下游 AI 供应链与上游电子布材料更新 20250824 摘要 AI 算力需求激增，微软和谷歌等公司的数据显示算力需求高速增长，推 动 AI 投资逻辑完善。四大云厂商预计在 2026 年资本开支达 4,700 亿美 元，全球总资本开支预计 2027 年达 1 万亿美元，同比增速约 30%，欧 洲和中东主权 AI 投资亦显著。 英伟达 ASIC 需求强劲，预计 2026 年出货量达 100 万片，2027 年达 140-150 万片。若英伟达 2026 年营收达 3,000 亿美元，净利润率 55%，则净利润达 1,650 亿美元，对应市值目标约 5 万亿美元。博通等 ASIC 厂商亦受益，预计收入 800 多亿，净利润 400 多亿，对应市值目 标约 1.6 万亿。 AI PCB 市场需求旺盛，预计 2026 年达 700 亿人民币，供给约 600 多 亿人民币，市场紧缺。单 GPU 的 PCB 价值量在 200-350 美元之间。 ASIC 芯片数量增加带动 PCB 需求增长，交换机端口升级至 1.6T，价值 提升约 9 倍。 正交背板技术是 AI PCB 市场未来发展重点，采用马九树脂材料、Q 布 和五代 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **PCB (Printed Circuit Board)** industry, particularly focusing on the **CCL (Copper Clad Laminate)** sector and the **copper foil** market, highlighting the impact of **AI technology** on demand growth in the industry [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Technology Impact**: The demand for upstream materials and equipment is expected to increase significantly as AI technology becomes more integrated into various sectors, particularly in China [1][2][3]. - **Strong CCL Market Performance**: The CCL industry has shown robust performance with full orders and instances of explosive order growth since May. The price increase cycle is expected to extend, driven by rising copper prices and strong demand for high-end products [1][4][5]. - **Price Increase Logic**: The logic behind the price increase in CCL is based on the anticipated rise in copper prices and the issuance of price increase notices by companies like Jiantao, indicating strong market conditions [1][6]. - **High-End Product Pricing**: The likelihood of price increases for high-end products is low, as key customers are resistant to price hikes. Companies may shift production capacity from FR4 to lower-end products, leading to potential price increases for mid to low-end products [1][7]. - **Jiantao's Market Position**: Jiantao Integrated Board Company is highlighted as a standout performer during the price increase cycle, benefiting from both upstream and downstream profit margins. The company is expected to achieve a market valuation of at least **60 billion HKD** by 2026 [1][8]. Future Outlook - **PCB and CCL Growth Potential**: The PCB and CCL sectors are projected to continue their growth trajectory, with no signs of valuation bubbles. The upcoming earnings reports are expected to exceed expectations, further enhancing valuation prospects for 2026 [1][9]. - **Copper Foil Market Dynamics**: The copper foil sector is entering a second wave of price increases, driven by demand from major clients and supply shortages of alternative materials. This is expected to positively impact related companies [1][10][11]. - **Performance Expectations for Q3 and Q4**: The electronic department is anticipated to see improved performance in the latter half of the year, with significant increases in shipment volumes for various products [1][12]. - **Price Increase Drivers**: The price increase in copper foil is primarily attributed to Japanese company Mitsui raising its annual performance expectations, which is expected to influence Chinese companies to follow suit [1][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Projections for Companies**: Companies like Tongguan and Zhongcai are expected to see upward revisions in their performance as they secure orders and establish supply chains [1][15]. - **Pengbo Company's Performance**: Pengbo has shown strong recent performance with optimistic future expectations, benefiting from increased market share and improved profitability due to rising industry conditions [1][16][17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the specialty glass fiber industry, particularly driven by the increasing demand from AI servers and the upgrade of CCL materials [1]. Core Insights - The demand for AI servers is driving a significant upgrade in CCL materials from traditional levels to higher grades such as Grade 7 and Grade 8, with ongoing efforts to develop Grade 9 materials [1][4]. - Nitto Denko is a leader in the low dielectric constant specialty glass fiber sector, utilizing advanced materials like N1 glass and Ner glass to achieve lower dielectric constants [1][5]. - The cost structure of CCL materials shows that glass fabric accounts for approximately 30% of the total cost, highlighting the importance of enhancing the performance of all components in response to AI-related demand [1][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The specialty glass fiber market is experiencing intense competition, with leading companies like Nitto Denko showing strong performance amid rising AI demand [2][14]. - The market for specialty glass fiber has seen a revenue increase of 6.5 times from 2015 to 2024, reflecting the growing need for high-performance electronic materials [15]. Key Companies - Nitto Denko's electronic materials division is projected to contribute about 40% of the company's revenue and 85% of its operating profit in 2024 [1][9]. - Other notable companies in the