04 成本端 02 期现市场 投产如期落地， 库存上升至季节性高位 PVC月报 2025/10/10 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 01 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2400元/吨，月同比持平；山东电石价格报2890元/吨，月同比上涨160元/吨；兰炭陕西中料730元/吨，月同比上 涨70元/吨。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润从高位大幅下跌，乙烯制利润小幅改善，整体估值支撑走强。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率82.6%，月同比上升5.5%；其中电石法82.9%，月同比上升6.2%；乙烯法81.9%，月同比上升3.8%。上月检修量小幅增加， 平均产能利用率低于八月，但新装置释放产量，供应压力实际上升。本月检修力度预期减小，且今年剩余两套新装置计划试车投产，预计供 给压力持续上升。 ◆ 需求：出口方面，八月出口量同比增幅较上半年偏弱， ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-10-10 新装置投产，聚烯烃供应压力增加 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7077元/吨（-76），PP主力合约收盘价为6745元/吨（-107），LL华北现货为7000 元/吨（-120），LL华东现货为7140元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-77元/吨（-44），LL 华东基差为63元/吨（+76）， PP华东基差为5元/吨（+107）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为247.7元/吨（+72.5），PP油制生产利润为-382.3元/吨（+72.5），PDH制PP生产利 润为-224.0元/吨（+40.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-41.5元/吨（-0.1），PP进口利润为-517.2元/吨（-0.1），PP出口利润为13.4美元/吨（+0.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工 率为44.3%（+0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/09/2 5 820 7080 7200 9515 7350 830 785 -46 7169 -80 62 12736 2025/09/2 6 815 7080 7200 9500 7350 830 785 -46 7159 -80 59 12736 2025/09/2 9 815 7100 7215 9500 7350 830 785 -19 7181 -80 59 12736 2025/09/3 0 805 7080 7215 9500 7350 830 774 -19 7153 -80 59 12736 2025/10/0 9 805 7025 7200 9525 7350 830 774 -19 7077 -40 59 12729 日度变化 0 -55 -15 25 0 0 0 0 -76 40 0 -7 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游两油去库，煤化工去库，社会库存持平，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，09 基差华北-110左右，华东-50， ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4769 | -70 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 708041 | 116303 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1144046 | 70687 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 866897 | 29648 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 995262 | 45166 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -128365 | -15518 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4990 | -10 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4715 | -26.15 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4995 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4776.88 | -34.38 | | | PVC:中国 ...

研究报告 聚烯烃月报 基本面依旧偏弱，后续关注宏观 华龙期货投资咨询部 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 聚乙烯方面，9 月聚乙烯供应充足，下游需求整体开工率环 比上期增加 2.85%，但农膜行业整体开工率较去年出现下滑，采 购及备货力度不及往年，使得聚乙烯市场价格呈不同程度走跌。 低压薄膜均价 7685 元/吨，环比下跌 0.09%；高压薄膜均价 9566 元/吨，环比下跌 0.36%；线型薄膜均价 7443 元/吨，环比下跌 0.41%。 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 聚丙烯方面，9 月聚丙烯下游开工及订单情况处于同比偏低 水平，压制下游补货能力，且旺季预期兑现延迟，导致聚丙烯在 旺季预期下整体呈现下跌趋势。全国拉丝均价在 6795 元/吨，环 比下跌 201 元/吨，跌幅 2.87%。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 9 日星期一 聚乙烯方面，据隆众 ...

2021年四季度以来，国内房价开始出现拐点，市场对房地产市场的预期有所转变，房屋成交数据持续下 滑，PVC终端需求不断萎缩，价格开始持续下行。 在出口方面，印度加征反倾销税对我国PVC出口造成一定影响。2022年以来，由于内需不足，国内PVC 价格低迷，出口量有所增加。同时，印度由于城市化率上升，且其PVC需要大量进口，因此印度成为近 几年我国重要的PVC出口目的地。8月14日，印度商工部宣布对我国PVC征收122~232美元／吨反倾销 税，为期5年，不过此前市场对该消息已有预期，7月、8月"抢出口"现象明显。后期PVC出口将受到较 大冲击。 整体看，短期PVC供大于求的格局难以改变。从供应端看，国内PVC产能充足，受氯碱一体化影响，电 石法PVC生产具有一定惯性，相较其他化工品，PVC的开工率下降较慢。在这种情况下，PVC高库存问 题凸显，行业面临较大的去库压力。从需求端看，房地产行业的下行趋势短期难以逆转，且出口由于印 度加征反倾销税也存在较大的下行预期。因此，长期看，PVC价格的弱势格局难以改变。不过，短期 PVC存在反弹需求。第一，当前PVC价格处于历史低位，成本的支撑作用逐渐显现，行业有限产保价需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The decrease in net imports of domestic polyethylene and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports for three consecutive months are favorable for the L - PP spread, while the narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - The increase in Brent crude oil and domestic PE production has a negative impact on the L and L - PP spread respectively [5]. - The increase in the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI are favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - Downstream demand is in the peak season, but there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Situation - **25 - 10 - 09**: L2601 contract closed at 7153 points, down 28 points or 0.39%. PP2601 contract closed at 6852 points, down 51 points or 0.74%. Different regions have different price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. The price ranges in different regions are similar to the previous report [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. Different regions have corresponding price ranges [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: In the plastic spot market, prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. In the PP spot market, prices in different regions were either weak or stable [8]. Important Information - **25 - 10 - 09**: The US federal government shut down due to the breakdown of the appropriation negotiation between the Trump administration and Congress, with an estimated weekly economic loss of about $15 billion [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petroleum and chemical industry carried out quality improvement work, and many enterprises strengthened full - process quality control [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios increased by 3.2 and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous period [8]. Logical Analysis - **25 - 10 - 09**: In August, the net import of domestic polyethylene decreased, and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports decreased for three consecutive months, which is favorable for the L - PP spread. The narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization in July is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Since September, the increase in Brent crude oil is unfavorable for L, and the increase in domestic PE production in August is unfavorable for the L - PP spread [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: As of last week, the number of L and PP futures registered warehouse receipts changed, and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI in August is favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the supply side's maintenance is still at a high level, and there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Trading Strategies - **25 - 10 - 09**: Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract. Consider intervening in the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th. Wait and see for options [2]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Control the open - position inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the high on Monday. Wait and see for spreads and options [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: Try to go long on the L and PP main 01 contracts at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday. Wait and see for spreads and options [7]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: Due to the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price of plastic and PP fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies. Wait and see for spreads and options [9].

