25 年中美科技股复盘——多行业联合人工智能 1 月报 20260106 摘要 中国科技股在全球资本市场中相对价值重估，受益于硬科技和国产替代 政策推动，半导体、AI 算力、硬件、光模块等细分赛道全面开花，AI 领 域是全年核心主线，胜宏科技、新易盛、中际旭创等公司受益。 美国科技股呈现头部集中格局，但高集中度风险显现。2025 年仅谷歌 和英伟达跑赢纳斯达克指数，其余科技巨头表现落后，市场聚焦企业通 过 AI 实现盈利能力，标普 500 利润过度集中于七巨头，占比高达 26%。 AI 产业链带动电子行业发展，存储需求激增导致价格上涨，光模块及上 游元器件景气度高，PCB 及上游材料保持良好状态。工业富联基于 GB200/GB300 机柜级产品出货，业绩持续性强；环旭电子传统主业稳 健增长，光模块新业务取得进展。 AI 应用资本化加速，预计 2026 年头部应用商业化提速，算法模拟智能 提升效率和生产力。国内外投融资节奏加快，C 端应用 PS 估值区间在 20 倍至 100 倍之间，ChatGPT 等应用的商业模式探索推动行业发展。 Q&A 2025 年中美科技股的表现如何？ 2025 年成为了中美科技股走势 ...

Summary of Conference Call on PCB Industry Industry Overview - The PCB sector is benefiting from AI-driven demand, with multi-layer board growth expected to reach 40% in 2024 and overall growth between 10% and 20% [1][3] - The PCB index has increased by 57% year-to-date, with public fund holdings rising to 3.2% [1][4] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of industry and technology during the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating significant potential for the tech sector [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The core issue in the PCB industry is the supply-demand gap, driven by unexpected growth in demand from GPU clients like NVIDIA and overseas cloud providers [1][7] - **Technological Advancements**: New technologies such as orthogonal backplanes and narrow board designs are enhancing PCB value. For instance, NVIDIA's GB200 72-card cabinet uses double the number of cards compared to traditional servers, increasing demand for high-density interconnect (HDI) products [1][8] - **Chip Process Improvements**: Advancements in chip manufacturing processes are leading to increased data transmission bandwidth, which in turn drives upgrades in high-speed materials and PCB architecture [1][9] - **Supply Chain Bottlenecks**: High-end PCB production relies on equipment from Japan and Germany, which has limited capacity. The construction of new facilities in Southeast Asia is progressing slower than expected, leading to a tight supply situation anticipated in 2026 [1][10] Financial Performance - PCB sector profits declined by 4% in 2023 but are expected to rebound to a 25% growth in Q1 2025, with net profit growth rising from -30% in 2023 to 56% in Q1 2025 [1][3] - Current valuations for leading PCB companies are generally below 20 times expected earnings for 2026, indicating strong growth potential and locked-in orders [1][11] Investment Opportunities - Companies with significant capacity flexibility, such as Jingwang Electronics, Zhongchuan Precision, and Shenghong Technology, are recommended for investment [1][12] - Notable performers in the AI equipment and consumables sector include Ding Tai Gao Ke and Zhong Wu Gao Xin, which have seen record revenues and profits [1][13][14] Market Trends - The global market for PB specialized equipment is projected to grow from $5.8 billion in 2020 to $7.085 billion in 2024, driven by increased demand for high-precision drilling and exposure equipment [1][15] - Domestic manufacturers like Dazhu CNC and New Flag Micro are making significant strides in the PB specialized equipment market [1][16] Upstream Material Trends - The PCB industry is experiencing a wave of upgrades in core materials such as copper-clad laminates (CCL), resins, and copper foil, driven by the higher performance requirements of AI servers [1][21] - Key suppliers for these materials include companies like Taiguang, Dou Shan, and Shengyi Technology [1][22] Recommendations for Material Configuration - Focus on companies with strong performance in the evolving material landscape, such as Lianrui New Materials and Shengquan, which are positioned well within the AI supply chain [1][25]