CCL supply chain include Taiwanese, Korean, and Japanese firms, with a focus on collaboration with PCB manufacturers to penetrate the overseas AI market [3]. Product Development - Nitto Denko plans to introduce its third-generation specialty glass fiber for high-end applications such as 6G and AI servers by 2026, with further product iterations expected by 2030 [16]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of T-glass and low DK materials, which are crucial for high-speed applications and AI servers [22][21]. Market Dynamics - The supply of T-glass materials is currently tight, with production and expansion plans underway to meet future demand [21]. - The report notes that low DK materials are primarily used in high-speed switches and AI servers, with stable production expected to meet customer orders in the near term [22]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for specialty glass fiber is characterized by a mix of established Japanese firms and emerging players from Taiwan and mainland China, all vying for market share in the growing AI sector [2][3][24].

Summary of Conference Call on PCB Industry Industry Overview - The PCB sector is benefiting from AI-driven demand, with multi-layer board growth expected to reach 40% in 2024 and overall growth between 10% and 20% [1][3] - The PCB index has increased by 57% year-to-date, with public fund holdings rising to 3.2% [1][4] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of industry and technology during the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating significant potential for the tech sector [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The core issue in the PCB industry is the supply-demand gap, driven by unexpected growth in demand from GPU clients like NVIDIA and overseas cloud providers [1][7] - **Technological Advancements**: New technologies such as orthogonal backplanes and narrow board designs are enhancing PCB value. For instance, NVIDIA's GB200 72-card cabinet uses double the number of cards compared to traditional servers, increasing demand for high-density interconnect (HDI) products [1][8] - **Chip Process Improvements**: Advancements in chip manufacturing processes are leading to increased data transmission bandwidth, which in turn drives upgrades in high-speed materials and PCB architecture [1][9] - **Supply Chain Bottlenecks**: High-end PCB production relies on equipment from Japan and Germany, which has limited capacity. The construction of new facilities in Southeast Asia is progressing slower than expected, leading to a tight supply situation anticipated in 2026 [1][10] Financial Performance - PCB sector profits declined by 4% in 2023 but are expected to rebound to a 25% growth in Q1 2025, with net profit growth rising from -30% in 2023 to 56% in Q1 2025 [1][3] - Current valuations for leading PCB companies are generally below 20 times expected earnings for 2026, indicating strong growth potential and locked-in orders [1][11] Investment Opportunities - Companies with significant capacity flexibility, such as Jingwang Electronics, Zhongchuan Precision, and Shenghong Technology, are recommended for investment [1][12] - Notable performers in the AI equipment and consumables sector include Ding Tai Gao Ke and Zhong Wu Gao Xin, which have seen record revenues and profits [1][13][14] Market Trends - The global market for PB specialized equipment is projected to grow from $5.8 billion in 2020 to $7.085 billion in 2024, driven by increased demand for high-precision drilling and exposure equipment [1][15] - Domestic manufacturers like Dazhu CNC and New Flag Micro are making significant strides in the PB specialized equipment market [1][16] Upstream Material Trends - The PCB industry is experiencing a wave of upgrades in core materials such as copper-clad laminates (CCL), resins, and copper foil, driven by the higher performance requirements of AI servers [1][21] - Key suppliers for these materials include companies like Taiguang, Dou Shan, and Shengyi Technology [1][22] Recommendations for Material Configuration - Focus on companies with strong performance in the evolving material landscape, such as Lianrui New Materials and Shengquan, which are positioned well within the AI supply chain [1][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth and dynamics of the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, particularly focusing on the demand for high-frequency and high-speed PCBs driven by advancements in AI servers and other electronic applications [6][21]. PCB Industry Overview - PCB serves as a crucial electronic interconnect component, connecting various electronic parts to form predetermined circuits [7]. - The upstream of PCB includes raw materials such as copper foil, fiberglass cloth, and resin, while the downstream encompasses various electronic products including communication devices, consumer electronics, and automotive applications [8]. Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) Insights - CCL is identified as the core intermediate product for PCB manufacturing, providing essential functions of conductivity, insulation, and support [10]. - The cost structure of PCB indicates that direct costs account for nearly 60%, with CCL representing the highest cost share at 27.31% [15]. Performance Metrics of CCL - Electrical performance is highlighted as a core indicator for CCL quality, impacting PCB performance, manufacturing costs, and long-term reliability [16]. - High-frequency and high-speed PCBs are increasingly utilized in applications such as 5G base stations and AI server GPU clusters, with signal transmission rates exceeding 112 Gbps [16]. Market Demand for High-End PCBs - The global AI infrastructure market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach $124.03 billion by 2033, driven by rapid AI application deployment [25]. - AI server shipments are anticipated to rise sharply, with a forecasted shipment of 213.1 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [24]. Upgrading Server Requirements - The demand for PCBs is increasing as ordinary servers upgrade their specifications, necessitating higher performance CCLs [31]. - The global server shipment is expected to grow from 13.6 million units in 2020 to 16.3 million units by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.15% [31]. Market Growth Projections - The PCB market is projected to experience substantial growth, particularly in the server segment, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% from 2023 to 2028 [37]. - The high-end CCL market is expected to expand rapidly, with projections indicating a market size increase from under $4 billion to over $6 billion between 2024 and 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 28% [37]. Competitive Landscape - Japanese and Taiwanese companies hold significant advantages in the high-end CCL market, with major players like Panasonic and Rogers leading in high-frequency and high-speed CCL technology [38]. - The market for rigid special CCL is dominated by a few key players, with 13 companies accounting for approximately 93% of global sales [38].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" compared to the market, marking its first rating [2]. Core Insights - The printed circuit board (PCB) is widely used in the electronics field, with electrical performance being a key indicator for PCB iteration. It is referred to as the "mother of electronic products" [3]. - The demand for high-end copper-clad laminates (CCL) is driven by the rapid deployment of AI applications and increased capital expenditure by tech giants in AI servers. The shipment of AI servers is expected to rise significantly, with a notable increase in the number of CCL layers required for high-performance servers [3]. - Electronic resins play a crucial role in the performance of CCLs, with various types of resins being used, including biphenyl resin, polyphenylene ether resin, and hydrocarbon resin, the latter showing significant development potential [3]. - The properties of glass fiber and fillers significantly impact the characteristics of CCLs, with domestic companies expected to enter the supply chain rapidly [3]. - Investment recommendations highlight that Shengquan Group has successfully developed polyphenylene ether (PPO/PPE) resin and established a fully automated production line with a capacity of 1,300 tons per year [3]. Summary by Sections 1. PCB Industry Chain Overview - The PCB serves as a key electronic interconnection component, with its upstream primarily consisting of copper foil, glass fiber cloth, and resin. CCL is an important intermediate product in PCB manufacturing [9][12]. 2. High-End PCB Downstream Demand - The global AI infrastructure market is projected to grow from $27.94 billion in 2024 to $32.98 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.01% from 2025 to 2033 [32]. - The shipment of AI servers is expected to reach 2.131 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [32]. - The demand for high-speed PCBs is increasing due to the high data transmission speed requirements of AI servers, with some high-end AI servers already utilizing M8-level CCLs [40]. 3. PCB Resins - Electronic resins are the only organic materials in CCL production that can be designed for specific properties, significantly affecting the dielectric performance and environmental stability of the boards [57][59]. - Commonly used resins include epoxy resin, cyanate ester resin, and hydrocarbon resin, with hydrocarbon resin currently being a hot development area due to its excellent properties [80]. 4. PCB Glass Fiber - Glass fiber is a key material in PCB manufacturing, with electronic-grade glass fiber being a high-end product that provides excellent thermal and chemical resistance [96]. - The report categorizes electronic cloth into high-end, mid-range, and low-end based on thickness and functionality, with specific applications tailored to different performance requirements [94][96].