【PVC现货】 假期临近，pvc盘面窄幅震荡。三季度基本面供需矛盾依然较难缓解，盘面、现货价格共同趋弱。供应 端方面，产量持续高位，过剩格局凸显。需求端，三季度旺季未有明显表现，型材需求持续收缩，旺季 不旺特征明显。整体上游持货意愿下降，不过受益于出口，缓解一定的过剩压力。成本端原料电石维持 上行趋势，乙烯价格维稳，成本端维持底部支撑。四季度关注成本支撑，预计旺季阶段pvc下方空间有 限，关注下游需求表现。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 本周PVC粉整体开工负荷率为76.11%，环比提升0.68个百分点；其中电石法PVC粉开工负荷率为 76.97%，环比提升0.06个百分点；乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为74.12%，环比提升2.12个百分点。 隆众数据统计显示，截至9月25日，中国PV ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The petrochemical and chemical industry aims for an average annual increase of over 5% in added - value from 2025 - 2026, focusing on high - end, green, and intelligent transformation. Policy support in finance, elements, etc., is provided to promote quality and quantity growth [1]. - Brent crude oil has been rising since September 2025 but is down 7.5% year - on - year, which is negative for L. In August, domestic PE production increased for two consecutive months to 2.827 million tons, up 16.4% year - on - year, negatively affecting the L - PP spread [2]. - The US manufacturing PMI in August 2025 rose to 48.7 points, rising for three consecutive months, which is positive for L in the single - side trading [4]. - In September 2025, the petrochemical industry promoted quality improvement during the "Quality Month". Enterprises strengthened full - process quality control through digital and intelligent means [4]. - The downstream demand is in the peak season with a slight increase in downstream operation rates. However, the 01 contracts of both L and PP have new production capacity release expectations. Near - term cost - side oil price increases lead to short - term price fluctuations, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **September 30, 2025**: The L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. LLDPE prices in North China were 7100 - 7170 yuan/ton, 7160 - 7370 yuan/ton in East China, and 7230 - 7600 yuan/ton in South China. The PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. PP prices in North China were 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton in East China, and 6700 - 6830 yuan/ton in South China [1]. - **September 29, 2025**: The L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. LLDPE prices in North China were 7120 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7180 - 7370 yuan/ton in East China, and 7230 - 7600 yuan/ton in South China. The PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. PP prices in North China were 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton in East China, and 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton in South China [4]. - **September 19, 2025**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices in North China were 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton with some drops; in East China, they were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton with partial price changes; in South China, they were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton with a slight decline. In the PP spot market, prices in North China were 6670 - 6780 yuan/ton with a decline; in East China, they were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton with a decline; in South China, they were 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton with no change [6]. Important Information - **September 30, 2025**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in added - value, promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation, and providing policy support [1]. - **September 29, 2025**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petrochemical industry promoted quality improvement. Enterprises such as CNOOC, China National Chemical Engineering, and PetroChina strengthened full - process quality control [4]. - **September 19, 2025**: On the previous day, the PE maintenance ratio was 16.9%, up 3.2 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 19.3%, up 1.5 percentage points [6]. Logical Analysis - Brent crude oil rising since September 2025 but being down 7.5% year - on - year is negative for L. The increase in domestic PE production in August is negative for the L - PP spread [2]. - As of the previous week, there were no new registered L and PP futures warehouse receipts. The number of L futures registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12,700 lots, and the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 745 lots, with an inventory accumulation of 3.5% to 14,100 tons. The rise in the US manufacturing PMI in August is positive for L in single - side trading [4]. - The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the 01 contracts of L and PP have new production capacity release expectations. The near - term increase in oil prices leads to short - term price fluctuations, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. Trading Strategies - **September 30, 2025**: Due to the approaching holiday and no night trading, control the open inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and focus on the pressure at Monday's high. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [2]. - **September 29, 2025**: Try to go long in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low; try to go long in the PP main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [5]. - **September 19, 2025**: Due to the near - term increase in oil prices, plastic and PP prices fluctuate in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7].

【聚烯烃季报20250928】 矛盾有限，聚烯烃价格重心下移 日期:2025-09-28 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【聚烯烃季报20250928】 矛盾有限,聚烯烃价格重心下移 | 核心观点 | 核心观点 | 2025-09-28 | 2025-09-28 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | * 合詞: 12601 | * 合约: pp2601 | ® 观点: 聚丙烯 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 | * 观点: 聚乙烯 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 | | | | | | | | | | * 逻辑: PP处于产能投放周期中，新增装置陆续落地,同时存量负荷也较高,供应压力较大;需求虽进入 | ® 逻辑: 【处于产能投放周期中，新增装置陆续落地，存量负荷也较高，同时Q4进口有望放量，供应压力较 | 大; 需求虽进入旺季但不及预期,难以消化高产量。在供需过剩之下，聚烯熔价格重心或持续下移。 | 旺季但不及预期，难以消化高产量。在供需过剩之下，聚 ...