - Strategy: Short PP (temporarily on the sidelines). As of March 5th, the price has risen significantly to 7,458 yuan/ton. The logic is that the new PP production capacity is large and downstream demand is weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. However, due to the unstable Middle - East situation and the sharp increase in crude oil prices, the short - term PP price is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Structure - The report presents the industrial chain structures of polyethylene and polypropylene, but no specific analysis content is provided [16][19] 3.5 Spot and Futures Markets - The report shows the price trends of L2505 and PP2505 contracts, as well as the basis trends of PE and PP [26][31] 3.6 Industrial Chain Profit Situation - The report shows the production profit trends of PE and PP, including oil - based, ethylene - based, propylene - based, PDH - based, and coal - based production profits, as well as import and export profits [34][41][46] 3.7 Inventory - The report shows the inventory trends of PE and PP, including producer inventory, trader inventory, port inventory, and coal - based inventory [55][61] 3.8 Supply Side - **PE Production**: The report shows the weekly production, start - up rate, and maintenance loss volume of PE, as well as the import volume. The plastic production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual growth rate of 12%. In 2025, the new production capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the production capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned production capacity of PE is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [71][86][91] - **PP Production**: The report shows the weekly production, start - up rate, and maintenance loss volume of PP, as well as the import volume. PP production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual growth rate of 11%. In 2025, China's PP production capacity was about 4.555 million tons, and the production capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, an increase of 10.2% compared with 2024. In 2026, the planned production capacity of PP is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [79][86][97] 3.9 Demand Side - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The report shows the downstream start - up rates of PE and PP, including the start - up rates of various sub - industries such as agricultural film, packaging film, blow - molding, PE pipes, plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and PP pipes [107][112][117] - **Export Volume**: The report shows the export volume trends of PE and PP [126] - **Plastic Products**: The report shows the production volume of plastic products, the inventory of the rubber and plastic products industry, the year - on - year growth rate of monthly production of automobiles and home appliances, the export volume of home appliances, the domestic automobile production volume, and the Chinese automobile export volume [129][130][135]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to avoid over - competition. The Middle East situation boosts the energy and chemical industry. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PP price is likely to rise in the near term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the Middle East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but did not reach the pre - festival level. The overall downstream operating rate of PP showed seasonal changes. On March 12, the number of shutdown devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 75.5%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawn wire dropped to about 25.5%. The petrochemical inventory has been decreasing continuously after the Spring Festival and is currently at a neutral level in recent years. Although the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed was slow. Coupled with the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil price rebounded sharply. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories increased, the rigid demand was released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP film rose. The shortage of raw materials led to an increase in the reduction of the load of olefin plants at home and abroad, and the downstream showed resistance to high prices, resulting in weak spot trading [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher and then oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 8270 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8697 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8303 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 4.06%. The open interest decreased by 10,939 lots to 410,773 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions rose. The price of drawn wire was reported at 7470 - 8580 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking Supply - On March 12, the number of shutdown devices changed little. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 75.5%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawn wire dropped to about 25.5% [4] Demand - As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but did not reach the pre - festival level. The overall downstream operating rate of PP showed seasonal changes [4] Inventory - On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 800,000 tons week - on - week, 20,000 tons higher than the same lunar period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $98 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $20 per ton to $1130 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of PVC is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [2] Core View - Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, crude oil prices have dropped significantly, and PVC futures have returned to fundamentals, with the market under short - term pressure. The domestic PVC market fundamentals have not improved significantly in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 05 - contract futures price of PVC is 5466, the East China spot price is 5700, the basis is 234, and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 111 [1] Spot News - Due to the geopolitical conflict, international energy prices have continued to rise significantly. The prices of upstream raw materials such as ethylene have been significantly increased over the weekend, and global ethylene - based enterprises tend to reduce their loads due to the intensifying supply shortage [1] Market Condition Analysis - On the supply side, the pressure has been continuously accumulating. The enterprise operating load remains around 81%, and the social inventory is at a high level. Although some enterprises plan spring maintenance, the high - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the demand side, it shows a "weak recovery" trend. Although it has entered the traditional peak season and the resumption of work of downstream product enterprises has driven some rigid demand, the demand for hard products, which dominate, is lackluster due to the overall downturn of the real estate industry. In terms of exports, the short - term export inquiries have improved, but the boosting effect is limited [1]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly research report on PVC by Guantong Futures, released on March 9, 2026, written by analyst Su Miaoda [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - PVC is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although there are factors such as high inventory and weak real - estate demand, there are also positive factors like the expected policy and maintenance after the Spring Festival, the recovery of downstream demand, the rise in crude oil prices, and the increase in ethylene prices [4] Supply - side Summary - PVC开工率环比 decreased by 0.97 percentage points to 81.11%, but it is still at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The decrease is due to the shutdown and maintenance of Henan Jiyuan Fangsheng and Yantai Wanhua [4][16] Demand - side Summary - After the Spring Festival, the average downstream开工率 of PVC rebounded by 18.73 percentage points to 35.84%, 3.14 percentage points higher than the same lunar period last year. The export inquiry improved due to the price increase in the Asian market [4] - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. In 2025 from January to December, real - estate investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas all had large year - on - year declines. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion further decreased. As of the week of March 8, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 8.75% week - on - week, still at a low level in the same period over the years [4][22] Inventory Summary - As of the week of March 6, PVC social inventory increased by 3.75% week - on - week to 140.38 tons, 62.29% higher than the same period last year. The inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise this week, remaining at a high level [24] Basis Summary - The current 05 basis is - 196 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [11]