Summary of Lianrui New Materials Conference Call Company Overview - Lianrui New Materials specializes in spherical silicon powder, primarily used in epoxy molding compounds (EMC), accounting for approximately 50% of revenue, with a selling price of around 15,000 yuan/ton. Angular silicon powder is mainly used for copper-clad laminates (CCL), contributing about 20% of revenue, priced between 3,000-4,000 yuan/ton. Ordinary alumina powder is used for heat dissipation in new energy vehicles, also accounting for about 20% of revenue [2][3][4]. Market Position - Lianrui holds a leading position in the global CCL market with a market share of approximately 25%. The company has a broad customer base, including Panasonic and Doosan, but has limited cooperation with Taiguang due to historical equity relationships [2][4][8]. Product Development and Upgrades - The upgrade of CCLs is increasing the importance of silicon micro-powder and alumina powder. Starting from the M6 generation, spherical silicon micro-powder is used, with M7 using sub-micron spherical silicon micro-powder (priced at 100,000 yuan/ton), M8 using both sub-micron and chemical spherical silicon micro-powder (over 200,000 yuan/ton), and M9 fully adopting chemical spherical silicon micro-powder [2][6][14]. Revenue Growth and Projections - Lianrui's revenue growth is projected to double in the coming years, driven by increased demand for higher-grade spherical silicon micro-powder as M8 and M9 CCLs gain traction. The high-grade silicon micro-powder project is expected to produce 3,600 tons annually at an average price of 200,000 yuan, generating a total output value of 720 million yuan. The alumina powder project for new energy vehicles is expected to produce 16,000 tons annually at an average price of 20,000 yuan, generating a total output value of 320 million yuan [4][10][11]. Competitive Advantages - Lianrui's core competitiveness lies in its product structure and market coverage. The company has a strong reputation for product quality, slightly lower prices compared to overseas competitors, and excellent service and supply capabilities, which have strengthened customer loyalty even during the pandemic [3][9][12]. Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for higher-grade silicon micro-powder is expected to rise as the CCL market evolves. Lianrui is positioned to benefit from this trend, especially as overseas clients like Panasonic and Doosan deepen their cooperation with the company [8][15]. The average compound growth rate for Lianrui's sales over the past few years has been between 20% and 25%, with a minimum growth rate of 8% during economic downturns and up to 40% in favorable years [10][11]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Lianrui has maintained a high valuation, with a PE ratio between 30 and 40, even during periods of lower industry sentiment. This is attributed to its strong competitive position and growth potential, justifying a premium valuation despite lower stock price increases compared to other materials [12][15]. Conclusion - Lianrui New Materials is well-positioned for future growth, driven by industry upgrades and strong customer relationships. The company's focus on high-quality products and strategic market positioning will likely enhance its competitive edge and financial performance in the coming years [10][11][16].

Industry Insights - The Chinese fiscal and tax digitalization industry is experiencing growth driven by both government and enterprise initiatives, with the implementation of the fourth phase of the Golden Tax Project expected to connect approximately 300,000 medium and large enterprises to the tax bureau's direct connection system, leading to continuous industry expansion [3] - The market size for digitalized fiscal and tax-related transactions is projected to grow from 5.1 billion RMB in 2019 to 34.3 billion RMB by 2028, representing a CAGR of 36.5% from 2023 to 2028, significantly higher than the 9.2% CAGR from 2019 to 2023 [3] - The report highlights the potential for leading service providers to increase market share as the fourth phase of the Golden Tax Project accelerates in 2024, with Baiwang Co., Ltd. positioned as a leader in the industry [3] Company Analysis - Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) is expected to achieve revenue of 4.6 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with non-GAAP net profit projected at 738 million RMB, up 12.4%, aligning with previous forecasts and Bloomberg consensus [4][5] - Anta (2020 HK) has seen retail growth in July 2025 improve compared to Q2, although the brand's performance remains below expectations, with management maintaining a high single-digit growth target for FY25 despite potential short-term impacts from business reforms [6][7] - The company anticipates a controlled cost environment in FY25, aided by reasonable advertising and marketing expenditures, as well as increased bargaining power in rental negotiations due to rising vacancy rates [6] - Shengyi Technology (600183 CH) expects a net profit increase of 50%-56% to 1.4-1.45 billion RMB in H1 2025, driven by strong sales of copper-clad laminate products and PCB sales, which are projected to grow by 85%-97% year-on-year [9] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) forecasts a net profit of 3.6-4.4 billion RMB for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53%-87%, supported by strong demand for AI infrastructure and improved product mix [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, particularly focusing on the demand driven by AI technology and the evolution of high-end materials like CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) and advanced PCB types such as HDI (High-Density Interconnect) and AIPCB (3D PCB) [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Technology Impact**: AI has significantly boosted PCB demand, leading to a surge in high-speed boards and 3D PCBs. Companies like Shenghong have shown remarkable performance during this growth phase [1][3][5]. - **Material Upgrades**: The industry is moving towards higher frequency and lower loss materials, with a shift from traditional materials like PPO to more advanced hydrocarbon compounds. This trend is essential to meet the increasing performance and price demands from downstream applications [1][4][10]. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The PCB industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with companies like Shenghong seeing profits rise from 1 billion CNY annually to nearly 1 billion CNY quarterly due to high demand [7][9]. - **Domestic Supply Chain Opportunities**: The domestic supply chain in China is crucial, as local companies are well-positioned to meet the growing demand, especially in the context of the global supply chain being dominated by foreign players [9][20]. - **Future Market Projections**: The market for server-side PCBs is expected to reach 50-60 billion CNY by 2026, with total demand potentially hitting 80-100 billion CNY across various devices [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - **High-End Material Requirements**: High-end CCLs are projected to account for about 50% of costs in the PCB market, with specific performance requirements such as low dielectric constant and low loss factors becoming increasingly critical [16][13]. - **Technological Integration**: The integration of HDI and high-layer PCB technologies is already occurring, with companies capable of producing both types of boards, indicating a trend towards more complex and higher-layered PCBs [6][24]. - **Emerging Trends and Challenges**: The industry faces challenges with new materials like motor materials and PAFE boards, which have high performance but also significant processing difficulties. The market is also seeing a clear TCB (Thermal Conductive Board) landscape dominated by companies like Shenghong [18][19]. - **Investment Opportunities**: There are significant opportunities in high-end PCB innovations, particularly in materials that cater to AI applications. Companies developing advanced materials and technologies are likely to see substantial growth [19][21][25]. Conclusion - The PCB industry is on a trajectory of growth driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI. The focus on high-end materials and the domestic supply chain's role in meeting demand are critical factors for future success. Investors should pay attention to long-term trends and the evolving landscape of materials and technologies within the industry [1][5][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the critical supply constraints of T glass, a specialized material essential for high-performance AI servers, driven by the surging demand from major tech companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Microsoft [1][5][8]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - Major tech executives have been visiting Nitto Boseki, the sole high-end glass cloth supplier, to secure T glass for AI data centers, indicating a strategic move to ensure material availability [1][5]. - The demand for T glass is surging due to its rigidity, which prevents substrate bending during advanced chip packaging, crucial for AI chip production yield [2][5]. - Nitto Boseki has committed to investing 80 billion yen (approximately 550 million USD) to expand semiconductor material production, including T glass, aiming to double its capacity in Taiwan by March 2028 [5][8]. Group 2: Market Competition and Challenges - The supply of T glass has been particularly tight since the second half of last year, with many companies unable to secure additional capacity despite increased cash offers [5][12]. - Competitors like Taiwan Glass are looking to enter the T glass market, with plans to ramp up production by the end of 2025, potentially altering the market dynamics if they succeed in certification processes [10][11]. - The article notes that while new entrants are emerging, the production of high-end T glass requires significant time and expertise, suggesting that Nitto Boseki may maintain its critical position in the supply chain for the foreseeable future [12]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Nitto Boseki reported sales of 109 billion yen in the last fiscal year, a 17% increase year-on-year, with profit margins rising from 9% to 15.1%, largely driven by AI application demand [8].